Entries from Chemicals & The Economy tagged with 'oil prices'
TOTAL warn on oil supplies
TOTAL's CEO, Christophe de Margerie, has become even more pessimistic on the future of oil supplies. In 2007, when prices were rising, he suggested it would be very difficult for production to reach even 100mbd, versus the 130 mbd or...
Saudi plays hard-ball on oil prices
A month ago, with WTI at $70/bbl, the blog suggested that: "If refiners are forced to cut runs for December, then it would be hard for OPEC to cut its own production quickly enough to compensate. In that case, a...
Saudi Arabia calls for $75/bbl oil
The King of Saudi Arabia is the most important person in the oil industry. He controls the largest oil reserves, and is the largest single producer. Previous Kings have let their Oil Ministers do the talking at OPEC meetings, and...
IEA says "world's energy system at crossroads"
The International Energy Agency (IEA) is the global energy watchdog. Its new annual report, just published, says "the world's energy system is at a crossroads", and adds that "current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable". As...
Russia's economy stalls
A few months ago, Russia's economy seemed to be recovering from its problems in the late 1990's. High prices meant oil revenues were increasing, and the currency was strong. Now, the combination of the oil price collapse and the credit...
The "crystal blog"
The blog's forecasting record is reviewed in ICIS Chemical Business this week. Click here if you would like a copy. The blog's aim is to "highlight relevant information for the busy executive, and to provide relevant and actionable analysis of...
4 tips for survival
Last month, the blog titled its 2009 Outlook, Budgeting for Survival. This week, the Financial Times has begun a series on developing recession survival strategy. Its key tips are: • Manage your cash. Don't spend money unnecessarily. • Keep a...
TOTAL focus on lower debt, higher oil prices
TOTAL have adopted a very clear strategy for surviving the downturn. The results statement today particularly highlights their success in strengthening their balance sheet. Net debt to equity now stands at just 15.4%, whilst they are "maintaining a high-level of...
Asian naphtha falls below $300/t
ICIS is reporting today that Shell sold open spec naphtha to Cargill at $267 CFR Japan, for the first half of January. Normally the naphtha: crude ratio is around 9.5: 1. But with January Brent at $66/bbl, the ratio is...
Oil producers at a crossroads
The blog has been thinking about last week's leaked report from the International Energy Agency (IEA). This said that the world needs "to invest $360bn each year until 2030 to replace falling oil production and increase supply". The IEA based...
OPEC cuts production, worries about demand
Two main factors weigh on oil markets. The first, as PetroMatrix note in their latest weekly report, is that speculative players in virtually all commodity markets are being forced to deleverage their positions, and so "the bottom will be dependent...
Oil futures focus on $50/bbl for December
Futures markets are taking an increasingly gloomy view of oil demand. And over the past 2 weeks, the volume of NYMEX contracts to sell crude at $50/bbl has soared 50-fold. But so far, as the blog expected, physical prices have...
Budgeting for survival
The blog prefers to be optimistic. But 30 years in the chemical industry has taught it to be extremely realistic. So its motto for 2009 Budgets is 'batten down the hatches'. Chemical companies are likely to be sailing in some...
OPEC bites the bullet
Events have moved quickly in oil markets in recent days. Last week, when oil was at $80/bbl, the blog argued that OPEC risked having to defend a $50/bbl price, by delaying production cuts until its 18 November meeting. Last night,...
Recession almost certainly now underway
Asian naphtha spreads versus crude oil have fallen to all-time lows. Dubai crude was reported at c$80/bbl last week, whilst naphtha was $30/bbl lower, at a price of only $50/bbl. This shows an extreme lack of demand for naphtha, and...
OPEC tries to hold $70/bbl oil
OPEC has called an emergency meeting for 18 November to discuss measures to combat collapsing oil prices. But as the blog noted last week, by then they could be looking to defend $50/bbl. And it seems Saudi Arabia agrees. Market...
OPEC says oil market 'over-supplied'
This morning, the blog is awarding itself a pat on the back. This is because, almost alone, it forecast in mid-July that oil prices 'could easily fall $50/bbl to $100/bbl' in the absence of any military action on Iran. And...
'The price of all assets will go down'
'Deleveraging' is an ugly word, and it has ugly implications. Bill Gross of Pimco, who manages the world's largest bond fund, has done us all a favour by trying to explain its impact, and why it is likely to continue...
August highlights
Many readers have been out of the office during August on a well-deserved break. I am therefore highlighting below the main postings over the past month, in the hope this will help them to catch up quickly on key developments...
Oil prices - the Iran factor
Oil price movements are now dominated by the Iranian nuclear issue. Last month, they jumped $10/bbl to $146/bbl as news leaked of Israel's training exercise against Iran's nuclear sites. I've since talked to someone who was on holiday in Southern...
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