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CEE/SEE: Electricity far curves were bearish after public holiday

02 May 2012 21:02:38 | edem

Activity picked up in the CEE markets on Wednesday after the public holiday on Tuesday. As expected earlier in the week, a moderate bearish sentiment returned to the regional far curves, while most spot levels corrected upwards with demand expected to go back to normal.

In Poland, liquidity was limited owing to another public holiday in the country on Thursday. "Today is just a bridge day before tomorrow's Constitution Day, so market was pretty quiet," one Polish trader said.

Another market participant added that he didn't expect any big trading activity before the start of next week.

The Calendar Year 2013 dealt twice on Wednesday, closing Zl0.10/MWh lower than the previous session. The move was in line with bearishness in the coal market.

The Czech Cal '13 lost €0.15/MWh session on session, tightening the spread to the German equivalent to €1.55/MWh.

Sources agreed that the main bearish drivers for the product were lower coal and fuels complex prices.

Hungarian and Serbian curve prices took their cue from weakening German prices, which were depressed in turn by softer fuels.

Hungarian participants said the spreads to the German contracts were coming in line with their expectations.

"There isn't anything in particular to drive any movements on the far curve. We are very close to German levels and the situation is stable for now," a source active on the Hungarian market said.

The Czech June '12 Baseload ticked €0.05/MWh up on Wednesday while the Peaks were assessed €0.25/MWh higher day on day.

One Czech trader said that, in his opinion, the contract was currently overpriced, especially on the Peaks, because he expected a lot of solar generation to kick in in June.

The Polish front-month Baseload closed at Zl191.40/MWh, down by Zl0.10/MWh session on session. According to one Polish trader the contract had room for further downside due to the fact that June '11 closed much lower.

"I expect that June Baseload might drop to Zl185/MWh," he said, adding that demand should not be increased during the European Football Championship, as the events in the country will last only for several days. Therefore there was no bullish driver on the contract.

Balkan participants were more focused on the prompt, where fundamental elements are more likely to sway the balance over the coming weeks.

A Romanian trader said hydro levels were now improving in the country after a lengthy drought.

"Reservoirs are now at 40% capacity and Danube levels have improved a great deal," he said. "I expect prices to remain within the seasonal range if temperatures drop over the coming weeks. There is still a lot of water. We had a lot of snow a few weeks ago and this is just now coming into the system," he added.

Similarly, Serbian participants reported stable hydro levels in the Balkans.

Consumption was expected to return to normal working day levels from Thursday after Serbia celebrated a public holiday on Wednesday. IP/AS

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