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• 2009 Budgets

  It is nearly time for the blog's annual forecast of chemical industry prospects. Of course, past performance is not necessarily a guide to future outcomes. But it is one of the better guides that we have. So before publishing the forecast next weekend... Posted Oct 12 2008, 06:19 AM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: Economic growth, Oil markets, Currencies, credit crunch, M & A, Leverage, budgets

• The last few days

  There are clearly a lot of critical developments at the moment. So I thought it might be helpful to index recent postings: Financial crisis US to follow UK in buying bank shares 'Incompetence and denial' Iceland calls in IMF Europe, N America... Posted Oct 10 2008, 06:10 AM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: Economic growth, Oil markets, Currencies, Financial Events, housing, credit crunch, Futures trading, M & A, Leverage

• US to follow UK in buying bank shares

  Winston Churchill, a long-standing friend of the USA, once irritably but acutely observed that 'one can rely on America to get to the right conclusion, when all other options have been exhausted'. So, hopefully, it will prove with the financial... Posted Oct 09 2008, 10:23 PM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: Economic growth, Currencies, Financial Events, credit crunch, Futures trading, M & A, Leverage

• Iceland calls in IMF

  As the blog predicted , Iceland has been forced to call on the IMF for help. Finally, the country's leaders have recognised that their $20bn economy couldn't support the level of debt built up during the 'go-go' years. The pity is that... Posted Oct 09 2008, 09:07 AM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: Economic growth, Currencies, Financial Events, credit crunch, M & A, Leverage, IMF, Iceland

• The zeitgeist continues to change

  The German word 'Zeitgeist' describes 'the ethos or mood' of a select group of people. Back in Januar y, the blog noticed that the financial zeitgeist was clearly changing. Today brings another example, from the Wall Street Journal , normally... Posted Oct 08 2008, 07:27 AM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: Economic growth, Currencies, Financial Events, credit crunch, M & A, Leverage, global downturn

• UK part-nationalises its major banks

  The UK is to invest £50bn ($85bn) to rescue its major banks, via part-nationalisation. In addition, it will provide unlimited amounts of cash via loans. The aim is to try and unfreeze the UK's banking system, which has been on the verge of collapse... Posted Oct 07 2008, 11:19 PM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: Economic growth, Currencies, Financial Events, M & A, Leverage, UK Government, HBOS, LloydsTSB, Barclays Bank, Royal Bank of Scotland

• The Swedish model

  The blog has given up counting the number of US banks that have failed in recent weeks, away from the headlnes. Ken Lewis, CEO of Bank of America, predicted last month that half of all US banks would fail, and he is well placed to know. Bank rescues are... Posted Oct 06 2008, 10:18 AM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: UK, Economic growth, Currencies, Financial Events, M & A, Leverage, Germany, Sweden, France, Bank of America, Fortis, Hypo Real Estate, Alistair Darling

• 5 key questions about the US bailout

  The proposal now before Congress to authorise the spending of $700bn to bail out Wall Street contains just 849 words. It avoids the need to go into further detail via its suggestion that the Treasury Secretary should simply have unlimited authority to... Posted Sep 21 2008, 03:53 PM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: Economic growth, Currencies, Financial Events, credit crunch, Futures trading, M & A, Leverage, subprime crisis, global downturn, US Congress, US Treasury, credit derivatives

• The global stock market decline

  Alan Greenspan's comments ( below ), led the blog to investigate how the world's major stock markets had moved since their recent peaks. All, as shown in the chart, are now in bear markets. Stock markets often forecast economic developments 6... Posted Sep 18 2008, 02:02 PM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: USA, China, UK, India, Brazil, Economic growth, Oil markets, Currencies, Japan, Financial Events, M & A, Leverage, global downturn, Russia, Alan Greenspan

• UK's largest mortgage lender rescued

  Another day, another rescue. This time on the other side of the Atlantic. HBOS, the UK's largest mortgage lender, with a 20% market share, announced this morning that it was being rescued via a merger with the Lloyds TSB bank. The deal was brokered... Posted Sep 18 2008, 12:26 PM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: Economic growth, Currencies, Financial Events, M & A, Leverage, UK housing downturn, UK Government, global downturn, HBOS

• AIG rescued

  'A disorderly failure of AIG could add to already significant levels of financial market fragility and lead to substantially higher borrowing costs, reduced household wealth, and materially weaker economic performance,' according to the US Federal... Posted Sep 17 2008, 09:56 AM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: Economic growth, Currencies, Financial Events, M & A, Leverage, US Federal Reserve, global downturn, AIG

• The 'Minsky moment' unfolds

  Pimco, the world's largest bond fund, have repeated their belief that we are facing a 'Minsky moment', named after Hyman Minsky (pictured). His insight was that a long period of stability, such as that experienced over the past decade, eventually... Posted Sep 16 2008, 08:47 AM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: Economic growth, Currencies, Financial Events, Leverage, global downturn, PIMCO, Minsky moment

• August highlights

  Many readers have been out of the office during August on a well-deserved break. I am therefore highlighting below the main postings over the past month, in the hope this will help them to catch up quickly on key developments - please click on the highlighted... Posted Sep 01 2008, 01:06 PM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: China, BASF, Economic growth, Currencies, housing, credit crunch, oil prices, Petrochemicals, Warren Buffett, global downturn, auto sales, polymers

• A sombre outlook

  Housing is a vital market for chemical companies. It boomed in the US and other Western countries as credit standards were relaxed between 2003-7. Now it is at the centre of the credit crunch. Martin Feldstein, Harvard economics professor, and the man... Posted Aug 27 2008, 09:59 AM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: Economic growth, Currencies, Financial Events, credit crunch, M & A, Leverage, global downturn, Martin Feldstein

• The 'slow motion train wreck' continues

  A year ago, the noted investment analyst, Jeremy Grantham, described the credit crisis as a 'slow motion train wreck'. The Financial Times has now updated the metaphor to describe what has happened since. It notes that train crashes happen more... Posted Aug 19 2008, 02:01 PM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: Economic growth, Currencies, Financial Events, credit crunch, Leverage, global downturn, Jeremy Grantham