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• The deleveraging tsunami continues

  Sir Fred Goodwin, CEO of RBS, was one of the poster boys of the new banking model. Along with his peer group, he preached the virtues of the 'efficient balance sheet'. Equity was for wimps. The blog warned over a year ago that the 'seeming... Posted Oct 13 2008, 12:30 PM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: Economic growth, Financial Events, credit crunch, Futures trading, M & A, Leverage, RBS, HBOS, LloydsTSB, Barclays Bank

• Ineos to sell some US assets?

  The UK's Sunday Telegraph newspaper reports that 'Ineos, the chemicals group which is one of Britain's biggest private companies, is considering selling assets in an effort to reduce its debt burden'. It adds that 'the company, which... Posted Oct 13 2008, 09:22 AM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: M & A, Leverage, Ineos

• 2009 Budgets

  It is nearly time for the blog's annual forecast of chemical industry prospects. Of course, past performance is not necessarily a guide to future outcomes. But it is one of the better guides that we have. So before publishing the forecast next weekend... Posted Oct 12 2008, 06:19 AM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: Economic growth, Oil markets, Currencies, credit crunch, M & A, Leverage, budgets

• The last few days

  There are clearly a lot of critical developments at the moment. So I thought it might be helpful to index recent postings: Financial crisis US to follow UK in buying bank shares 'Incompetence and denial' Iceland calls in IMF Europe, N America... Posted Oct 10 2008, 06:10 AM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: Economic growth, Oil markets, Currencies, Financial Events, housing, credit crunch, Futures trading, M & A, Leverage

• US to follow UK in buying bank shares

  Winston Churchill, a long-standing friend of the USA, once irritably but acutely observed that 'one can rely on America to get to the right conclusion, when all other options have been exhausted'. So, hopefully, it will prove with the financial... Posted Oct 09 2008, 10:23 PM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: Economic growth, Currencies, Financial Events, credit crunch, Futures trading, M & A, Leverage

• Auto markets face 'outright collapse' in 2009

  Collapsing housing markets are creating major problems for chemical companies worldwide. Now JD Power , the leading auto industry research firm, is warning that 'the global auto market in 2009 may experience an outright collapse.' They add that... Posted Oct 09 2008, 08:39 PM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: Economic growth, Financial Events, Futures trading, M & A, Leverage, auto sales

• Iceland calls in IMF

  As the blog predicted , Iceland has been forced to call on the IMF for help. Finally, the country's leaders have recognised that their $20bn economy couldn't support the level of debt built up during the 'go-go' years. The pity is that... Posted Oct 09 2008, 09:07 AM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: Economic growth, Currencies, Financial Events, credit crunch, M & A, Leverage, IMF, Iceland

• A satirical look at the banking crisis

  Readers may remember the satirical John Bird/John Fortune video on the causes of the housing crisis. Now the Financial Times Diary has provided a satirical view of the causes of the banking crisis: A new bank model 1) Take money from members of the public... Posted Oct 09 2008, 08:24 AM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: Financial Events, credit crunch, M & A, Leverage

• The zeitgeist continues to change

  The German word 'Zeitgeist' describes 'the ethos or mood' of a select group of people. Back in Januar y, the blog noticed that the financial zeitgeist was clearly changing. Today brings another example, from the Wall Street Journal , normally... Posted Oct 08 2008, 07:27 AM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: Economic growth, Currencies, Financial Events, credit crunch, M & A, Leverage, global downturn

• UK part-nationalises its major banks

  The UK is to invest £50bn ($85bn) to rescue its major banks, via part-nationalisation. In addition, it will provide unlimited amounts of cash via loans. The aim is to try and unfreeze the UK's banking system, which has been on the verge of collapse... Posted Oct 07 2008, 11:19 PM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: Economic growth, Currencies, Financial Events, M & A, Leverage, UK Government, HBOS, LloydsTSB, Barclays Bank, Royal Bank of Scotland

• 'The time for piecemeal solutions is over'

  The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has now increased its estimate of total sub-prime losses to $1.4 trillion, versus $945bn in April . And Dominique Strauss-Kahn , the IMF MD, has called for the major economies to respond to the credit crisis with... Posted Oct 07 2008, 10:40 PM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: Economic growth, Financial Events, credit crunch, Futures trading, M & A, Leverage, IMF, global downturn

• 'Demand and prices in free fall'

  The moment the blog has long feared, and warned about , may be about to arrive. It appears that we may be about to revisit 1980, when for some weeks it seemed that demand for many petchem products had simply stopped. As Nigel Davis notes in an excellent... Posted Oct 07 2008, 08:34 AM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: Economic growth, Oil markets, Financial Events, housing, M & A, Leverage, crude oil prices, global downturn, auto sales, polymers, cracker economics

• The Swedish model

  The blog has given up counting the number of US banks that have failed in recent weeks, away from the headlnes. Ken Lewis, CEO of Bank of America, predicted last month that half of all US banks would fail, and he is well placed to know. Bank rescues are... Posted Oct 06 2008, 10:18 AM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: UK, Economic growth, Currencies, Financial Events, M & A, Leverage, Germany, Sweden, France, Bank of America, Fortis, Hypo Real Estate, Alistair Darling

• Blue skies disappear

  A year ago, the blog was in a minority of one, with its forecast for 2008. Its heading was ' Budgeting for a Downturn' . By contrast, the consensus post-EPCA was for $70bbl oil, debt market problems to be contained, and for chemical margins to... Posted Oct 05 2008, 01:08 PM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: Economic growth, Oil markets, Financial Events, credit crunch, M & A, Leverage, EPCA, global downturn

• Bailout passes, Wall Street falls

  'Buy on the rumour, sell on the news' is the classic definition of a weak market. So the US stock market's reaction to the passing of the US bailout is a worrying indication that further problems may lie ahead. On 19 September, the Dow rocketed... Posted Oct 04 2008, 07:28 PM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: Economic growth, Financial Events, credit crunch, M & A, Leverage, global downturn, US Congress, US Treasury, credit derivatives