Further evidence that the West is moving into a 'new normal' can be seen in the rising number of Napa Valley wineries facing foreclosures. The concept, adopted by the blog for its recent 2010 Outlook White Paper, suggests that the...
A year ago, Ben Bernanke (head of the US Federal Reserve), startled financial markets with his claim that "green shoots" of recovery were now visible. This helped to lead to a major stock market rally, based on the sentiment...
There has been no New Year recovery for the IeC Boom/Gloom Index. It (blue column) slipped again last month, and is now back at September's level. A further fall in February would take it close to the levels seen before...
"Buy on the rumour, sell on the news" is the classic indication of a weak market. A lack of follow-through buying reveals that market action is not supported by fundamentals, but only by sentiment and momentum. Friday's 2.8% fall on...
Sentiment is a very important influence in markets. When positive, as it has been since March, traders tend to 'look through' today's problems to a brighter future. But at some point, reality needs to confirm this optimism. The IeC Boom/Gloom...
September's IeC Boom/Gloom Index© is slightly higher than August. But the 'Green Shoots' level (green line) has fallen sharply, indicating that sentiment has become less positive about the staying power of the recent rallies in financial markets. The index now...
There are clear signs in the above chart that the inventory cycle has turned positive again, as customers restock. Globally, data from the American Chemistry Council shows chemical production now down 10.5% versus last year, after being 13.4% down in...
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