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The next oil shock and petrochemicals

Apologies for letting this blog slip again, but have been busy trying to make a crust presenting ICIS training courses. And so as a bonus for our army of avid readers, here are my extended thoughts on the above: In the midst of the economic crisis it...

Published 24 May 2009 15:23 by Asian Chemical Connections

Filed under: China, BASF, OPEC, Olefins, Business, Oil & Gas, Markets, Methanol & Derivatives, Naphtha & other feedstocks, International eChem, Company Strategy, LyondellBasell, ICIS Training, financial crisis, International Energy Agency, crude-oil prices
Net lending declines by 70-80% in Q2 in China

This very interesting note from Jun Ma, chief economist for Greater China at Deutsche Bank (see the end of this post) offers evidence to support what this blog has been worried about for some time - the quality of China's economic rebound. The government...

Published 12 May 2009 6:42 by Asian Chemical Connections

Filed under: Economics, China, Olefins, Polyolefins, Business, Markets, Deutsche Bank, inventory management, China's economy, China's false recovery, China's economic recovery. China's bank lending
US-Asia Propylene arbitrage closes

As flagged up on this blog last week, ICIS news has confirmed that the US-Asia propylene arbitrage has shut following a rise in US domestic refinery-grade C3 prices. This could be good news if West-East arbitrage in general becomes more difficult. During...

Published 4 May 2009 10:07 by Asian Chemical Connections

Filed under: US, Olefins, Polyolefins, ICIS news, financial meltdown, piracy, US-Asia exports, arbitrage, Somalia
Is it better to be right for not quite......

......all the right reasons than to be wrong altogether? Sounds a dumb question, perhaps - unless you take particular pride in being one of those know-it-alls. The point I am trying to make (and assuming that chemicals pricing doesn't collapse beforehand...

Published 29 Apr 2009 15:33 by Asian Chemical Connections

Filed under: US, China, Europe, Middle East, Olefins, Polyolefins, Projects, Business, Oil & Gas, Naphtha & other feedstocks, global recession, China to export deflation, China's economy, swine flu, CBI Research & Consulting, BTX
It's getting darker and darker out there

It would be nice to start the weekend with a little cheer, but I'm afraid no amount of gormless optimism would work. DuPont, as you can see from this excellent piece from my colleague Nigel Davis at ICIS , has revised its forecast for 2009 global...

Published 24 Apr 2009 11:25 by Asian Chemical Connections

Filed under: US, Economics, China, Europe, Middle East, Olefins, Polyolefins, China's economy, high inventories, Canton Trade Fair, China unemployment, deflation threat, China Daily
The China Recovery Conundrum

Good news, bad or indifferent? It was hard to gauge a clear picture from the Q1 macroeconomic numbers for China. While retail sales grew at 14.7% in March compared with 11.5% in February, exports fell 20% during the first quarter. GDP (gross domestic...

Published 17 Apr 2009 7:24 by Asian Chemical Connections

Filed under: US, Economics, China, aromatics, Olefins, Polyolefins, Business, Markets, China economy, Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Deutsche Bank, China Q1, China Q1 growth
Some important new petchem trends

To keep you updated on what we believe is happening in petrochemicals, here are some important recent trends: *Futures markets in China are playing an increasingly important role in influencing pricing in polyolefins, methanol and PTA. Trading volume...

Published 15 Apr 2009 1:22 by Asian Chemical Connections

Filed under: US, China, aromatics, Olefins, Polyolefins, Oil & Gas, IEA, OECD, bear-market rally, China speculation, crude futures, chemicals share prices
China polyolefins even harder to read

I heard this evening this polyolefins prices are heading south in China, just as I'd finished writing this piece. Expect many more bear-market rallies and dips like this. But at least somebody has made some money for a couple of months. But if the...

Published 14 Apr 2009 16:13 by Asian Chemical Connections

Filed under: China, Olefins, Polyolefins, Oil & Gas, Naphtha & other feedstocks, Dalian Commodity Exchange, bear-market rally, China speculation, ethane versus naphtha prices
Asian petchems: A H2 Outlook

Petrochemical markets, as is the case with stock markets, are I believe in the midst of a bear-market rally. As chemicals consultant Paul Hodges predicted on his blog last year, restocking in Q1 was inevitable after the great inventory run-down of the...

Published 13 Apr 2009 10:48 by Asian Chemical Connections

Filed under: US, Economics, China, Europe, aromatics, Olefins, Polyolefins, Oil & Gas, Markets, Naphtha & other feedstocks, Bear Stearns, International eChem, Dalian Commodity Exchange, bear-market rally, China speculation, ethane versus naphtha prices
US petchem exports to lessen the pain?

There are reports, confirmed by one consultant, of a flood of US polyolefin exports from the US to Asia, China in particular. Staggering polyolefin import figures for China in January-February show big percentage increases both year-on-year and month...

Published 9 Apr 2009 9:19 by Asian Chemical Connections

Filed under: China, Olefins, Polyolefins, