Base oils

LONDON (ICIS)–Oil prices could come under downward pressure this week after Iran said its retaliation against Israel for the death of top military generals in an embassy bombing in Damascus is over. A weaker demand outlook for crude and worries that US interest rates will be higher-for-longer may add to the weaker picture. ICIS highlights five factors likely to drive benchmark crude prices this week.

15-Apr-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News from the week ended 12 April. Oil slumps by more than $2/bbl on Israel-Hamas ceasefire hopes Oil prices fell by more than $2/barrel on Monday amid easing tensions in the Middle East after Israel further withdrew troops from southern Gaza and signalled a willingness to resume ceasefire talks with Palestinian militant group Hamas. EPA’s final rule on US chem plant emissions could weigh on EO production – ACC The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) finalized a rule on Tuesday aimed at reducing hazardous air pollutants from chemical plants, which some think could weigh on production of key chemistries and could lead to higher costs being passed through to consumers. INVISTA to explore alternatives for nylon fibers business INVISTA plans to explore strategic alternatives for its nylon fibers business and has engaged Barclays as exclusive financial advisor during the exploration process, the US-based manufacturer of chemical intermediates, polymers and fibers said in a statement late on Tuesday. US East Coast PET bale prices steadily rise amid snug supply, rising beverage demand Despite historic patterns, East Coast polyethylene terephthalate (PET) bottle bale prices have risen only slightly and very steadily over the last several weeks. Crude demand expectations fall for 2024 as trends shift back to pre-COVID pattern – IEA The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Friday cut crude oil demand forecasts for the year, with rates expected to fall further next year as consumption returns to the pre-COVID-19 trend, increasing the odds of a peak in oil consumption this decade, the agency said. Argentina’s inflation up to 288% in March, but central bank cuts rates on ‘pronounced slowdown’ Argentina’s annual rate of inflation rose to 287.9% in March, up from 276% in February, the country’s statistical agency Indec said on Friday.

15-Apr-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–Chemical stocks in Europe have firmed in line with the general market in midday trading on Monday, as oil prices subsided and investor unrest eased despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Asia-Pacific equities had tumbled in earlier trading on the back of growing hostilities over the weekend after Iran launched ordinance into Israeli airspace late on 13 April. The Israel Defence Force (IDF) confirmed the attack, with Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari stating in a briefing on Sunday that none of the 170 drones launched from Iran had entered Israeli airspace, and fighter jets mobilized to intercept cruise and ballistic missiles had shot almost all of them down. The handful of ballistic missiles that crossed into Israeli territory were intercepted and fell at the Nevatim airbase in the south of the country, but damage to infrastructure was limited and the base is currently operational, he added. Lingering unease from the attack, and the potential for an Israel-Iran conflict to escalate further bled into early Monday trading, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index and Japan’s Nikkei 225 index closing down 0.72% and 0.74% respectively. Taiwan and India felt the chill more keenly, with the Taiwan SE and Bombay Sensex bourses closing down 1.38% and 1.14% respectively. European bourses were less unsettled on Monday, with Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 trading up 1.01% and 1.09% respectively, while the UK FTSE 100 was little changed at 13:10 BST. European chemicals stocks moved higher on Monday, with the STOXX 600 chemicals index trading up 0.34% from Friday’s close, with Solvay, Evonik and Arkema among the biggest gainers. The decline in oil prices also deepened from earlier in the day, with the value of Brent crude June futures dropping 87 cents to $89.58/barrel in noon trading. The fall in crude values represents a decline in the overall risk premium priced in at present in response to Middle East tensions, but they are a long way from a more comprehensive rollback. Oil prices have increased by over $8/barrel since mid-March. Crude and downstream pricing as of 12:00 BST Monday Product Latest Previous Change Brent June 89.58 90.45 -0.87 WTI May 84.74 85.66 -0.92 Naphtha 677.00 695.00 -18.00 Benzene 1203.00 1205.00 -2.00 Styrene 1800.00 1815.00 -15.00 An attack from Iran had been threatened for weeks following a strike on its embassy in Damascus, Syria. The fact that the response was telegraphed in advance, consisted largely of slow-moving drones and resulted in little damage and no fatalities, has reassured markets that there is scope for a de-escalation. “The fact that there was limited damage and no loss of life may also provide some comfort to the market, as it may mean a more measured response from Israel,” said ING analysts in an oil market note issued on Monday. Iran said it considers the conflict concluded and US diplomats are reportedly urging restraint in Israel, but further salvos, which will represent Iran’s first direct attack on Israel, means that tensions could rapidly intensify. “The US and allies are pushing for a diplomatic response, while the risk is that hardliners within the Israeli government push for a more aggressive response,” ING added. Multiple western governments have officially condemned Iran for the attack which took place on the same day that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps seized a ship passing along the Strait of Hormuz, according to data provider Xeneta. Any moves to sanction Iran or measures that could restrict the country’s flow of oil into global markets could tighten supplies in the short term, ING added. Focus article by Tom Brown Thumbnail photo: The bell ceremony at the Euronext exchange in Brussels, Belgium. Source: Shutterstock

