Entries from Chemicals & The Economy tagged with 'boom'
Financial markets at top of their trading range, again
Financial markets cannot make up their minds about the outlook. As this month's IeC Boom/Gloom Index shows, sentiment (blue column) remains exactly at the dividing line between optimism and pessimism. This parallels the behaviour of the S&P 500 Index (red...
Austerity levels jump
The blog's Boom/Gloom Index (blue column) reaches its 3rd anniversary this month. It was introduced to help monitor sentiment in financial markets, on the basis that "many markets are clearly being ruled by sentiment". It has since done a good...
Boom/Gloom Index stalls as austerity worries rise
EU policymakers like to pretend that the Eurozone debt crisis was resolved by the adoption of last March's new Treaty. An even more disturbing thought is that they might even believe their own propaganda. Who knows? But on the ground,...
Boom/Gloom Index and S&P 500 disconnect
The blog, like many readers, has become rather fond of the IeC Boom/Gloom Index since it was launched in June 2009. The aim to was to track market sentiment, and it continues to perform this task. It also throws up...
Selling the Rallies
There was a sustained rise in the number of wealthy Western BabyBoomers entering their peak consumption years between 1980-2000. In turn, stock market multiples rose (the US Dow Jones price/earnings ratio rose from 8 to 32), as investors valued...
Boom/Gloom Index reaches record high
The IeC Boom/Gloom Index is now 2 years old. It was developed as a measure of market sentiment, and so far its track record has been good: • It is now at an all-time high (blue column), which mirrors financial...
China battles to achieve a 'soft landing'
China's economy has been on steroids for the past 2 years. Faced with the loss of export sales after the financial crisis began in 2008, the government doubled bank lending overnight (red column above). It also introduced a $580bn stimulus...
Boom, Gloom and the New Normal
The blog is delighted to announce the title of its new eBook, jointly authored with fellow blogger, John Richardson. It explains how Western BabyBoomers are changing chemical demand patterns, again. We believe it will become vital reading for all those...
China's interest rates "have to go up more" - World Bank
What happens if you suddenly double bank lending in a country, and make it equal to 1/3rd of total GDP? And, as part of the experiment, add a further 13% of GDP via a $580bn stimulus programme? We don't know...
Fear of Austerity replaces hopes of Green Shoots
A year ago, the blog launched its IeC Boom/Gloom Index. This was based on the concept that markets are driven by both sentiment and fundamentals. And whilst fundamentals can be understood by analysing hard data (eg auto sales, housing starts),...
USA exits recession
The IeC Boom/Gloom Index (blue column) moved up sharply last month, as Western stock markets rallied further on news that the major economies were now officially exiting recession. Various definitions exist of recession, with most countries referencing 2 consecutive quarters...
"Green shoots" of recovery disappear from sight
A year ago, Ben Bernanke (head of the US Federal Reserve), startled financial markets with his claim that "green shoots" of recovery were now visible. This helped to lead to a major stock market rally, based on the sentiment...
Boom/Gloom Index slips again
There has been no New Year recovery for the IeC Boom/Gloom Index. It (blue column) slipped again last month, and is now back at September's level. A further fall in February would take it close to the levels seen before...
Boom/Gloom Index remains cautious
The IeC Boom/Gloom Index remains cautious as we enter the New Year. Meant to track sentiment in financial markets, it shows clearly that talk of 'green shoots' (green line) leading to a quick recovery has virtually stopped. Whilst the reading...
Boom/Gloom Index remains range-bound
The momentum-driven rally in financial markets has slowed recently, with many now in temporary trading ranges. And this is reflected in December's IeC Boom/Gloom Index (above). The Index (blue column) has been steady since June. Underlying fundamentals show no sign...
Buy on the rumour, sell on the news
"Buy on the rumour, sell on the news" is the classic indication of a weak market. A lack of follow-through buying reveals that market action is not supported by fundamentals, but only by sentiment and momentum. Friday's 2.8% fall on...
Green shoots disappear as new reality dawns
Sentiment is a very important influence in markets. When positive, as it has been since March, traders tend to 'look through' today's problems to a brighter future. But at some point, reality needs to confirm this optimism. The IeC Boom/Gloom...
Green shoots begin to disappear
September's IeC Boom/Gloom Index© is slightly higher than August. But the 'Green Shoots' level (green line) has fallen sharply, indicating that sentiment has become less positive about the staying power of the recent rallies in financial markets. The index now...
August's Boom/Gloom Index turns more cautious
Merrill Lynch's Bob Farrell was the doyen of sentiment analysts. He famously suggested that 'bear markets have three stages - sharp down, reflexive rebound, a drawn-out fundamental downtrend'. So far we have certainly seen the 'sharp down' period, and the...
Boom/Gloom Index rally continues
Last month, the blog introduced its new Boom/Gloom Index, designed to track sentiment in financial markets. The chart above now updates it to reflect the whole of June. The Index has continued to move up, and is close to the...
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