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World Bank sees deeper recession

The chemical industry is always a leading indicator of the global economy. One of the blog's oldest friends used to be a central banker, and he made no secret of the fact that our discussions about demand levels were often an important factor in his...

Published 23 Jun 2009 10:57 by Chemicals & The Economy

Filed under: China, India, Economic growth, Oil markets, Financial Events, M & A, Leverage, recession, IMF, World Bank
After destocking, chemical volumes remain down 15-20%

The great wave of destocking is finally coming to an end. And it is clear that underlying global demand is well below previous "normal" levels. The evidence for this can be seen in the above chart, based on American Chemistry Council data, which...

Published 21 Jun 2009 20:06 by Chemicals & The Economy

Filed under: BASF, Economic growth, Financial Events, M & A, Leverage, recession, chemical demand
Ineos appoint Morgan Stanley for Grangemouth

The blog's close eye on Scotland's media has again been rewarded this morning, as 'The Scotsman' reveals that Ineos have appointed Morgan Stanley, the investment bank, to advise on the sale of Grangemouth. It suggests that a company such...

Published 21 Jun 2009 10:19 by Chemicals & The Economy

Filed under: Economic growth, Oil markets, Financial Events, M & A, Leverage, Refining, Grangemouth, Morgan Stanley, orINEOS
Ineos talks of PetroChina deal for Grangemouth

The 'Falkirk Herald', based close to Ineos's Grangemouth facility in Scotland, is not normally the place that the blog would look for news of the potential sale of a major part of the world's 4th largest chemical company. However, that...

Published 18 Jun 2009 21:51 by Chemicals & The Economy

Filed under: Oil markets, Currencies, Financial Events, M & A, Leverage, Dow Chemical, Refining, Ineos, PetroChina, Grangemouth
V-shaped sellers meet L-shaped buyers

Picture: www.businessoffashion.com A senior figure in the investment community told the blog recently that companies' views on the outlook for the economy seemed to vary according to their own financial position, "the stronger the balance sheet...

Published 7 Jun 2009 15:48 by Chemicals & The Economy

Filed under: Economic growth, Currencies, Financial Events, M & A, Leverage, bankruptcy, M&A, private equity, Pilko
Difficult decisions loom on future US auto demand

By the end of May last year, 6.2m autos had been sold in the US market, each containing $2700 of chemicals (according to the ACC). The total sales value to the chemical industry was $16.8bn. So far this year, just 3.9m autos have been sold, with a value...

Published 3 Jun 2009 13:54 by Chemicals & The Economy

Filed under: Economic growth, Oil markets, Financial Events, M & A, Leverage, bankruptcy, auto sales, polymers, chemical demand
May's top posts

The 3 most popular posts in May were: Dow, Ineos focus on debt issues Rotterdam oil storage running out of space Green shoots likely to be yellow weeds The blog will be celebrating its 2nd birthday at the end of the month. I would welcome your comments...

Published 2 Jun 2009 10:38 by Chemicals & The Economy

Filed under: Economic growth, Oil markets, Financial Events, Futures trading, M & A, Leverage
Adultery signals for traders

My fellow-blogger, Barbara, cleverly spotted this week's 'Global Traders Summit' in Singapore. Had this blog been there, it would have mentioned the latest, apparently fool-proof, way to determine stock market turning points, based on bankers'...

Published 29 May 2009 19:51 by Chemicals & The Economy

Filed under: Economic growth, Financial Events, credit crunch, Futures trading, M & A, Leverage, bankers, adultery
Dow, Ineos, focus on debt issues

Dow and Ineos are two of the world's largest chemical companies. Both found themselves in tight financial situations at the start of the year. Dow's debt rating was cut to just above junk, whilst Ineos had to ask for covenant waivers. Since then...

Published 26 May 2009 10:43 by Chemicals & The Economy

Filed under: Economic growth, Financial Events, M & A, Leverage, Dow Chemical, Ineos
Thought for the day

It is now generally accepted that reckless lending has helped cause the greatest collapse in the global economy since the Depression years of the 1930's. Yet many bankers still maintain it is vital they continue to pursue "innovation" of...

Published 22 May 2009 11:00 by Chemicals & The Economy

Filed under: Economic growth, Financial Events, M & A, Leverage, innovation, banking
US Fed supports Wall Street earnings, ignores corporate sector risks

In July 2007 , the US Federal Reserve warned that "credit concerns were spreading" and estimated that total bank losses due to US sub-prime loans could reach $100bn. Yet now , after the conclusion of its "stress tests", the Fed says...

Published 10 May 2009 14:49 by Chemicals & The Economy

Filed under: Economic growth, Financial Events, Futures trading, M & A, Leverage, Federal Reserve, bankruptcy, Minsky moment, unemployment
EU sees 11% jobless; US banks raise interest rates

The European Commission has again reduced its growth forecast for the EU. It now sees a 4% decline in GDP this year, and for the first time is suggesting that recovery will be delayed until mid-2010. As a result, it expects unemployment to reach 11%,...

Published 6 May 2009 0:23 by Chemicals & The Economy

Filed under: EU, Economic growth, M & A, Leverage, Federal Reserve, unemployment
Chrysler's bankruptcy marks dawn of new reality

The International eChem team are very experienced in turnarounds and restructurings. We have undertaken these both as employees within our former companies, and then as advisers. This has taught us to be alert for the 'tipping point', when a situation...

Published 3 May 2009 7:34 by Chemicals & The Economy

Filed under: Economic growth, Financial Events, M & A, Leverage, bankruptcy, Chrysler, GM, polymers
Quick updates

Chrysler. Yesterday, Chrysler entered bankruptcy . The hope is that this can be a "quick visit", lasting perhaps 30-60 days. But even if this can be achieved, there is little doubt that Chrysler's suppliers will suffer major write-offs Read...

Published 1 May 2009 11:46 by Chemicals & The Economy

Filed under: Economic growth, Japan, Financial Events, M & A, Leverage, Federal Reserve, Chrysler, Citigroup
Akzo results show depth of the downturn

The blog's chemical career began with selling raw materials to the paint industry during the recession of the early 1980's. Since then, it has always regarded the decorative paint sector as an excellent real-time indicator of underlying economic...

Published 23 Apr 2009 12:59 by Chemicals & The Economy

Filed under: Economic growth, Financial Events, M & A, Leverage, Akzo Nobel

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