Germany: German curve follows TTF down; NCG Day-ahead surges
Both the NCG and GASPOOL curve, from the front month out, turned bearish in Germany on Wednesday, as traders spoke of a "correction" and "profit-taking" following the high prices of recent days.
For NCG, this meant losses in excess of €0.60/MWh in most cases, as the contract remained linked closely to TTF, in spite of a reasonable amount of trading on some curve contracts. There were outright trades on all three front months, on the front two quarters and Winter '10 and the spreads on these contracts remained fairly consistent at around €0.33 on most contracts.
May '10, now nearing expiry, cannot now be considered in this camp however, and its premium over TTF now stands at €0.35/MWh. Given how close to expiry May '10 now is, this spread is quite a long way short of that between NCG and TTF Day-ahead though; NCG Day-ahead closed at €15.10/MWh, €0.725/MWh above TTF and €0.80/MWh higher than the previous session's close.
Austrian Day-ahead moved to further heights in another bullish session on Wednesday. The contract gained €0.95/MWh intra-day to last trade at €17.75/MWh. The price was markedly higher than the average price of the contract during the past winter season, which stood at €13.18/MWh, according to ICIS Heren data. One participant attributed the premium to companies trying to maintain a wide spread with the NCG. "Sellers have interest in the huge spread," the dealer said, though he admitted buyers were ready to pay that price. The Austrian premium to the NCG reached €3.00/MWh. No curve products changed hands, but sources said there was great demand in the front month and the following summer months. RS/KZ
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