Entries from Chemicals & The Economy tagged with 'IMF'
Recovery to be "weak by historical standards" - IMF
The good news is that the IMF thinks that the economy may have stopped getting worse. The bad news is that it thinks it may be a long time before we get back to earlier levels of demand. The main...
World Bank sees deeper recession
The chemical industry is always a leading indicator of the global economy. One of the blog's oldest friends used to be a central banker, and he made no secret of the fact that our discussions about demand levels were often...
Oil market "bubble" builds, as recession deepens
Stock markets may have rallied over the past month. But the International Monetary Fund (IMF) sees no cause for optimism. In March, it thought the economy would contract by 0.5% - 1.0%. Now, it is forecasting a contraction of -1.3%...
Credit crisis losses head for $4 trillion
To misquote the famous HL Mencken phrase, "nobody ever went broke under-estimating the losses caused by the credit crisis". Initially, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke estimated the losses at just $100bn. Then, a year ago, the IMF said its estimate was...
IMF says advanced economies to "contract sharply"
The IMF and World Bank continue to play leap-frog in reducing their global growth forecasts. In January, the IMF forecast growth would come to a "virtual standstill". Then, two weeks ago, the World Bank said the economy would "shrink" for...
G-20 plans still short on substance
The G20 represents over 85% of the world's economy. And there is certainly no shortage of major issues for government leaders to discuss when the G20 meets next month in London. But the blog is not over-hopeful about their ability...
Global economy to shrink in 2009
The world's major financial institutions become more pessimistic each time they report on the economic outlook. 6 weeks ago, the blog noted that the IMF expected "the global economy to come to a virtual standstill in 2009". Today, the World...
Crisis "more serious than the 1930's"
Last August, the blog noted that politicians were beginning to wake up to the scale of the current crisis. There are still many politicians (and businessmen) who still hope we are facing just a 'normal recession'. But last week, IMF...
IMF says "demand has collapsed", sees "deflation risk"
A year ago, the International Monetary Fund rightly warned that the world was facing a "serious economic slowdown". This week, it has updated its forecasts, and now "expects the global economy to come to a virtual standstill in 2009". This...
IEA revises down oil demand
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has cut its estimate of expected global GDP growth in 2009 to just 1.2%. It therefore expects the world to record its first back-to-back annual decline in oil demand since 1982/3. It says oil production...
IMF warns on recession's "social consequences"
Dominique Strauss-Kahn, MD of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), has a surprisingly hard-hitting interview today in Bloomberg. Casting aside normal central bank reticence he warns: • Their current $1.4 trillion forecast of global financial losses will soon be increased by...
The impact of banking crises
The blog has been searching the websites of the major central banks, such as the IMF, World Bank, Federal Reserve and Bank of England, for research on the history of credit crises. Several readers, including Paul Noble of Parsons Brinckerhoff,...
A low-key G-20 meeting
The first-ever G-20 meeting of Heads of State was a relatively quiet event, without the presence of President-elect Obama. Two main areas seem to have been discussed: • Regulatory reform, where finance ministers have been given until the end of...
G-20 tries to support growth
The G-20 was created in 1999, after the financial crises that had hit emerging countries from 1997 onwards. It includes the G7 group of major industrial companies, plus the main emerging economies, including the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China)....
Iceland calls in IMF
As the blog predicted, Iceland has been forced to call on the IMF for help. Finally, the country's leaders have recognised that their $20bn economy couldn't support the level of debt built up during the 'go-go' years. The pity is...
'The time for piecemeal solutions is over'
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has now increased its estimate of total sub-prime losses to $1.4 trillion, versus $945bn in April. It estimates banks will need to raise $675bn in new capital. And Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the IMF MD, has called...
Iceland on the brink
Last March, the blog noted an excellent article on Iceland by Gillian Tett of the Financial Times. She argued that Iceland was 'the first country run like a hedge fund'. And she worried that its banks might prove not 'too...
Another view of the Wall St crisis
Ken Rogoff was Chief Economist at the IMF, and is now a Harvard professor. His view on Wall Street's current problems is refreshingly different. Writing in The Guardian, he notes that 'efficient financial systems are supposed to promote growth in...
$514bn and counting
There seems no end to the losses being revealed by the world's major banks. The total has now reached $514bn. 110 banks and investment firms have now posted writedowns. CitiGroup, the largest US bank, tops the list with $55.1bn of...
'Grey hair and good advice matter'
The credit crunch began a year ago. At that time, the blog was very much in a minority when worrying that it might turn into something big enough to impact 'the real economy'. A year later, it is fascinating to...
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