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With over 10,000 market insights every year, ICIS offers a global perspective on interconnected energy markets, referencing weather, shipping, chemicals, fertilizers and more. To learn more about the solutions we offer for each of the commodities below, please click on the relevant link.

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Energy news

Global energy transition 'visibly failing' – Aramco CEO

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The global energy transition is failing and the "fantasy" of phasing out oil and gas should be abandoned as demand for fossil fuels will continue growing, Aramco President and CEO Amin Nasser said on 18 March. “In the real world, the current transition strategy is visibly failing on most fronts as it collides with five hard realities,” Nasser said at the CERAWeek 2024 energy conference in the US. These include the need to reset global efforts to meet climate ambitions, the limited scalability of alternatives, the high costs of green energy alternatives, the needs of developing nations and the potential to further reduce emissions from traditional hydrocarbons, Nasser said. “We should abandon the fantasy of phasing out oil and gas and instead invest in them adequately, reflecting realistic demand assumptions,” said the CEO of the Saudi Arabia-headquartered energy and chemical company. “We should ramp up our efforts to reduce carbon emissions, aggressively improve efficiency and introduce lower carbon solutions,” Nasser added. New energy sources and technologies should enter the market only when commercially viable, cost-competitive and supported by adequate infrastructure, Nasser said. Despite ongoing energy transition efforts, hydrocarbons still dominate the global energy mix, with their share declining only marginally from 83% to 80% in the 21st century, Nasser noted. Peak oil and gas demand is also “unlikely for some time to come”, with crude demand expected to reach an all-time high in the second half of this year, he said. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in an October 2023 report that global demand for oil, coal and natural gas is set to peak by 2030. Likewise, gas remains a mainstay of global energy, growing by about almost 70% since the start of the 21st century, Nasser noted. "Despite the world investing more than $9.5tr on energy transition over the past two decades, alternatives have been unable to displace hydrocarbons at scale." The current energy transition is neglecting the needs of consumers who rely on affordable and dependable energy sources, Nasser said. “Unfortunately, the current transition strategy overlooks these broader messages from consumers. It focuses almost exclusively on replacing hydrocarbons with alternatives, more on sources than on reducing emissions.” Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman

19-Mar-2024

Americas top stories: weekly summary

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News from the week ended 15 March. US CPI inflation 'sticky' at 3.2%, may delay Fed rate cuts – ICIS economist US inflation, as measured by the consumer prices index (CPI), rose 0.4% month on month in February, leaving it up 3.2% year on year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Tuesday. LyondellBasell sees signs of modest improvement in Q1 – CEO LyondellBasell is seeing some indications of modest improvement in its businesses, particularly in North America and Europe, with packaging being the strongest end market, its CEO said on Wednesday. US Trinseo seeks to sell stake in AmSty Trinseo has started the process to sell its 50% stake in Americas Styrenics (AmSty), the US-based engineered materials producer said on Wednesday. US outage to boost March Asia-Atlantic spot acetic acid, VAM trades Asia-Atlantic spot trades for acetic acid and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) are expected to increase after supply gaps in the US and Europe emerged following an unexpected plant outage in the US. Potential for oil market deficit in 2024 as demand expectations grow – IEA Higher oil demand expectations and fresh production cuts from the OPEC+ alliance could push the 2024 crude market balance from a surplus to a slight deficit if the voluntary reductions remain in place for the rest of the year, according to the International Energy Agency. INSIGHT: US aromatics, refining output recedes as peak oil approaches Peak oil demand in the US could lead to a further decline in refining capacity, which will tighten supplies of benzene, toluene and xylenes (BTX) for downstream chemical producers. Unipar expects hardship in Argentina but Brazil PVC demand should recover Unipar’s operations in Argentina are set to face pressure from the current recession but a bright spot could appear in higher civil engineering activity in Brazil, propping up demand for polyvinyl chloride (PVC), the Brazilian chemicals producer said on Friday.

