The blog’s 6-monthly review of major stock markets highlights their continuing volatility.
Last September, all the markets were down between 7% – 22%. Germany (dark green column) was the biggest loser, whilst the UK/US (blue, red) were least impacted. Only the US 30-year Treasury bond (light green) had increased, as US interest rates fell.
Please click here if you would like to compare with that chart.
Today, all the major markets have risen between 5%-25%, with the exception of China (light blue):
• Germany is the biggest winner, up 25% since September
• It is still just below its level in March 2011
• China is the main loser, down 1% vs September and 17% vs March
• The US/UK are up 13%/11%, and 5%/2% vs March
• Brazil (pink) is up 16%, and equal to March
• Japan (purple) is up 12%, but down 5% vs March
• India (orange) is up 5%, but down 3% vs March
• Russia (lilac) is up 9%, but down 11% vs March
Only one market has increased in both 6 month periods. This is the US Treasury 30 year bond. It was up 14% vs September, and 28% vs March.
This highlights the major risk to the current euphoria. Stock market investors, led by the high frequency traders, continue to chase momentum – up and down.
But bond markets investors continue to focus on return of capital. Thus the US Treasury bond markets, and those of the other JUUGS, retain fundamental strength.