15-Apr-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Oil prices eased on Monday as Iran’s attacks on Israel over the weekend were largely priced in by the market, according to analysts, but Asian equities tumbled amid concerns over recent escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Product ($/barrel)  Latest (02:33 GMT) Previous Change Brent June 90.24 90.45 -0.21 WTI May 85.33 85.66 -0.33 Concerns over a wide regional conflict in the Middle East sent Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 index falling by 1%, South Korea's KOSPI slipping by 1.69% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index declining by 0.79%, as of 02:45 GMT. "The [oil] market had already priced in some form of attack, while limited damage and no loss of life means the potential for a more measured response from Israel," Dutch banking and financial services provider ING said in a note on Monday. "While Iran considers the altercation 'concluded', markets will have to wait to see how Israel responds." Israel's five-member war cabinet convened on 14 April to deliberate on potential responses, but no decision was reached due to disagreements over the timing and scale of any action, according to news agency Reuters. Iran launched on 13 April missile and drone attack on Israel involving over 300 projectiles. Of the 170 drones and 30 cruise missiles launched by Iran, none entered Israeli territory, while a small number of 110 ballistic missiles reached Israel, Israel military spokesman – rear admiral Daniel Hagari said in a televised statement. Oil benchmarks had climbed on 12 April to their highest levels since October as players were anticipating Iran’s retaliatory strike on Israel, which the Middle East country blames for fatal strikes at its embassy in Damascus, Syria on 1 April. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied involvement in the incident. Worries over tightening global supply, as well as possible supply disruption amid escalation of regional conflict in the Middle East, have been driving up crude prices since late last year. Iran had stated that its actions were in response to an attack on an Iranian diplomatic facility in Damascus which killed a high-ranking member of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards and eight other officers. For the week ended 12 April, however, crude prices shed around 1% after the International Energy Agency (IEA) revised down its global oil demand growth forecast to 1.2 million barrels/day from 1.3 million barrels/day previously. SUPPLY RISKS REMAIN Meanwhile, the US might intensify its sanctions on Iran, potentially leading to a reduction in oil supply ranging from 500,000 to 1 million barrels per day and keep the oil market in a deficit for the rest of the year, according to ING. Iran pumps a little over 3m barrels/day of oil currently and is the fourth largest producer within OPEC. There is also the risk that Israel’s response includes targeting Iranian energy infrastructure, which could translate to even more significant supply losses. "Finally, if we were to see further escalation, there is the risk that Iran would attempt to disrupt or block oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 million barrels per day of oil moves," ING said. Amid potential significant supply disruptions, the US could tap into its strategic petroleum reserves to mitigate any shortfall, according to ING. Additionally, OPEC holds over 5 million barrels/day of unused production capacity, which could be activated if needed, it said. Should oil prices surge due to supply losses, it is expected that OPEC would utilize some of this spare capacity to stabilize the market, ING said. OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) are due to meet on 1 June in Vienna, Austria to discuss output policy. The group has maintained their output cuts up to end-June. "While risks are clearly elevated, which should keep oil prices relatively well supported, oil supply remains intact for now," ING added. Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman Thumbnail image: Flares from explosions in the sky over Jerusalem as Israel's Iron Dome anti-missile system intercepts missiles and drones from Iran on 14 April 2024. (Xinhua/Shutterstock)

