Entries from Chemicals & The Economy tagged with 'recession'
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UK downturn follows the 1930/34 path
Politicians and analysts often focus on selling dreams. Otherwise, we might not be tempted to buy their promises of better times ahead. But those running businesses have to remain realistic. BASF's CEO, Jurgen Hambrecht, did exactly that in his comments...
EU chemicals volume down 10% versus 2005 levels
The above chart, from Moncef Hadhri's excellent monthly report from CEFIC (the European chemical industry association) provides an interesting snapshot of the state of the EU chemical industry. On the positive side, it shows that recovery from the destocking period...
Central banks warn on likely growth rates
Coincidentally, both the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England yesterday signalled the probable end of the 'the recession' yesterday. But as the blog noted last month, statistics don't tell the whole story. The issue is that economists usually...
Restocking continues, consumers become more frugal
There are clear signs in the above chart that the inventory cycle has turned positive again, as customers restock. Globally, data from the American Chemistry Council shows chemical production now down 10.5% versus last year, after being 13.4% down in...
OPEC says oil market still "fundamentally weak"
The latest OPEC monthly oil report paints a bearish picture of the market. It expects OPEC to supply 28.4mbd in 2009, down 7.5% from 2008 levels. And it forecasts more of the same for 2010, expecting to supply just 28...
August's Boom/Gloom Index turns more cautious
Merrill Lynch's Bob Farrell was the doyen of sentiment analysts. He famously suggested that 'bear markets have three stages - sharp down, reflexive rebound, a drawn-out fundamental downtrend'. So far we have certainly seen the 'sharp down' period, and the...
The blog was right on US GDP
In May 2008, the blog aligned itself with Harvard's Prof Martin Feldstein, who declared that the Q1 2008 US GDP report was "grossly misleading". Feldstein, after all, was in a position to know, as he was then chairman of the...
Lies, damn lies, and statistics
Source: Chartoftheday.com There are "lies, damn lies, and statistics" according to Mark Twain, the famous American humorist. His argument was that statistics are often (a) untrue* and (b) used without the necessary context. Last week provided a perfect example of...
Chemical production stabilises as destocking ends
The excellent weekly report from the American Chemistry Council (ACC) has a number of interesting insights: • As the chart shows, global chemical production seems to have bottomed. All regions are, however, now showing a decline versus 2008. • Separately,...
Dow aligns US ethylene balances
Capacity closures are always hard to achieve in the petchem industry: • First, these are a 'zero sum game' - if I shut my plant, then other producers gain in terms of overall operating rates and margins, at my expense...
Boom/Gloom Index rally continues
Last month, the blog introduced its new Boom/Gloom Index, designed to track sentiment in financial markets. The chart above now updates it to reflect the whole of June. The Index has continued to move up, and is close to the...
World Bank sees deeper recession
The chemical industry is always a leading indicator of the global economy. One of the blog's oldest friends used to be a central banker, and he made no secret of the fact that our discussions about demand levels were often...
After destocking, chemical volumes still down 15-20%
The great wave of destocking is finally coming to an end. And it is clear that underlying global demand is well below previous "normal" levels. The evidence for this can be seen in the above chart, based on American Chemistry...
Industrial output decline follows Depression trend
Sweden is an influential adviser on credit crunch issues. This is because of the lessons it learned during its own major banking collapse in the early 1990's, which has close parallels with today's global crisis. Its central bank argues that...
The Boom/Gloom Index©
Markets are driven by two factors, sentiment and fundamentals. Fundamentals can be followed by analysing hard data. In chemical markets, for example, key areas include new housing starts, auto sales, industrial production, Asian exports, etc. This data can also be...
Markets in Wonderland
Picture: www.amazon.com "Sometimes, I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast" said the Queen in Lewis Carroll's famous book, 'Alice in Wonderland'. Today would have been a good day for her to practise this ability, as she read...
Saudi confirms $75/bbl oil price target
Back in December, the blog analysed statements by King Abdullah, and concluded that Saudi Arabia had a 'target range' for oil prices of $75 - 100/bbl. Yesterday, this analysis was confirmed by Saudi Oil Minister, Ali Naimi, who said the...
"Green shoots" likely to be "yellow weeds"
The full extent of the recent damage to chemical industry output can be seen in the above chart, based on new figures from the American Chemistry Council. The story is stark: • Global chemical output was down 14% in March,...
EU GDP falls 2.5%, auto sales down 12%
Continental Europe is now in its worst recession since World War 2. GDP fell 2.5% in Q1, following a 1.6% fall in Q4. Germany, often viewed as the 'motor' of the eurozone, saw its GDP fall a shocking 3.8% as...
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