Gas transit to Turkey unaffected by Georgia’s conflict with Russia
The conflict between the Russian Federation and Georgia over South Ossetia and Abkhazia has had no significant impact on the energy flows through the South Caucasus gas pipeline which transits Azeri gas to Turkey via Georgia, according to the pipeline’s operator BP. Flows were stopped for a period of two days because of fighting, but resumed and have continued unaffected – the pipeline was not damaged by fighting. During the brief cut-off, Turkey increased its intake of gas imports from Iran to make up for the lost volumes from Azerbaijan.
Although it is difficult to assess the broad implications of this ongoing conflict at present, in all likelihood the region will face further destabilisation (see EGM comment on page 20). A protracted conflict would certainly undermine security of supply through the only non-Russian-controlled energy corridor in the region. There are three pipeline projects – Nabucco, TAP and IGI Poseidon – which could be affected by an increase in Russian influence in Georgia, or a protracted conflict in the region. All three would partially or wholly rely on Caspian volumes flowing through Georgia as a means to diversify away from Russia. It is this same corridor which would allow potential future non-Russian volumes to reach Europe through new pipe links with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan via the Caspian Sea.
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