January was, as usual, a good month for the optimists in the financial community. They filled the media with confident predictions of sustained and high levels of global economic growth. China will apparently soon be booming under its new leadership,...
Its now 4 years since the blog published its first New Year Outlook in ICB. Then it was in a small minority when advising CEOs "to prepare for a marathon not a sprint" in dealing with the financial crisis. And...
Many readers have been taking a well-earned break over the past few weeks. The blog also continues to gain large numbers of new readers, as the financial crisis intensifies. As usual, therefore, it is highlighting key posts during August, to...
In one of its first posts, at the time of the ill-fated Access deal for Lyondell in July 2007, the blog highlighted the strange divergence that had developed between the front pages of the newspapers, and their business coverage: "If...
The blog's regular review of quarterly company results presents a mixed picture. Compared to a year ago, some have certainly become more optimistic - Dow, for example, are now "confident in a sustained global recovery", whereas in 2009 they did...
When elephants fight, those around them need to be cautious. And this is the prospect for 2011-13, as the Western countries try to force the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) to export less and import more, the so-called 'rebalancing'...
The blog will publish its annual Budget Outlook for 2011 next weekend. And so as usual, its now time to review last year's Outlook. Past performance may not be a perfect guide to future outcomes. But it is one of...
Last month's IeC Boom/Gloom Index showing a worrying weakness in sentiment, particularly when the world's major stock markets had actually recorded good performances in July, albeit on low volume. But as the chart shows, this month confirms the downturn reading,...
There was good and bad news from the latest IeC Boom/Gloom Index. The good news was that the Austerity reading fell quite sharply. Markets have moved on from the Greek crisis. And confidence seems to have been restored, at least...
A year ago, the blog launched its IeC Boom/Gloom Index. This was based on the concept that markets are driven by both sentiment and fundamentals. And whilst fundamentals can be understood by analysing hard data (eg auto sales, housing starts),...
There has been no New Year recovery for the IeC Boom/Gloom Index. It (blue column) slipped again last month, and is now back at September's level. A further fall in February would take it close to the levels seen before...
US housing is still limping along the bottom. December's housing starts were only 0.2% above 2008 levels. Overall, 2009 saw just 554k starts, the lowest level for 50 years, despite the support of the $8k tax credit. During the Boom...
Will Beacham of ICIS interviewed me yesterday in London's Trafalgar Square. Please click above if you would like to see the discussion. Or click here if you would like to see Will's summary on ICIS news....
Pity your poor Purchasing Director this week. They know the West is having a cold winter, but they have done their analysis and can show you slides, such as the one above from Petromatrix, that indicate the US has the...
Blog readers have a wide range of interests. That is clear from the list below of the Top 10 posts in 2009. It also confirms the complexity of the chemical industry, and its fascination. In alphabetical order, it is...
The IeC Boom/Gloom Index remains cautious as we enter the New Year. Meant to track sentiment in financial markets, it shows clearly that talk of 'green shoots' (green line) leading to a quick recovery has virtually stopped. Whilst the reading...
Extended downturns, of the type that we are now suffering, generally mark a transition period from one set of business conditions to another. I look at what might be in store for us during this transition, in this week's edition...
Leading indicators are useful reference tools, but sometimes they can also mislead. The chart above, from the ACC's excellent weekly report, seems to provide a good example of this problem. The blue line shows the official Leading Indicator for the...
If you missed the blog's recent webinar, Simon Robinson (ICIS online editor) has kindly posted a recording of it. To access this, you just need to join the new ICIS Chemicals and the Economy Group by clicking here....
2010 should be a better year for the chemical industry, as demand grows in line with a recovery in global GDP. But a quick V-shaped return to the 2003-7 Boom years in terms of volumes/margins seems unlikely. Governments will worry...
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