15-Apr-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 12 April 2024. China Mar petrochemical markets mixed; Apr demand on seasonal uptick By Yvonne Shi 12-Apr-24 14:19 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Fluctuations in China’s domestic petrochemical markets were limited in March, yielding a mixed performance during the month, while a seasonal improvement in demand is expected in the near term. Tight intra-Asia container shipping space dampens recycling trades By Arianne Perez 12-Apr-24 13:34 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Major Asian recyclers are feeling the pinch of continued uptrend in spot container freight costs for trade within Asia since March. Asia naphtha demand slows down; supply stays ample By Li Peng Seng 11-Apr-24 13:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s naphtha crack, the spread between Brent crude and the chemical feedstock prices, hit a five-month low recently and it will remain under pressure in the weeks ahead as ample supplies, slower demand and firm crude prices limit any improvement in the spread. Asia ADA sees plant shutdowns amid supply overhang By Josh Quah 11-Apr-24 11:25 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s adipic acid (ADA) markets have begun to crack under the cost pressure and weak demand from the main polyurethane (PU) downstream sector. Fitch downgrades China rating outlook to ‘negative’ as debts pile up By Pearl Bantillo 10-Apr-24 15:16 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s fiscal challenges amid rising government debt and its prolonged property slump weighing on recovery prospects prompted Fitch to revise down its credit rating outlook for the world’s second-biggest economy to “negative” from “stable”. Korea trade body starts antidumping probe on China SM imports By Luffy Wu 09-Apr-24 14:18 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The Korea Trade Commission has decided to initiate an anti-dumping investigation on imports of styrene monomer (SM) from China. INSIGHT: Positive China Q1 data overshadowed by property sector gloom By Nurluqman Suratman 09-Apr-24 12:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China's economic narrative in early 2024 reflects a 'tale of two cities', with its ailing property sector once again playing the crucial protagonist against recent data which offered flickers of hope for the country's continued recovery this year. Saudi Arabia hikes benchmark May Arab Light OSP for Asian customers By James Dennis 08-Apr-24 18:15 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter, increased its Official Selling Prices (OSP) for its benchmark Arab Light crude for customers in Asia for the second month in succession. Oil slumps by more than $2/bbl on Israel-Hamas ceasefire hopes By Nurluqman Suratman 08-Apr-24 12:23 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Oil prices fell by more than $2/barrel on Monday amid easing tensions in the Middle East after Israel further withdrew troops from southern Gaza and signalled a willingness to resume ceasefire talks with Palestinian militant group Hamas.

15-Apr-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Friday cut crude oil demand forecasts for the year, with rates expected to fall further next year as consumption returns to the pre-COVID-19 trend, increasing the odds of a peak in oil consumption this decade, the agency said. The IEA expects crude demand growth to average 1.2 million barrels/day this year, an increase from October projections of 900,000 barrels/day but a decline from the 1.3 million barrels/day projected in its monthly oil market report in March. This level of growth is expected to slow next year to 1.1 million barrels/day, representing a shift back to the trajectory of crude demand before the pandemic, increasing the chances that global demand will peak this decade, according to the agency. “Global oil demand growth is currently in the midst of a slowdown… bringing a peak in consumption into view this decade,” said Toril Bosoni, IEA head of oil industry, and markets and oil market analyst Ciaran Healy. “This is primarily the result of a normalization of growth following the disruptions of 2020-2023, when oil markets were shaken by the COVID-19 pandemic and then the global energy crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” they added. Global crude oil demand 2011-25 (Source: IEA) Increasing fuel efficiency standards and electric vehicles comprising a larger chunk of the auto market are also affecting the rate of oil demand growth, the IEA added. Crude supply growth is expected to average 770,000 barrels/day this year, led by non-OPEC sources, particularly the US, offsetting a projected 820,0000 barrel/day decline year on year from OPEC+ cuts. Production growth could firm to 1.6 million barrels/day next year. Despite the projected demand declines this year, compared with growth of 2.3 million barrels/day in 2023, pricing has risen sharply in recent weeks, up by $8/barrel from early March to more than $90/barrel this week, on heightened geopolitical tensions and the prospect of a tighter supply-demand balance this year. “Russian refinery outages added to product market unease, while OPEC+ put pressure on some countries to increase compliance with agreed voluntary production cuts through Q2 2024,” the IEA said in its latest monthly oil market report. “Escalating oil supply security concerns are set against a backdrop of solid global oil demand growth of 1.6 million barrels/day in the first quarter and a more upbeat outlook for the global economy,” the agency added. In its latest oil forecast released this week, OPEC left GDP and crude demand growth expectations unchanged at 2.8% and 2.2 million barrels/day respectively. Thumbnail photo: An oil pump jack at the Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas play, Argentina. Source: Matias Baglietto/NurPhoto/Shutterstock 

12-Apr-2024

MUMBAI (ICIS)–Indian producer Mundra Petrochemicals Ltd has awarded engineering services company Nuberg EPC a contract to build its new 2,200 tonne/day chlor-alkali project in the western Gujarat state. “The project entails construction of the caustic soda plant within the 1m tonnes/year green polyvinyl chloride (PVC) project in Mundra, Gujarat,” Nuberg said in a statement on 11 April. Nuberg expects to complete the project within 15 months, without disclosing financial details of the contract. Nuberg EPC is a global engineering and turnkey project management company based in Noida in the northern Uttar Pradesh state. Mundra Petrochemical is a subsidiary of Adani Enterprises Ltd, which is owned by major Indian conglomerate Adani Group. The caustic soda project forms part of the Adani Group’s 2m tonne/year greenfield PVC project in Mundra. In March 2023, the company halted construction of the PVC project as it worked to secure project funding. A consortium of banks led by state-owned State Bank of India had agreed in July last year to finance a significant part of the company’s PVC project, according to media reports. The project involves setting up a 2m tonnes/year PVC plant in two phases with the first phase expected to be commissioned in the fiscal year ending March 2026.