18-Mar-2024

Europe top stories: weekly summary

LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 15 March. Europe ethylene and propylene sentiment cautiously optimistic for remainder of H1 Given the better-than-expected demand conditions, with improved sales volumes and higher prices lifting many out of the mire that was 2023, the question on everyone’s lips is how long can we expect this state of affairs to last. Potential for oil market deficit in 2024 as demand expectations grow – IEA Higher oil demand expectations and fresh production cuts from the OPEC+ alliance could push the 2024 crude market balance from a surplus to a slight deficit if the voluntary reductions remain in place for the rest of the year, according to the International Energy Agency. Surging PET bottle bale prices threaten to ‘destroy’ Europe’s R-PET market Feedstock bale prices hit €930/tonne ex-works in Poland on Monday, prompting recycled PET participants to suggest such price levels threaten to destroy the R-PET market as they fear a repeat of 2022’s disastrous price volatility. Europe acetic acid, VAM contract talks for March focus on supply disruption March negotiations are underway for European acetic acid and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) contract pricing with security of supply a key influence on negotiations amid LyondellBasell’s force majeure in the US and other disruptions to global trade flows. Caution caps optimism as peak season arrives for Europe styrene market Spot activity in the Europe styrene market was moderate in the week ended 8 March, as players attended a key industry event, while cautious and conservative sentiment persisted alongside crosswinds from ongoing demand weakness and thin liquidity, high feedstock costs and reduced availability. Participants pointed to only slight improvements in demand and market optimism from levels seen in 2023. Europe cracker margins up on firmer ethylene, co-products pricing Cracker margins in Europe rose in the week on the back of firmer ethylene and co-product pricing, ICIS Margin Analysis showed on Monday.

18-Mar-2024

Singapore February petrochemical exports fall 1.8%; NODX slips 0.1%

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Singapore's petrochemical exports in February fell by 1.8% year on year to Singapore dollar (S$) 1.06bn ($791m) , reversing the 8.7% expansion in the preceding month, official data showed on Monday. The country's overall non-oil domestic exports (NODX) slipped by 0.1% year on year to S$13.0bn in February, reversing the 16.7% expansion in the previous month, Enterprise Singapore data showed. Non-electronic NODX, which includes petrochemicals and pharmaceuticals, fell by 1.5% year on year to S$10.1bn in February, in sharp contrast with the 21.1% increase posted in January. Overall NODX to seven out of Singapore's top 10 markets fell in February, but shipments to Hong Kong, US and Indonesia rose. Source: Enterprise Singapore Singapore is a major manufacturer and exporter of petrochemicals in southeast Asia. Its petrochemicals hub Jurong Island houses more than 100 global chemical firms, including energy majors ExxonMobil and Shell. EXTERNAL HEADWINDS WEIGH ON MANUFACTURING The weaker trade data for February follows the drop in Singapore's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI), which eased to 50.6 from 50.7 in January. The lower PMI reading was partly due to the Lunar New Year holidays in February, according to the Singapore Institute of Purchasing and Materials Management (SIPMM). A year-on-year recovery in Singapore’s manufacturing sector will be partly due to a low-base effect this year, given the downturn in 2023, according to UOB Global Economics & Markets Research. However, the month-on-month momentum could remain fundamentally weak in the first half of 2024 as external demand continues to be weighed down by global headwinds, it said in a note earlier this month. Tight financial conditions stemming from an elevated interest rate environment in the US and EU, and ongoing stresses in the property sector in China continue to dampen consumer and business sentiment. "Towards the middle of 2024, signs of a broader recovery in manufacturing could emerge as central banks in major advanced economies may begin to lower policy rates as inflation in their respective economies moderate and inch closer to the 2% objective, with the consequent easing of financial conditions supporting consumption and investment activity, implying a gradual recovery in external demand," UOB said. Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman ($1 = S$1.34) Thumbnail image: A view of Brani terminal port in Singapore, 22 November 2023. (HOW HWEE YOUNG/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)

