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• A sombre outlook

  Housing is a vital market for chemical companies. It boomed in the US and other Western countries as credit standards were relaxed between 2003-7. Now it is at the centre of the credit crunch. Martin Feldstein, Harvard economics professor, and the man... Posted Aug 27 2008, 09:59 AM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: Economic growth, Currencies, Financial Events, credit crunch, M & A, Leverage, global downturn, Martin Feldstein

• US house prices keep on falling

  US house prices, according to today's S&P/Case-Shiller Index, are still falling quite sharply. As shown in the chart, they are now down 17% versus last year. The key influence, according to S&P, is that 'the markets that were the high... Posted Aug 26 2008, 05:13 PM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: Economic growth, Case-Shiller index, Financial Events, Leverage, subprime crisis, US house prices

• The nudist beach on Wall Street

  When you're the richest man in the world, you can generally say what you think. Thus Warren Buffett reflected reality back in March , when he commented that 'by any commonsense definition, the US is in recession'. Yesterday, he probably ruffled... Posted Aug 23 2008, 11:49 AM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: Economic growth, Financial Events, M & A, Leverage, Warren Buffett, subprime crisis

• The 'slow motion train wreck' continues

  A year ago, the noted investment analyst, Jeremy Grantham, described the credit crisis as a 'slow motion train wreck'. The Financial Times has now updated the metaphor to describe what has happened since. It notes that train crashes happen more... Posted Aug 19 2008, 02:01 PM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: Economic growth, Currencies, Financial Events, credit crunch, Leverage, global downturn, Jeremy Grantham

• BASF reduce 2008 global GDP forecast

  BASF have now reduced their 2008 GDP forecast from 2.8% to 2.4%. This may sound a small amount, but it means it is now in line with the Global Downturn Scenario set out in our Feedstocks for Profit Study. Previously, it had been just below our Base Case... Posted Aug 19 2008, 01:19 PM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: BASF, Economic growth, Currencies, Financial Events, subprime crisis, global downturn, Feedstocks for Profit

• US banks tighten corporate/consumer lending

  Tighter lending standards, and higher spreads for borrowers, are continuing to create headwinds for the US economy. As far back as January , senior loan officers at major US banks were reporting that they were tightening mortgage lending standards. Yesterday... Posted Aug 12 2008, 04:27 PM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: Economic growth, Financial Events, credit crunch, M & A, Leverage, US Federal Reserve

• Corporate defaults could reach 10%

  Chemical company CFOs need to step up their monitoring of customers' creditworthiness. That's the clear message today from ratings agency Moody's , who report that corporate defaults are rising sharply. According to Moody's Director, Kenneth... Posted Aug 07 2008, 02:18 PM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: Economic growth, Moody's, Financial Events, Leverage

• '2009 - another difficult year' says BMW

  BMW, the world's largest luxury car manufacturer, warned today that it is no longer immune from the global downturn: 'Business conditions for the automobile industry deteriorated sharply again in the second quarter due to further ongoing steep... Posted Aug 01 2008, 10:32 AM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: Economic growth, Oil markets, Financial Events, global downturn, BMW

• Revisions, revisions

  Statisticians are very fond of re-writing economic history. And a notable example of this has occurred today. It is now reported that the US economy actually declined by 0.2% at the end of last year. Whereas, 6 months ago, it was reported as having grown... Posted Jul 31 2008, 03:43 PM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: Economic growth, Financial Events, US recession, Warren Buffett, Prof Martin Feldstein

• US housing 'terrible'

  When a leading banker says things look ' terrible' , one know they must be really bad. Jamie Dimon is CEO of JP Morgan Chase, the only major US bank not to take write-downs on its housing loans to date. He described the US housing market as follows... Posted Jul 31 2008, 10:34 AM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: Economic growth, Oil markets, Case-Shiller index, Financial Events, Leverage, JP Morgan

• Just saying 'No'

  I noted back in February that US banks were tightening lending standards into the housing sector. Now they are doing the same with business loans. The New York Times reports today that businesses around the country are finding it more difficult to borrow... Posted Jul 28 2008, 02:03 PM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: Economic growth, Financial Events, credit crunch, M & A, Leverage, Goldman Sachs, global downturn, US subprime crisis

• The end of 'stretch targets'

  There is little doubt that chemical growth is weakening. The above chart, taken from Kevin Swift's excellent weekly report for the American Chemistry Council, indicates that a serious downturn is underway. Since January, world production growth (the... Posted Jul 27 2008, 03:54 PM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: China, Europe, Economic growth, Oil markets, Financial Events, M & A, Middle East, Asia, ACC, global downturn, Kevin Swift, NAFTA

• European auto sales fall 8%

  Europe is the world's largest auto manufacturer, accounting for 32% of the global market. So news that European auto sales fell 8.3% last month, compared to 2007, is worrying. Italy's sales fell 20%, and were today described as ' disastrous'... Posted Jul 23 2008, 05:50 PM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: Economic growth, Oil markets, Financial Events, ACEA, Fiat

• Merrill cuts back on private jets

  I suppose when an industry has lost $400bn in a year, some sacrifices have to be made. In May, I documented how Deutsche Bank was no longer approving expense claims for ' adult entertainment' . Well, things have got worse since then, as the losses... Posted Jul 23 2008, 08:44 AM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: Economic growth, Financial Events, M & A, Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank

• A 'profound' downturn

  The current downturn is different from anything that has occurred in the last 15 years. Policy makers are clearly worried. The UK's Finance Minister, Alistair Darling, told Bloomberg today that 'the effect of what has happened is going to be far... Posted Jul 22 2008, 02:15 PM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: Economic growth, Financial Events, M & A, Leverage, global downturn