12-Apr-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) is calling for smaller ending corn stocks, while for soybeans it is forecasting higher ending supply, according to the April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. For the corn outlook the monthly update is projecting not only the lower amount of ending stocks but also greater usage of the crop for ethanol and feed and residual use. Corn used for ethanol is being raised by 25 million bushels to stand at 5.4 billion bushels based on data through February from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report and weekly ethanol production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Feed and residual use is also being increased by 25 million bushels to 5.7 billion bushels based on indicated disappearance during the December-February quarter. With no supply changes and use rising, the WASDE said ending stocks are now projected lowered by 50 million bushels to 2.1 billion bushels. The USDA said season-average farm price received by producers is now down by 5 cents to $4.70 per bushel. For soybeans, the outlook for supply and use not only expects higher ending stocks but also lower imports, residual use and exports. The monthly update said the soybean trade is being reduced on the pace seen to date and expectations for future shipments. With the trade changes and slightly lower residual, soybean ending stocks are raised by 25 million bushels to 340 million bushels. The agency said the season-average soybean price is now forecasted lower by 10 cents to $12.55 per bushel. The next WASDE report will be released on 10 May.

11-Apr-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–ExxonMobil’s French affiliate, Esso SAF, plans to sell its Fos-Sur-Mer refinery near Marseille, France, along with fuel terminals in Toulouse and Villette, by the end of the year, officials announced on Thursday. The buyer is Rhone Energies, which is a consortium between oil and commodities trader Trafigura and Entara. About 310 Esso employees are expected to transfer to Rhone Energies. The sale is subject to regulatory and other approvals. Financial details were not disclosed. The sale of the refinery, which has a crude oil processing capacity of 7 million tonnes/year, is part of Esso's long-term strategy in France to maintain the competitiveness of its operations while guaranteeing continuity of supply to its customers in the south of France, it said. Esso will continue to supply the fuel market in southern France and the proposed sale will not impact its other activities in France, it added. Entara, which was established by former executives of Crossbridge Energy, will operate the Fos-sur-Mer refinery. Trafigura plans to enter into a minimum 10-year exclusive crude oil supply and product offtake agreement, ensuring that the refinery has a secure supply of on-demand feedstock at competitive costs and a reliable off-taker of refined products destined to the domestic market, it said. The refinery will continue to be an important contributor to energy security in the region and would benefit from Trafigura’s global trading and logistics network, said Ben Luckock, Global Head of Oil for Trafigura. Oil and petroleum products will continue to play an important role in supporting growing global energy demand during the transition currently underway to a low-carbon economy, Luckock added. Rhone Energies intends to invest in the sustainability of the site to reduce its carbon footprint while also investing in growth projects enabling further co-processing of biogenic feedstocks to produce renewable fuels. In related news, ExxonMobil Chemical France announced earlier on Thursday that it plans to close its chemical production at Gravenchon in Normandy in 2024, subject to relevant government approvals. That closure is entirely separate from the proposed sale of the refinery, officials said. Additional reporting by Nel Weddle Thumbnail photo: A worker walking past ExxonMobil’s Fos-sur-mer complex. Source: Guillaume Horcajuelo/EPA/Shutterstock

11-Apr-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–INVISTA plans to explore strategic alternatives for its nylon fibers business and has engaged Barclays as exclusive financial advisor during the exploration process, the US-based manufacturer of chemical intermediates, polymers and fibers said in a statement late on Tuesday. The nylon fibers business includes: INVISTA’s fiber-focused portfolio: airbag and industrial fibers The CORDURA businesses Five supporting global manufacturing locations: Seaford, Delaware and Martinsville, Virginia, both in the US; Kingston, Ontario, Canada; Gloucester, UK; and Qingpu, China INVISTA believes that there are other companies with a different focus and capabilities that could create greater value with those assets, said CEO Francis Murphy. If, however, through the process INVISTA finds that other companies do not value the nylon business more highly, it will continue to operate it, Murphy said. If INVISTA proceeds with a transaction, it would also result in a simplification and strengthened focus on its long-term competitive positions in the upstream nylon and propylene value chain businesses, it said. The nylon fiber assets are a major part of the current INVISTA footprint, “and it would be premature to speculate on the final structure of a potential deal”, it said, adding that details of the business and exploration process are confidential. Regardless of a potential transaction to divest its nylon fibers business, INVISTA will continue to supply its global nylon and propylene value chain customers with intermediates, polymers and specialty chemicals, the company said. Photo source: Attapon Thana/Shutterstock

10-Apr-2024