Entries from Chemicals & The Economy tagged with 'crude oil prices'
OECD Indicators paint a confusing picture
Leading indicators are useful reference tools, but sometimes they can also mislead. The chart above, from the ACC's excellent weekly report, seems to provide a good example of this problem. The blue line shows the official Leading Indicator for the...
IEA, OPEC, worry about high oil prices and CO2
The new World Energy Outlook from the International Energy Agency (IEA) spells out two major challenges. It: • "Identifies higher oil prices, coupled with the downturn in oil sector investment, as a serious threat to the world economy, just as...
Wal-Mart sees global price deflation continuing
The blog regards Wal-Mart and other major retailers as excellent leading indicators of trends in the wider economy. It was therefore concerned to see CFO Tom Schoewe reporting today that Wal-Mart continues to "operate in a very challenging economy", where...
China's oil imports not driven by domestic demand
A key driver for the rally in crude oil markets has been the increase in China's demand. The assumption has been that this confirms economic growth is recovering strongly. Crude oil imports have certainly been rising since Q1, and have...
US unemployment rate now 10.2%
The US accounts for 23% of global GDP. Its economy is 3 times larger than the No 2 country, Japan. And most critically for the chemical industry, 70% of US GDP is consumer-based. Developments in US housing/construction, auto and electronics...
Computerised trading dominates crude oil markets
The purpose of liquidity in financial markets is to enable price discovery. But when super-fast computers take over the trading, that purpose disappears. Instead, we have today's "correlation trading". Olivier Jakob of PetroMatrix demonstrates this with the above chart, which...
Oil hits $80/bbl
The blog should award itself a pat on the back, now its May forecast of $80/bbl crude has come true. And it is pleased to maintain its 100% record in forecasting the direction and level of oil prices. But it...
Cost, knowledge and speed
There is increasing evidence for the blog's belief that the auto industry is embarking on a fundamental shift in its approach. An interview in just-auto with Daimler's R&D head, Thomas Weber, provides some important insights into the opportunities that may...
Oil prices slip as floating storage comes onshore
Destocking is now well underway in crude oil markets. This is focused on the vast amounts of floating storage that built up in H1. According to a Financial Times analysis, April saw 56 ships being used for storage, versus a...
Oil price fall could support the US$
Pity your poor CFO. As well as keeping cashflow positive, they are also coping with major US$ volatility. In July 2008 it was trading at $0.63: €1, but then rose 43% to $.80: €1, before declining 28% to $0.68: €1...
Oil prices continue to plateau
Last year, OPEC meetings led to newspaper headlines. But today's session in Vienna seems to have slipped off the radar. Yet the oil market remains as important as ever to chemical companies. As the chart shows, the prime driver for...
OPEC says oil market still "fundamentally weak"
The latest OPEC monthly oil report paints a bearish picture of the market. It expects OPEC to supply 28.4mbd in 2009, down 7.5% from 2008 levels. And it forecasts more of the same for 2010, expecting to supply just 28...
China's bank lending soars
If you want a loan, go to China. That's the message from the chart, courtesy of Credit Suisse, which shows the staggering growth in bank lending since the start of the year. Now, even the People's Bank of China is...
Crude oil prices tumble on S&P 500 weakness
Sometimes, the blog gets lucky with its timing. A week ago, it wrote bearishly on crude oil markets, and suggested that "chemical companies need to keep a close eye on changing sentiment in financial markets". By Friday, oil prices had...
China's speculative surge slows
Q2 saw an outburst of speculative frenzy all around the world, and in a wide variety of financial markets. China's Dalian futures market saw LLDPE volume soar to 80 million tonnes - around 4 times total annual world demand. China's...
IEA warns on economic downturn, lower oil demand
Crude oil markets have risen 60% in recent months, as traders speculate on a quick V-shaped economic recovery. But there are growing signs that reality, in the shape of evidence of falling US and global oil demand, may be about...
The blog's 2nd birthday
The blog is now 2 years old. Its readership is very loyal, and continues to grow. 64% of current readers bookmark the blog, and read it regularly. And it is now being read in 2088 cities and 111 countries -...
Vitol warns on current oil prices
Vitol are one of the world's largest oil traders. Thus the blog was interested to see their CEO, Ian Taylor, suggesting that the recent rise in oil prices "does not sit comfortably with the currently available supply and demand data"....
Markets in Wonderland
Picture: www.amazon.com "Sometimes, I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast" said the Queen in Lewis Carroll's famous book, 'Alice in Wonderland'. Today would have been a good day for her to practise this ability, as she read...
Russia's chemical production tumbles
Last week's global production numbers highlighted the startling collapse in output from Central & Eastern Europe. This was the worst regional performer in Q1, and the blog decided to investigate further. Russian output is key to the region's performance. And...
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