The EU ETS Portal provides short- and mid-term price forecasts based on our behavior-driven market model, the Timing Impact Model (TIM). The model results are accompanied by ad hoc analysis and regular reporting. All underlying data, documents or other information is fully available in the portal in a structured way, making it easy to understand and reproduce the conclusions.
The EU ETS Portal provides detailed information on the EU ETS and all related markets in different granularities:
The daily updated short-term price forecast is based on estimated trading volumes from players with a natural position (compliance companies or CDM portfolio holders or auctions) in the market. Furthermore, short-term hedging adjustment, hedging speed-ups and other features are included in the modelling.
The forecast shows a one-week market trend (bullish/bearish) for the derivatives EU allowance (EUA) market and a strength indicator for the forecast. Historical correctness of the forecast is around 55%.
The monthly updated mid-term price forecast is also based on trading activities of compliance players and provides a price forecast for the next eight quarters. The price forecast also incorporates the latest changes of trading behaviour, the macroeconomic picture and political changes. Furthermore, the model allows for different scenarios because of policy discussion concerning the EU ETS or unclear timelines of other events.
The forecast is published once a month in our Monthly Report accompanied by an in-depth explanation of the changes in the assumptions as well as the biggest risk to the current forecast.
In our view, positions of compliance players are only driving carbon prices once they are traded in the market. Trading usually deviates significantly from when positions actually arise. Out of this reasoning the EU ETS Portal contains a full section where fundamental demand and supply are redistributed according to trading behaviour of compliance players to the point in time when they are actually traded in the market. This core of our analysis provides valuable insights for predicting price developments.
The EU ETS Portal contains a complete set of both historic and estimated emissions, caps and cap-to-emissions (long position means positive values). Data are presented both in overview tables as well as broken down by country and sector in a variety of formats. A seperate section contains the same set of data also for different reduction, back-loading and aviation scenarios.
Emissions estimates are based on a consistent modelling of the macroeconomic environment, with special focus on the power sector.
Power emissions estimates are updated daily to include the latest effects due to fuel switch changes and weather related emissions changes. All other estimates are updated on a monthly basis.
Cap estimates for the third trading period are calculated per sector, country and year. Furthermore, the allocation to new entrants from the New Entrants Reserve is included regularly in the allocation volumes. Data is also available for different reduction scenarios (eg, a 25% target).
Tschach Solutions provides all relevant data regarding the auctioning supply for the current regulation (eg, a 20% reduction target), but also for different reduction and back-loading scenarios. For this reason an auction tool helps to keep track of the scheduled auctions (separates the scheduled auctions in different types) and includes projections for the auctions per week/month/year up to 2020. An auctioning calendar includes all details of upcoming auctions. All auction data is available for download through our FTP site.
The Scenario section provides the possibility to assemble the fundamental EU ETS data in respect to different legislative developments. It provides data for different reduction scenarios (20%, 25% and 30%), different aviation scenarios (current regulation and intra-EU only) and different back-loading volumes and implementation timelines. The user can select for each option an independent scenario.
Tschach Solutions behavioural database covers extensively not only the historic hedging patterns of most big utilities but also the past selling behavior of big industrial companies. Data and qualitative information are displayed per company and in overview sections.
Our CITL Database provides the possibility to retrieve fast and easy CITL data in a user friendly form. Users can filter for (a couple of) countries, sectors and/or companies. The search function is based on Tschach Solutions’ proprietary company list that assigns each installation to a company and sector. In addition to the CITL/EUTL data the offset quota for the searched segment is provided. Thus, still open offset limits of the companies/sectors/countries can be evaluated.
To gather all relevant information on topics of special interest, Infoboxes provide the user with in-depth information about the topic in question, eg back-loading. The Infobox contains all information from different interim updates, research reports and other information sources of Tschach Solutions. Furthermore, background information about potential legislative procedures and implementation probabilities are provided.
For the convenience of the Data Portal user, an additional section contains a collection of important carbon policy documents such as legislation, official explanatory documents and official forecasts or scenario analyses.
A calendar lists important dates for the carbon market, such as auctions, EB meetings, meetings of EU Parliament Committees or European Council, important publication dates, regulatory milestones and so on.
We regularly update our clients, assessing the latest market-relevant developments. These updates are short, to the point and represent analytical reactions on upcoming news or discoveries by the Tschach Solutions team (eg, covering of voting events in the EU Parliament). The Interim Updates give you either new insights or an assessment of existing news.
Our Monthly Reports are based on the findings of our behavioural driven market model, the Timing Impact Model. The report focuses on topics of special interest, the latest changes in assumptions, the macroeconomic picture or political changes and condenses their market impact in a short report with a price projection for the next two years on a quarterly basis.
For areas of special interest, eg an upcoming carbon scheme, a heavy shift in behaviour or a political situation, Tschach Solutions develops longer in-depth reports. The reports focus on important issues to give the reader deep insights into a specific field (eg, Australia moving earlier to a floating price period, leading to significant EUA demand).
Tschach Solutions produces, on a weekly basis, the latest statistics on the CDM process for both registration and issuance. The report also shows the latest estimates on short- mid- and long-term issuance. Be up to date with the CDM with a weekly three-page report.