Entries from Chemicals & The Economy tagged with 'US Federal Reserve'
US unemployment rate now 10.2%
The US accounts for 23% of global GDP. Its economy is 3 times larger than the No 2 country, Japan. And most critically for the chemical industry, 70% of US GDP is consumer-based. Developments in US housing/construction, auto and electronics...
Housing markets to be slow next year, US Fed
In 2006, there were 2.2 million US housing starts. These were worth $35bn of chemical sales. Currently, and even with the support of an $8k tax credit, they are running at an annual rate of just 600k, worth $10bn. This...
Germany attacks central bank policy
During the growth years, it became fashionable for politicians to claim that central banks were "independent". But as the current crisis has grown, this has been increasingly exposed as a myth. As the blog noted back in September 2007, Alan...
25% of US sub-prime loans "seriously delinquent"
Speaking today, Federal Reserve Governor Elizabeth Duke produced some doleful figures about the current state of the US housing market. She noted that 25% of sub-prime loans, and 13% of near-prime loans, are now "seriously delinquent" - either 90 days...
A final push on the piece of string
Yesterday the US Fed cut interest rates to an all-time low of 0% - 0.25%. Once again, Wall Street celebrated with a major rally, even though the move had more symbolic than practical purpose. It made it appear that the...
AIG becomes a "zombie" company
2 months ago the blog raised 5 key questions about the $700bn US bailout. Yesterday's news about additional government funding for insurance giant AIG confirms its concerns. Originally, the US Treasury had insisted it would only support "healthy" firms. Now,...
"Fundamental reassessment of the value of virtually every asset"
"Our normal customers have no orders to place with us, and our credit department won't let us sell to others who might want to buy". The blog was given this plain-spoken assessment of current chemical market conditions by one of...
A fistful of dollars
The US Federal Reserve used just to manage monetary policy for the 12 'districts' of the USA. But now, it is going global. First, it opened unlimited "swap lines" with other G7 countries through the European Central Bank, the Bank...
'Financial panic' over? Fed lends direct to companies
The US Federal Reserve is now bypassing the banking system, and dealing directly with major corporate borrowers. These have been cut off from many sources of credit, as banks hoarded their cash. The impact has been immediate, with 1500 transactions...
And then there were none
20 years of investment banking as an independent activity came to an end on Wall Street last night. Bear Stearns was the first to go in March, rescued by JPMorgan. Last week Lehman failed, and Merrill Lynch sold itself to...
AIG rescued
'A disorderly failure of AIG could add to already significant levels of financial market fragility and lead to substantially higher borrowing costs, reduced household wealth, and materially weaker economic performance,' according to the US Federal Reserve last night. As a...
Lehman goes bust, Merrill rescued
The blog has never liked disaster movies, but it was quite a weekend for those who do. First, there was the hurricane hitting Houston and Texas. I used to live in Houston, and watching the pictures of the damage, could...
$514bn and counting
There seems no end to the losses being revealed by the world's major banks. The total has now reached $514bn. 110 banks and investment firms have now posted writedowns. CitiGroup, the largest US bank, tops the list with $55.1bn of...
US banks tighten corporate/consumer lending
Tighter lending standards, and higher spreads for borrowers, are continuing to create headwinds for the US economy. As far back as January, senior loan officers at major US banks were reporting that they were tightening mortgage lending standards. Yesterday, the...
'Grey hair and good advice matter'
The credit crunch began a year ago. At that time, the blog was very much in a minority when worrying that it might turn into something big enough to impact 'the real economy'. A year later, it is fascinating to...
Central bankers recognise a 'bubble'
For years, former US Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said that it was impossible to recognise an 'asset bubble' until after it had burst. Thus the dot-com bubble, and the US housing bubble, were able to grow without central bank interference....
$216.9bn and still rising
After a while, large numbers lose their power to shock. So Bloomberg and the FT have performed a service this week by reminding us of the scale of losses in the financial sector. They calculate that so far, US...
Northern Rock, Carlyle, now Bear Stearns
We have now seen 3 financial disasters in a matter of days: • Northern Rock, the UK’s 5th largest mortgage lender, was nationalised last month, after failing to secure sufficient funds to continue lending. • Carlyle, one of the...
Fed/IMF worry that US may see 'severe recession'
The Financial Times this morning reports that the US Fed fears that ‘the economic downturn in the US could turn into a deep and protracted recession of the kind that plagued Japan’. Clearly based on interviews with senior Fed officials...
Inflation worries increase in China, USA
China announced yesterday that inflation had soared again last month, reaching 8.7%, versus the government target of 4.8%. Part of the increase is clearly due to the effects of recent major storms. But with the US Fed likely to cut...
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