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World Bank sees deeper recession

The chemical industry is always a leading indicator of the global economy. One of the blog's oldest friends used to be a central banker, and he made no secret of the fact that our discussions about demand levels were often an important factor in his...

Published 23 Jun 2009 10:57 by Chemicals & The Economy

Filed under: China, India, Economic growth, Oil markets, Financial Events, M & A, Leverage, recession, IMF, World Bank
After destocking, chemical volumes remain down 15-20%

The great wave of destocking is finally coming to an end. And it is clear that underlying global demand is well below previous "normal" levels. The evidence for this can be seen in the above chart, based on American Chemistry Council data, which...

Published 21 Jun 2009 20:06 by Chemicals & The Economy

Filed under: BASF, Economic growth, Financial Events, M & A, Leverage, recession, chemical demand
Ineos appoint Morgan Stanley for Grangemouth

The blog's close eye on Scotland's media has again been rewarded this morning, as 'The Scotsman' reveals that Ineos have appointed Morgan Stanley, the investment bank, to advise on the sale of Grangemouth. It suggests that a company such...

Published 21 Jun 2009 10:19 by Chemicals & The Economy

Filed under: Economic growth, Oil markets, Financial Events, M & A, Leverage, Refining, Grangemouth, Morgan Stanley, orINEOS
Ineos talks of PetroChina deal for Grangemouth

The 'Falkirk Herald', based close to Ineos's Grangemouth facility in Scotland, is not normally the place that the blog would look for news of the potential sale of a major part of the world's 4th largest chemical company. However, that...

Published 18 Jun 2009 21:51 by Chemicals & The Economy

Filed under: Oil markets, Currencies, Financial Events, M & A, Leverage, Dow Chemical, Refining, Ineos, PetroChina, Grangemouth
Industrial output decline follows Depression trend

Sweden is an influential adviser on credit crunch issues. This is because of the lessons it learned during its own major banking collapse in the early 1990's, which has close parallels with today's global crisis. Its central bank argues that the...

Published 16 Jun 2009 13:34 by Chemicals & The Economy

Filed under: Economic growth, Financial Events, Leverage, recession, industrial production, Riksbank
Soccer star Ronaldo sold for £80m (€94m, $130m)

The European soccer transfer market is a good example of a market where sentiment often outweighs fundamentals. Research by London's Cass Business School shows that transfer fees have only a 16% correlation with success on the pitch. They found that...

Published 13 Jun 2009 16:33 by Chemicals & The Economy

Filed under: Financial Events, Leverage, Kaka, Real Madrid, Ronaldo
V-shaped sellers meet L-shaped buyers

Picture: www.businessoffashion.com A senior figure in the investment community told the blog recently that companies' views on the outlook for the economy seemed to vary according to their own financial position, "the stronger the balance sheet...

Published 7 Jun 2009 15:48 by Chemicals & The Economy

Filed under: Economic growth, Currencies, Financial Events, M & A, Leverage, bankruptcy, M&A, private equity, Pilko
Germany attacks central bank policy

During the growth years, it became fashionable for politicians to claim that central banks were "independent". But as the current crisis has grown, this has been increasingly exposed as a myth. As the blog noted back in September 2007 , Alan...

Published 5 Jun 2009 6:47 by Chemicals & The Economy

Filed under: Economic growth, central banks, Financial Events, Leverage, US Federal Reserve, Angela Merkel, Alan Greenspan
Difficult decisions loom on future US auto demand

By the end of May last year, 6.2m autos had been sold in the US market, each containing $2700 of chemicals (according to the ACC). The total sales value to the chemical industry was $16.8bn. So far this year, just 3.9m autos have been sold, with a value...

Published 3 Jun 2009 13:54 by Chemicals & The Economy

Filed under: Economic growth, Oil markets, Financial Events, M & A, Leverage, bankruptcy, auto sales, polymers, chemical demand
Markets in Wonderland

"Sometimes, I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast" said the Queen in Lewis Carroll's famous book, 'Alice in Wonderland' Today would have been a good day for her to practise this ability, as she read...

Published 2 Jun 2009 14:41 by Chemicals & The Economy

Filed under: Economic growth, Oil markets, Financial Events, Leverage, recession, crude oil prices, IEA, S Korea, Lyondell, Alice in Wonderland, Alastair Darling
May's top posts

The 3 most popular posts in May were: Dow, Ineos focus on debt issues Rotterdam oil storage running out of space Green shoots likely to be yellow weeds The blog will be celebrating its 2nd birthday at the end of the month. I would welcome your comments...

Published 2 Jun 2009 10:38 by Chemicals & The Economy

Filed under: Economic growth, Oil markets, Financial Events, Futures trading, M & A, Leverage
Adultery signals for traders

My fellow-blogger, Barbara, cleverly spotted this week's 'Global Traders Summit' in Singapore. Had this blog been there, it would have mentioned the latest, apparently fool-proof, way to determine stock market turning points, based on bankers'...

Published 29 May 2009 19:51 by Chemicals & The Economy

Filed under: Economic growth, Financial Events, credit crunch, Futures trading, M & A, Leverage, bankers, adultery
Saudi confirms $75/bbl oil price target

Back in December , the blog analysed statements by King Abdullah, and concluded that Saudi Arabia had a 'target range' for oil prices of $75 - 100/bbl. Yesterday , this analysis was confirmed by Saudi Oil Minister, Ali Naimi, who said the world...

Published 28 May 2009 9:10 by Chemicals & The Economy

Filed under: Economic growth, Oil markets, Financial Events, Leverage, recession, crude oil prices, Saudi Oil Minister
China and US house prices

The Financial Times highlights the overwhelming importance of falling US house prices to the outlook for the global economy. It notes that prices are now falling by 2.2%/month, causing a $380bn wealth loss in March alone. It adds that if prices continue...

Published 27 May 2009 21:39 by Chemicals & The Economy

Filed under: China, Economic growth, Financial Events, housing, Leverage
US house prices, building permits, see record declines

US house prices are still seeing "record declines" according to today's Case-Shiller home price index . The national price was down 19.1% from March 2008, and 32% from the Q2 2006 peak. As before, the over-built Sunbelt led the way, with...

Published 26 May 2009 17:27 by Chemicals & The Economy

Filed under: Economic growth, Case-Shiller index, Financial Events, housing, Leverage

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