Ammonia Prices, markets & analysis
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Ammonia – Europe Transcript
ICIS reports on Ammonia on a global basis, with reports in Europe, Asia and the US.
At the same time, unlike our competitors we are able to draw on global resources in London, Huston, Singapore and Shanghai.
In Europe, we report on the key benchmark using the FOB spot price and also includes CFR prices for Africa and North West Europe.
In the Asia section we have CFR prices for India, Taiwan and Korea.
Throughout the week we speak to a wide range of people including producers, consumers and traders in order to obtain a broad range of accurate information for our subscribers.
All of our reporting is backed up by strong methodology.
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Prices for ammonia in Asia strengthened throughout the third quarter as a result of higher prices in the Middle East and plant turnarounds in Asia which shortened supply.
In Taiwan, South Korea and India, prices moved upwards constantly during the quarter, with the exception of a period of stability between mid-July and mid-August.
Prices in Taiwan moved up by $80-110/tonne across the quarter, finishing in parity with South Korean prices at $580-630/tonne CFR (cost & freight). Correspondingly, prices in India moved in a similar trend, up by $60-110/tonne between July and September.
End-users remained out of the spot market for the majority of the quarter, with regular contract cargoes covering their requirements. However, a number of spot sales were concluded between suppliers to cover delivery volumes in a tight supply environment.
Scheduled maintenance at the Yara Pilbara ammonia plant in Australia took the ammonia producer off line longer than the three weeks initially expected. When combined with the planned and unplanned outages at the Kaltim Parna Industri (KPI) plant in Indonesia, supply was shortened considerably in the latter part of the quarter.
Updated to Q3 2014
The benchmark Black Sea ammonia price remained relatively stable at $500-515/tonne FOB (free on board) Yuzhny for April and May loadings. However, the price fell by around 10% for June cargoes amid softening demand and increased spot availability in the Baltic and North Africa.
Against a backdrop of the tense geopolitical situation in Ukraine and uncertainty over the price of Russian natural gas imports, ammonia cargoes continued to load normally throughout the quarter. The deteriorating security situation in eastern Ukraine did lead to the shutdown of ammonia operations at Gorlovka and Severondonetsk in early May.
Major producers NF Trading and OPZ – which took one of its ammonia lines off line for maintenance in early June – had hoped the supply squeeze would generate some upward price momentum. However, weak urea prices meant extra ammonia cargoes were available in the Baltic, with Yara International and Koch Industries buying around 100,000 tonnes between them.
These purchases by regular Black Sea buyers were compounded by improved spot availability in Algeria, where Moroccan phosphate giant OCP sealed a spot deal for 40,000 tonnes of Sorfert ammonia. These deals placed further downward pressure on June cargoes in Yuzhny, with prices falling to $450-465/tonne FOB.
Updated to Q2 2014
Domestic ammonium phosphate demand decreased significantly in April, which saw a growing number of producers diverting their attention to export market. However, most market participants held a pessimistic market outlook for April as the export market conditions were poor in the previous year and as Indian buyers held lower buying ideas in the first quarter of the year.
In May however, many monoammonium phosphate (MAP) and diammonium phosphate (DAP) producers were not inclined to deliver a large amount of cargoes to ports as they did in the previous year, in order to avoid increasing opportunities for price cuts by Indian buyers. Plant operating rates decreased to 50-60% because of producers’ bearish export expectations. Even if an low export tax window opened, producers were also not eager to deliver their cargoes to ports. They firmed their selling ideas at $435-440/tonne for 64% DAP.
Export prices were at around $450/tonne CFR (cost & freight) India for DAP in late May and early June, supported by international ammonium phosphate prices. In addition, demand for MAP and DAP was strong from the US, which saw export prices for ammonium phosphate firming and orders increasing gradually. Plant operating rates rose to 65-70%.
Updated to Q2 2014
ICIS reports on ammonia on a global basis, with reports in Europe, Asia and the US. At the same time, we are able to draw on global resources in London, Houston (Texas), Singapore and Shanghai.
In Europe, we report on the key benchmark using the free on board (FOB) Yuzhny spot price and also include cost & freight (CFR) prices for north Africa and northwest Europe (NWE).
In the Asia section, we have CFR prices for India, Taiwan and Korea. Throughout the week, we speak to a wide range of people – including producers, consumers and traders – in order to obtain a broad range of accurate information for our subscribers. All of our reporting is backed up by a strong methodology.
ICIS collects pricing data on a wide range of chemical, energy and fertilizer products, including Ammonia. Our extensive experience in price reporting means we can offer you access to historical data dating back more than 20 years for certain commodities.
Our time series of pricing data enables you to build and model trends, to get a view of where markets might be heading. The data service includes charting functionality, allowing you to chart and download multiple data series for manipulation in your own internal models. You can also export data to Excel via the ICIS dashboard service.
ICIS launches Global Ammonia Markets General Methodology Consultation more >>
ICIS price assessments are based on information gathered from a wide cross-section of the market, comprising consumers, producers, traders and distributors from more than 250 reporters world-wide. Confirmed deals, verified by both buyer and seller, provide the foundation of our price assessments.
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