Entries from Chemicals & The Economy tagged with 'global downturn'
IMF says advanced economies to "contract sharply"
The IMF and World Bank continue to play leap-frog in reducing their global growth forecasts. In January, the IMF forecast growth would come to a "virtual standstill". Then, two weeks ago, the World Bank said the economy would "shrink" for...
Dow Chemical moves to Plan B
A month ago, after the collapse of the K-Dow deal, the blog suggested that Dow would need to move quickly to a Plan B. It added that "nobody would be very surprised if it now sought to renegotiate the proposed...
Chemical production growth goes negative
The chart, taken from the weekly ACC report, shows just how badly chemical production has been hit in recent months: N America. This region has been worst affected, with volumes down 12% in November versus 2007. W Europe/CEE. Both...
US entered recession a year ago - official
Last March, the blog supported Warren Buffett's statement that "by any commonsense definition, the US is in recession". I also wrote an article for ICB in April, "Building your defences", to suggest how companies could develop contingency plans to deal...
The aptly named Mr Darling
In August, the blog welcomed the statement by UK Finance Minister, Alistair Darling, that the 'global economy was at a 60-year low'. It noted that he was 'the first western politician to abandon reassurance and instead to focus on the...
GM, Ford, Chrysler may face bankruptcy - S&P
Ratings agency S&P warn today that a major recession might force the 3 top US carmakers to file for bankruptcy. Clearly they share JD Power's fears, noted yesterday, about the potential for an 'outright collapse' in global auto markets. S&P...
OPEC tries to hold the oil price
OPEC has called an emergency summit for 18 November 'to discuss the global financial crisis, the world economic situation and the impacts on the oil market'. Its president, Chakib Khelil, added that it was 'very likely' they would cut output....
The zeitgeist continues to change
The German word 'Zeitgeist' describes 'the ethos or mood' of a select group of people. Back in January, the blog noted a change underway in the financial zeitgeist. Today's Wall Street Journal, normally a cheerleader for the financial community, provides...
'The time for piecemeal solutions is over'
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has now increased its estimate of total sub-prime losses to $1.4 trillion, versus $945bn in April. It estimates banks will need to raise $675bn in new capital. And Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the IMF MD, has called...
'Demand and prices in free fall'
The moment the blog has long feared, and warned about, may be about to arrive. It appears that we may be about to revisit 1980, when for some weeks it seemed that demand for many petchem products had simply stopped....
Blue skies disappear
A year ago, the blog was in a minority of one, with its forecast for 2008. Its heading was 'Budgeting for a Downturn'. By contrast, the consensus post-EPCA was for $70bbl oil, debt market problems to be contained, and for...
Bailout passes, Wall Street falls
'Buy on the rumour, sell on the news' is the classic definition of a weak market. So the US stock market's reaction to the passing of the US bailout is a worrying indication that further problems may lie ahead. On...
China's export dependency grows
New light has been shed on the critical question of whether domestic growth in China, and Asia, can substitute for slowing western growth. It turns out, according to research by the Royal Bank of Scotland, that both have become more...
'Our entire economy is in danger' - Bush
In early August, the blog noted that politicians were beginning to recognise the seriousness of the economic situation. First, China's finance minister Liu He warned that 'an economic restructuring was inevitable'. Then the UK's finance minister said the 'global economy...
Eurozone manufacturing 'in recession'
Industrial production is the key indicator for chemical sales. And it appears a significant decline is now underway in manufacturing. The chart shows August's purchasing manager indices (PMIs) for most of the major countries/regions. India, Switzerland, Greece and Brazil...
5 key questions about the US bailout
The proposal now before Congress to authorise the spending of $700bn to bail out Wall Street contains just 849 words. It avoids the need to go into further detail via its suggestion that the Treasury Secretary should simply have unlimited...
The global stock market decline
Alan Greenspan's comments (below), led the blog to investigate how the world's major stock markets had moved since their recent peaks. All, as shown in the chart, are now in bear markets. Stock markets often forecast economic developments 6...
UK's largest mortgage lender rescued
Another day, another rescue. This time on the other side of the Atlantic. HBOS, the UK's largest mortgage lender, with a 20% market share, announced this morning that it was being rescued via a merger with the Lloyds TSB bank....
AIG rescued
'A disorderly failure of AIG could add to already significant levels of financial market fragility and lead to substantially higher borrowing costs, reduced household wealth, and materially weaker economic performance,' according to the US Federal Reserve last night. As a...
The 'Minsky moment' unfolds
Pimco, the world's largest bond fund, have repeated their belief that we are facing a 'Minsky moment', named after Hyman Minsky (pictured). His insight was that a long period of stability, such as that experienced over the past decade, eventually...
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