Entries from Chemicals & The Economy tagged with 'IMF'
Budgeting for an L-shaped recovery
As companies finalise Budgets for 2013-15, many will be thinking long and hard about the implications of the IMF's new economic forecast: "The recovery continues, but it has weakened. In advanced countries, growth is now too low to make a...
IMF warns of lower global growth
Once again, the chemical industry has performed its role as a reliable leading indicator of the global economy. On Friday, the IMF warned their next forecast: "Will be tilted to the downside and certainly lower than the forecast that was...
Markets wait for oil price lead
The March IeC Boom/Gloom Index confirms the blog's sense that markets are sitting on a fence, waiting for something to happen. As the chart shows (blue column), it has risen back to 4.1, just at the point which divides strong...
€489bn avoids Eurozone collapse, for now
A month ago, the former UK Finance Minister, Alastair Darling, warned that the European Central Bank (ECB) had "to recognise they have to be the lenders of the last resort". He added that "This is far worse than the banking...
Recession may now be very close
German Chancellor Merkel's recent comment that "I don't see anything which signals a recession in Germany" is just one sign of the current complacency about the global economy within the Western political elite. Long-standing readers will remember Profs Eichengreen and...
An unmanaged Greek default gets closer
The Dominique Strauss-Kahn affair may come to be seen as a critical turning point, when the story of the Greek default is written. The then IMF head was en route to meet German Chancellor Merkel, when arrested in New York...
Wine price rises parallel those for crude oil
Many of the blog's readers have been known to sample the occasional glass of wine. So it thought new research, from the IMF (International Monetary Fund), on the linkage between higher prices for fine wine and crude oil, might be...
IMF warns on government spending
The global economy and the chemical industry have been boosted, since the Crisis began in 2008, by massive government stimulus programmes in areas such as autos and housing. Now the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released a new report, focusing...
Markets approach the "drawn-out fundamental downtrend" phase
Sell in May and Go Away" is the oldest rule in stock market investment. This week has certainly provided further support for it: • The major Western stock markets are down c8% • The major emerging markets are down between...
IMF targets bankers' FAT
We are often told that investment bankers are much cleverer than the rest of us. But sometimes, they do seem to lack common sense. Their behaviour since the Crisis, in paying out $bns in bonuses to the lucky few, seems...
Recovery to be "weak by historical standards" - IMF
The good news is that the IMF thinks that the economy may have stopped getting worse. The bad news is that it thinks it may be a long time before we get back to earlier levels of demand. The main...
World Bank sees deeper recession
The chemical industry is always a leading indicator of the global economy. One of the blog's oldest friends used to be a central banker, and he made no secret of the fact that our discussions about demand levels were often...
Oil market "bubble" builds, as recession deepens
Stock markets may have rallied over the past month. But the International Monetary Fund (IMF) sees no cause for optimism. In March, it thought the economy would contract by 0.5% - 1.0%. Now, it is forecasting a contraction of -1.3%...
Credit crisis losses head for $4 trillion
To misquote the famous HL Mencken phrase, "nobody ever went broke under-estimating the losses caused by the credit crisis". Initially, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke estimated the losses at just $100bn. Then, a year ago, the IMF said its estimate was...
IMF says advanced economies to "contract sharply"
The IMF and World Bank continue to play leap-frog in reducing their global growth forecasts. In January, the IMF forecast growth would come to a "virtual standstill". Then, two weeks ago, the World Bank said the economy would "shrink" for...
G-20 plans still short on substance
The G20 represents over 85% of the world's economy. And there is certainly no shortage of major issues for government leaders to discuss when the G20 meets next month in London. But the blog is not over-hopeful about their ability...
Global economy to shrink in 2009
The world's major financial institutions become more pessimistic each time they report on the economic outlook. 6 weeks ago, the blog noted that the IMF expected "the global economy to come to a virtual standstill in 2009". Today, the World...
Crisis "more serious than the 1930's"
Last August, the blog noted that politicians were beginning to wake up to the scale of the current crisis. There are still many politicians (and businessmen) who still hope we are facing just a 'normal recession'. But last week, IMF...
IMF says "demand has collapsed", sees "deflation risk"
A year ago, the International Monetary Fund rightly warned that the world was facing a "serious economic slowdown". This week, it has updated its forecasts, and now "expects the global economy to come to a virtual standstill in 2009". This...
IEA revises down oil demand
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has cut its estimate of expected global GDP growth in 2009 to just 1.2%. It therefore expects the world to record its first back-to-back annual decline in oil demand since 1982/3. It says oil production...
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