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• 'A very, very serious global economic slowdown'

  A trend seems to be developing amongst the world's policy makers. Last month saw China and the UK's finance ministries warning of bad times to come. Yesterday, France's finance minister joined the chorus, saying that she had 'underestimated... Posted Sep 02 2008, 09:14 AM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: China, UK, Economic growth, Oil markets, Financial Events, Leverage, global downturn, France

• August highlights

  Many readers have been out of the office during August on a well-deserved break. I am therefore highlighting below the main postings over the past month, in the hope this will help them to catch up quickly on key developments - please click on the highlighted... Posted Sep 01 2008, 01:06 PM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: China, BASF, Economic growth, Currencies, housing, credit crunch, oil prices, Petrochemicals, Warren Buffett, global downturn, auto sales, polymers

• 'Global economy at 60-year low' - UK Finance Minister

  Another policy maker has decided realism is the best policy when talking about the current credit crunch. China's Liu He started the trend earlier this month, by talking about the need for 'economic restructuring'. Now the UK's Finance... Posted Aug 30 2008, 10:52 AM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: credit crunch, global downturn

• A sombre outlook

  Housing is a vital market for chemical companies. It boomed in the US and other Western countries as credit standards were relaxed between 2003-7. Now it is at the centre of the credit crunch. Martin Feldstein, Harvard economics professor, and the man... Posted Aug 27 2008, 09:59 AM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: Economic growth, Currencies, Financial Events, credit crunch, M & A, Leverage, global downturn, Martin Feldstein

• China's growth slows

  China's growth rate is slowing quite sharply. Exports to the US grew just 9% in H1 , half the 2007 rate. In addition, ICIS news has reported that China's important textile industry has seen a 25% decline in orders, whilst US polyethylene exports... Posted Aug 24 2008, 09:19 AM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: China, Economic growth, polyethylene, subprime crisis, global downturn

• The 'slow motion train wreck' continues

  A year ago, the noted investment analyst, Jeremy Grantham, described the credit crisis as a 'slow motion train wreck'. The Financial Times has now updated the metaphor to describe what has happened since. It notes that train crashes happen more... Posted Aug 19 2008, 02:01 PM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: Economic growth, Currencies, Financial Events, credit crunch, Leverage, global downturn, Jeremy Grantham

• BASF reduce 2008 global GDP forecast

  BASF have now reduced their 2008 GDP forecast from 2.8% to 2.4%. This may sound a small amount, but it means it is now in line with the Global Downturn Scenario set out in our Feedstocks for Profit Study. Previously, it had been just below our Base Case... Posted Aug 19 2008, 01:19 PM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: BASF, Economic growth, Currencies, Financial Events, subprime crisis, global downturn, Feedstocks for Profit

• 1/3rd of US auto suppliers risk bankruptcy

  US/European auto sales fell again last month. GM reported total US sales down 27% versus 2007, due to a 'challenging US economic environment' Toyota were down 19%, with Lexus sales badly hit, down 25% Ford were down 13%, and said they 'expected... Posted Aug 12 2008, 05:02 PM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: Economic growth, credit crunch, global downturn, Toyota, Chrysler, GM, Ford

• 'Grey hair and good advice matter'

  The credit crunch began a year ago. At that time, the blog was very much in a minority when worrying that it might turn into something big enough to impact 'the real economy' . A year later, it is fascinating to review the crunch's impact... Posted Aug 10 2008, 09:53 PM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: Wal-Mart, credit crunch, US Federal Reserve, IMF, global downturn, Citigroup, Tesco, RBS, Bernanke

• German and Spanish economies turn down

  I noted last month that German industrial production fell 2.4% in May, and that Chancellor Angela Merkel was expecting 'a significant fall' in economic growth for 2009. This fall now seems to be already underway. Industrial output fell by a further... Posted Aug 07 2008, 12:27 PM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: Economic growth, Futures trading, global downturn, Germany, Spain

• Paul Ray's excellent ICIS PE margin report provides plenty of food for thought this week. The chart above shows that European LDPE prices (the red line) have moved up quite sharply since June. But almost all of this improvement has been captured by... Posted Aug 02 2008, 03:20 PM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: Economic growth, Oil markets, polyethylene, global downturn

• '2009 - another difficult year' says BMW

  BMW, the world's largest luxury car manufacturer, warned today that it is no longer immune from the global downturn: 'Business conditions for the automobile industry deteriorated sharply again in the second quarter due to further ongoing steep... Posted Aug 01 2008, 10:32 AM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: Economic growth, Oil markets, Financial Events, global downturn, BMW

• Just saying 'No'

  I noted back in February that US banks were tightening lending standards into the housing sector. Now they are doing the same with business loans. The New York Times reports today that businesses around the country are finding it more difficult to borrow... Posted Jul 28 2008, 02:03 PM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: Economic growth, Financial Events, credit crunch, M & A, Leverage, Goldman Sachs, global downturn, US subprime crisis

• The end of 'stretch targets'

  There is little doubt that chemical growth is weakening. The above chart, taken from Kevin Swift's excellent weekly report for the American Chemistry Council, indicates that a serious downturn is underway. Since January, world production growth (the... Posted Jul 27 2008, 03:54 PM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: China, Europe, Economic growth, Oil markets, Financial Events, M & A, Middle East, Asia, ACC, global downturn, Kevin Swift, NAFTA

• Germany's growth slows

  Germany is the powerhouse economy of Europe. Its also a late-cycle economy, relying more on engineering and equipment sales than consumer spending. So until recently, its growth has seemingly not been affected by the global slowdown. But Germany's... Posted Jul 24 2008, 11:38 AM by Chemicals & The Economy Filed under: Economic growth, global downturn, Germany, Angela Merkel