Entries from Chemicals & The Economy tagged with 'recovery'
OECD Indicators paint a confusing picture
Leading indicators are useful reference tools, but sometimes they can also mislead. The chart above, from the ACC's excellent weekly report, seems to provide a good example of this problem. The blue line shows the official Leading Indicator for the...
Webinar recording now available
If you missed the blog's recent webinar, Simon Robinson (ICIS online editor) has kindly posted a recording of it. To access this, you just need to join the new ICIS Chemicals and the Economy Group by clicking here....
Budgeting for a new normal
2010 should be a better year for the chemical industry, as demand grows in line with a recovery in global GDP. But a quick V-shaped return to the 2003-7 Boom years in terms of volumes/margins seems unlikely. Governments will worry...
The concept of "escape velocity"
This being Budget Week in the blog, it seems appropriate to look at the views of Larry Summers, US economics chief, to understand his expectations for an economic recovery. His main concept is of "escape velocity", whereby the economy will...
Green shoots disappear as new reality dawns
Sentiment is a very important influence in markets. When positive, as it has been since March, traders tend to 'look through' today's problems to a brighter future. But at some point, reality needs to confirm this optimism. The IeC Boom/Gloom...
Recovery to be "weak by historical standards" - IMF
The good news is that the IMF thinks that the economy may have stopped getting worse. The bad news is that it thinks it may be a long time before we get back to earlier levels of demand. The main...
Current policies make downturns "more dangerous"
Some readers may remember the 2007 and 2008 reports from the Bank of International Settlements (the central bankers' bank). In July 2007 the blog titled its summary '4 risks to the world economy', and July 2008's was titled 'The difficult...
Central banks warn on likely growth rates
Coincidentally, both the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England yesterday signalled the probable end of the 'the recession' yesterday. But as the blog noted last month, statistics don't tell the whole story. The issue is that economists usually...
Benzene signals a market top
As regular readers will know, the blog believes benzene is a good leading indicator for chemical demand, due to its widespread use in the industry. Last November saw its price "on the floor", indicating a major downturn, and it remained...
August's Boom/Gloom Index turns more cautious
Merrill Lynch's Bob Farrell was the doyen of sentiment analysts. He famously suggested that 'bear markets have three stages - sharp down, reflexive rebound, a drawn-out fundamental downtrend'. So far we have certainly seen the 'sharp down' period, and the...
Boom/Gloom Index rally continues
Last month, the blog introduced its new Boom/Gloom Index, designed to track sentiment in financial markets. The chart above now updates it to reflect the whole of June. The Index has continued to move up, and is close to the...
The Boom/Gloom Index©
Markets are driven by two factors, sentiment and fundamentals. Fundamentals can be followed by analysing hard data. In chemical markets, for example, key areas include new housing starts, auto sales, industrial production, Asian exports, etc. This data can also be...
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