Entries from Chemicals & The Economy tagged with 'recession'
Drug supplies cut to Greece as capital controls return to Europe
Don't be surprised if your finance team starts working even longer hours over the next few weeks. Not only will they have to worry about revising profit forecasts and working capital issues, as demand weakens in some core markets....
S&P 500 hits new record as Kem One files for bankruptcy
The divergence between the real world and financial markets was sharply clarified last week: • The world's major stock index, the US S&P 500, hit a record new closing high of 1569 • Sadly, Europe's 3rd largest PVC producer, Kem...
Demand weakness spreads across Europe and Asia
The blog was in sober mood when giving its usual New Year Outlook in January, warning that "renewed global recession appears to be the major risk facing us at the start of 2013". Developments since then only reinforce its caution....
Lanxess temporarily closes plants, as demand remains slow
Chemical markets continue to paint a very worrying picture of the state of the global economy. There has been no improvement in demand over the past week, since the blog first raised the alarm. Instead, plants are being temporarily closed...
Company results show few signs of any upturn
Economic recovery is already underway, according to the optimists who have bid up financial markets in recent weeks. But the blog's quarterly review of company results shows little evidence of it on the ground. Phrases such as 'challenging', 'economic uncertainty',...
Global economy faces difficult 2013
Its now 4 years since the blog published its first New Year Outlook in ICB. Then it was in a small minority when advising CEOs "to prepare for a marathon not a sprint" in dealing with the financial crisis. And...
Q3 results remain in downward trend
The blog's quarterly survey of chemical industry results shows the downward trend continued in Q3. Some companies remain untouched by the mainstream problems, but they are now clearly in the minority: • Bayer remain optimistic, and DuPont hopeful that problems...
IMF warns on recession risk as Political, Social worries rise
When the economy is running well, most people tend to get on with their lives. That was the case during the 1982-2007 SuperCycle, when growth was almost constant. But today's greater economic uncertainties translate into a growing role for Political...
Buyers start selling benzene as demand disappears
What happens if prices stay unaffordable for so long, that the consumer eventually stops buying? Younger readers may not remember such a period, as it last happened in the early 1980s, before the SuperCycle began. But it looks as though...
'Moving forward in volatile times' the motto for H2
The chemical industry has a long track record as a leading indicator for the global economy. Its position in the value chain means that it sees what is happening upstream in energy markets, and downstream in consumer markets. Anyone studying...
Oil markets break out of their 'triangle'
There has never been any fundamental basis for the rise in oil prices over the past 3 years: • At no time has there been any actual shortage of product • In fact, inventories have always been at comfortable levels...
Europe's banks turn to bullfight loans
The blog's IeC Boom/Gloom sentiment indicator (blue column) continues to be neutral on the outlook. As the chart shows, this is quite unlike its performance in early 2009. Then it rose rapidly from February - accurately forecasting the major recovery...
The banana skin risk
This week's news provided more evidence to support the blog's fear that the global economy is close to recession: • The German economy, Europe's motor, saw negative growth in Q4 • US retail sales grew just 0.1% in December, despite...
Oil prices hit record annual level in 2011
High oil prices are a bad thing for the global economy, and for the chemical industry, 2011 was therefore a very bad year indeed. Brent oil prices, the global benchmark, averaged $111/bbl in 2011. This is higher even than in...
2012 Budgets
The blog will publish its fifth annual Budget Outlook next weekend. As usual, it is therefore time to review last year's Outlook. Past performance may not be a perfect guide to future outcomes. But it is one of the best...
Global oil bill now 5% of GDP
The world has suffered a recession every time the oil price has reached current levels. And as the blog has warned for months, this time is unlikely to be different. The reason is captured in the above chart. This uses:...
Groundhog Day again as Quarter 4 starts
The great film comedy Groundhog Day saw Bill Murray doomed to repeat the same day in his life, until he learnt to become a better person. Sadly, financial markets have yet to learn from his example. Every quarter, the investment...
OECD warns economic growth "close to a halt"
The IeC Downturn Alert has hopefully done the job for which it was intended. It was launched at the end of April, when the blog became convinced that the global economy was highly likely to enter a new downturn. It...
Boom/Gloom Index suggests downturn resuming
A recession is often defined as being when your neighbour loses their job. A depression is when you lose your job. Latest industrial production data shows output is falling around the world. And US unemployment is rising again, with the...
August highlights
Many readers have been taking a well-earned break over the past few weeks. The blog also continues to gain large numbers of new readers, as the financial crisis intensifies. As usual, therefore, it is highlighting key posts during August, to...
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