18-Mar-2024

Asia top stories – weekly summary

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 15 March 2024. INSIGHT: Indorama exit from PET feedstock markets to spur China PTA exports By Nurluqman Suratman 15-Mar-24 11:42 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Demand for China’s purified terephthalic acid (PTA) will get a boost as Indorama Ventures Ltd (IVL), a global producer of downstream polyethylene terephthalate (PET), shifts away from expensive integrated operations. INSIGHT: Policies announced in China Two Sessions will impact domestic petchems market in 2024 By Jimmy Zhang 14-Mar-24 23:07 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China's Two Sessions earlier this month – the yearly meetings where its legislature sets laws and its advisory body offers policy recommendations – attracted attention from the market for the growth targets set and announcements on expected future economic development. According to Premier Li Qiang, China's GDP growth target is “around 5.0%”. US outage to boost March Asia-Atlantic spot acetic acid, VAM trades By Hwee Hwee Tan 14-Mar-24 12:26 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia-Atlantic spot trades for acetic acid and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) are expected to increase after supply gaps in the US and Europe emerged following an unexpected plant outage in the US. Asia caustic soda market could be underpinned by snug supply, limited vessel space By Jonathan Chou 13-Mar-24 15:40 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia's liquid caustic soda spot supply may remain snug in the near term, while demand could continue its gradual growth into the second quarter (Q2) of 2024. PODCAST: China Group III base oils market sees supply, demand changes By Whitney Shi 12-Mar-24 15:53 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–In this podcast, ICIS Senior Industry Analyst Whitney Shi and ICIS Assistant Industry Analyst Jady Ma talk about supply and demand changes in China’s Group III base oils market. Saudi Aramco '23 profit falls on softer crude; ’24 focus on downstream growth By Nurluqman Suratman 11-Mar-24 12:37 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Energy giant Saudi Aramco's net profit in 2023 fell by 24.7% to Saudi riyal (SR) 454.8bn ($121.3bn), weighed by weaker crude oil prices as well as lower refining and chemical margins.

18-Mar-2024

Potential for oil market deficit in 2024 as demand expectations grow – IEA

LONDON (ICIS)–Higher oil demand expectations and fresh production cuts from the OPEC+ alliance could push the 2024 crude market balance from a surplus to a slight deficit if the voluntary reductions remain in place for the rest of the year, according to the International Energy Agency. Q1 crude oil demand is likely to be higher than the agency initially forecast on the back of a stronger economic outlook for the US, which is likely to buoy total consumption growth for the period to 1.7 million bbl/day. A stronger early 2024 demand forecast drove a 120,000 bbl/day increase in full-year estimates, with the IEA now projecting 1.3 million bbl/day consumption growth. The IEA projection remains substantially below OPEC forecasts of 2.2 million bbl/day, but it has repeatedly increased its projections, growing 400,000 bbl/day from the agency’s 900,000 bbl/day forecast in October 2023. Supply declined quarter on quarter in January-March as demand firmed, dropping 870,000 bbl/day during the period on the back of extreme weather disruptions and voluntary output curbs from OPEC+. The cartel and its partners recently announced plans to extend curbs into the second quarter of the year, with the IEA saying in its latest oil market report that the baseline assumption is now for those measures to remain in place through 2024. “On that basis, our balance for the year shifts from a surplus to a slight deficit, but oil tanks may get some relief as the massive volumes of oil on water reach their final destination,” the IEA said. Declining onshore oil inventories, along with trade dislocations from Russia and the impact of Middle East tensions on ocean trade flows has substantially shifted the balance of reserves towards ‘oil on water’, according to the IEA. Repeated attacks on tankers in the Red Sea intensified this trend last month, with 1.9 billion barrels of oil ocean-bound as of the end of February, according to the IEA, the second-highest figure since the height of the pandemic. Despite growing 2024 demand expectations over the last few months, the IEA continues to project that oil consumption is reverting back to its historical trend as the pandemic-era rebound tapers off and electric vehicle sales grow. Non-OECD countries are expected to comprise the vast majority of consumption growth this year, but demand from China is expected to crater, although it will remain the most pivotal sales driver for the industry. “[China’s] oil demand growth slows from 1.7 million bbl/day in 2023 to 620,000 bbl/day in 2024, or from roughly three-quarters to half of the global total, under the gathering weight of a challenging economic environment and slower expansion in its petrochemical sector,” the IEA added. The agency estimates that the OPEC+ bloc had 5.72 million bbl/day of effective spare capacity compared to February, with 5.34 million bbl/day of that total from the core OPEC member states. One country, Saudi Arabia, accounted for more than half of total OPEC+ spare capacity, at 3.12 million barrels. Focus articled by Tom Brown. Thumbnail photo source: Photo source: Jose Bula Urrutia/Eyepix Group/Shutterstock

14-Mar-2024

INTERVIEW: German biofuels producer Verbio develops ethenolysis-based renewable chemicals project

LONDON (ICIS)–German biofuels producer Verbio is pushing into renewable chemicals with a €80 million -100 million commercial-scale ethenolysis project that will use rapeseed-based biodiesel to produce specialty chemicals. Strategic move to renewable chemicals; 17,000 tonnes/year of 1-decene, 32,000 tonnes/year of methyl 9-decenoate, (9-DAME); Produced from renewable rapeseed methyl ester (RME), using ethenolysis and innovative metathesis catalysts. Ethenolysis is a chemical process in which terminal olefins are degraded. In chemical terms, it is a cross metathesis. The "VerBioChem" project, adjacent to Verbio’s bio-refinery at the Bitterfeld chemicals production hub in Saxony-Anhalt state, is expected to be commissioned in 2025, Andreas Kohl, the company's head of specialty chemicals and catalysts, told ICIS. Regular production at the "first-of-its-kind" commercial-scale ethenolysis  plant should start in 2026, he said. Groundbreaking is scheduled for May. “To our knowledge, it will be the only plant worldwide to operate an ethenolysis process,” he said. 1-decene is mainly used to produce polyalphaolefins (PAO), which are used as group IV lubricants, Kohl said. The 1-decene market is estimated at about 500,000-700,000 tonnes/year, according to Kohl.  Producers of fossil-based 1-decene include INEOS, ExxonMobil, and Chevron Phillips Chemical (CPChem), among others. 9-DAME has applications in surfactants, lubricants, polymers and other specialty markets. While 9-DAME is currently not available on the market in larger quantities, Verbio sees it as a “platform molecule” for use in solvents, surfactants and lubricants, Kohl said. The Bitterfeld plant might also produce C18 diacids in various forms in the medium term, he said. Verbio has been in contact for a couple of years with partners and on request supplies customers with kilogram samples of 1-decene and 9-DAME from a pilot plant, he added. UNIQUE CATALYSTSThe company has developed a unique in-house process for ethenolysis, based on proprietary metathesis catalysts from its 100%-owned subsidiary, XiMo, Kohl said. The process allows the use of ethylene “as kind of a scissor” to split the biodiesel, he said. XiMo specializes in metathesis catalysts, specifically of "Schrock-type" tungsten, molybdenum and ruthenium complexes, he said. Richard Schrock, one of the founders of XiMo, was co-winner of the 2005 Nobel Prize in chemistry for his work on developing the olefin metathesis method in organic synthesis. To serve the ethenolysis plant’s captive needs, as well as the wider chemical industry, XiMo is investing in new capacity close to Budapest, Hungary The 10 tonne/year of metathesis catalyst project in Hungary, which will proceed parallel with the ethenolysis project in Bitterfeld, is due to be in production in 2026. XiMo’s metathesis catalysts “represents a new tool for the chemical industry", for use in industrial processes in the renewable, polymer, flavors and fragrances, agrochemicals and various other markets, Kohl said. STRATEGIC SHIFT TO CHEMICALS Verbio's biofuels are mainly sold into the energy market, “but this is not necessarily the future for us”, Kohl said. While the company has existing biodiesel-linked chemicals production (phytosterol and glycerin), it decided several years ago to expand in renewable chemicals in a bigger way – driven by an ambition to add more value to biodiesel, reduce Verbio's dependence on the biofuels energy market, and help "defossilize" the chemical industry, he said. “We want to become much more independent of the political decisions that are influencing the biofuels market, and chemicals will be a major part of the company in the future,” Kohl said. Although the chemical industry keeps working to reduce its carbon footprint, most of its products are based on carbon and will continue to be so, he said. The challenge, therefore, is to defossilize the industry, which means getting away from fossil-based carbon, leaving three main sources of carbon: carbon capture; recycling; and biomass, Kohl said. “Biomass is a very versatile, a very interesting source of carbon, and it is here today” as companies are already producing chemicals from biomass, he said. Verbio, with its expertise in biomass, is well positioned to expand in renewable chemicals, he said. With the ethenenolysis plant, Verbio will start to serve the chemical industry “with unique, renewable and biobased molecules with a low CO2 footprint”, Kohl said. “This will enable our customers to take a big step towards climate neutrality, saving CO2, attacking scope three emissions, and it will help to defossilize the chemical industry,” he said. The carbon footprint of the new ethenolysis plant will be “at least” about 70-80% lower than that of a fossil-based 1-decene plant, he said. Verbio is undertaking the project’s basic engineering and execution in-house, rather than contracting it out, he noted. FOOD VERSUS CHEMICALS Rapeseed (known as canola in North America) is readily available in Germany as it is part of crop rotation, Kohl said. While using rapeseed for chemical production could trigger debates similar to the “food versus fuels” controversy, it is important to realize that only about 40% of the mass of rapeseed is oils, he said. The remaining 60% is a protein-sugar fraction that is needed in cattle feed “to close the protein gap” and thus supports the food sector. If Germany did not have the rapeseed protein, it would have to import even more soya from South America, he said. He also noted that the use of biomass to make biofuels and other renewable products has been found to stabilize the overall agricultural market in Europe and provide farmers with sustainable income, thus keeping them in business. Verbio at a glance: Sales for the 12 months ended 30 June 2023: €1.97 billion. Employees: about 1,200. Operations in Germany, Poland, Hungary, India, US and Canada. Production of biodiesel and bioethanol: nearly 930,000 tonnes. Production of biomethane: 1.08 GWH. Existing chemical production: phytosterol and biodiesel glycerol (glycerin) CEO: Claus Sauter Headquarters: Zorbig, near Leipzig, Germany Source: Verbio Thumbnail photo source: Verbio Interview article by StefanBaumgarten.

13-Mar-2024

US CPI inflation 'sticky' at 3.2%, may delay Fed rate cuts – ICIS economist

HOUSTON (ICIS)–US inflation, as measured by the consumer prices index (CPI), rose 0.4% month on month in February, leaving it up 3.2% year on year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Tuesday. The year-on-year increase was slightly higher than January's 3.1%, and it was above a 3.0%-low from June, said Kevin Swift, ICIS Senior Economist for Global Chemicals. Given a tight labor market, the latest BLS report shows that inflation “is sticky” and more readings like this will push a first rate cut past the Federal Reserve’s June meeting, Swift said. (source: BLS) The 0.4% month-on-month increase was in line with economists' expectations and followed a 0.3% rise in January. Shelter and gasoline prices were the drivers behind the gain, accounting for over 60% of the rise, Swift said. Airline fares, motor vehicle insurance, apparel and recreation prices all advanced from January. Consumer prices less food and energy, a "core measure" of inflation, also rose 0.4% during February, the same pace as in January, and they were up 3.8% year on year. The CPI measure for shelter has been controversial and many economists feel it lags other real-time private-sector measures, which have been declining over the past year, Swift said. “This line of thought is that once the BLS measure catch up with these other measures, inflation will come down, thus providing room for rate cuts this year,” Swift said. Prices for services advanced 0.5% during February, and excluding health care, were up 5.4% year on year. SMALL BUSINESS CONFIDENCE FALLS Meanwhile, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported on Tuesday that its Small Business Optimism index fell 0.5 points to 89.4 in February – marking the 26th straight month the index remained below its 50-year average of 98. The low reading suggests that optimism on Main Street is tepid as inflation remains a challenge, Swift said. The share of owners citing inflation as their most pressing problem rose three points to 23%, making it the top concern for businesses in the NFIB report. Inflation supplanted concerns over labor challenges as the most pressing problem but hiring remains a challenge as 37% of owners reported job openings that they could not fill. “Small business owners continue to feel the effects of higher costs and tighter credit conditions,” Swift said. On the inflation front, only 21% of owners are expecting to raise their average selling prices and that is the lowest since January 2021, he added. Please also visit Macroeconomics: Impact on Chemicals.

12-Mar-2024

China vehicle sales snap three-month growth streak; Feb falls 20% on year

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s vehicle sales in February declined by about 20% year on year to 1.58m units, snapping three straight months of increase because of the week-long Lunar New Year holiday, industry data showed on Tuesday. Vehicle production last month fell by 26% year on year to 1.51m units, according to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM). Both manufacturing and purchasing activities in car market were muted because of the long holiday, CAAM said. China, which is the world’s biggest automotive market, was on holiday on 10-17 February for the Lunar New Year festivities. Post holiday, the economy continues to show signs of weakness amid a slumping property sector. The automotive industry is a major global consumer of petrochemicals, which account for more than a third of raw material costs of an average vehicle. Compared with January, February vehicle sales in the world’s second-biggest economy slumped by 35.1%, while production declined by 37.5%. For new energy vehicles (NEVs), sales in February declined by 9.2% to 477,000 units, with aggregated sales in the first two months up 29.4% at 1.21m units. In the first two months of 2024, overall vehicle sales increased by 11.1% year on year to 4.03m, while production was up by 8.1% at 3.92m. Thumbnail image: Car carriers are docking at the car terminal of Yantai Port to prepare to load cars for export in Yantai, Shandong province, China, on 3 March 2024.(Costfoto/NurPhoto/Shutterstock)

12-Mar-2024

Latin America stories: weekly summary

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Here are some of the stories from ICIS Latin America for the week ended on 8 March. NEWS Brazil’s chemicals output up nearly 8% in January Brazil’s chemicals output rose by 7.9% in January from December, despite the 1.6% fall in overall industrial output, according to the country’s statistics office, IBGE. Brazil’s automotive output up strongly in February as investments soar Brazil’s petrochemicals-intensive automotive industry’s output rose in February by nearly 25%, month on month, in a sign of a strong recovery in the sector, automotive trade group Anfavea said on Thursday. Mexico’s inflation falls to 4.4% in February Mexico’s annual rate of inflation fell in February to 4.40%, down from 4.88% in January, the country’s statistics office, INEGI said on Thursday. Mexico’s automotive output up nearly 8% in February Mexico’s automotive sector posted an increase in output of 7.76% in February, year on year, to nearly 320,000 units, slowing down slightly from January, the country’s statistical office Inegi said on Wednesday. Brazil’s Unigel halts fertilizers production on high natural gas prices Unigel is to “temporarily stop” nitrogen fertilizers production because of high costs and low prices, effective on Wednesday, the Brazilian chemicals and fertilizers producer said. Auto major Stellantis to invest €5.6 billion in South America to 2030 Stellantis is to invest €5.6 billion in its South American operations in 2025-2030, with Brazil’s Betim facilities set to greatly expand to produce hybrid vehicles, the global automotive major said on Wednesday. Petrobras finds no irregularities on Unigel tolling contract after internal investigation Brazil’s state-owned energy major Petrobras has announced the conclusion of its internal investigation into the tolling contract with Unigel, finding no irregularities, the company said on 4 March. PRICING Mexico's PET prices continue to be threatened by import in 2024 Despite the continuous application of import tariffs on polyethylene terephthalate (PET) from Asia, the influx of imports into Mexico, offering enticing deals, is effectively keeping PET prices away from notable price increases.

11-Mar-2024

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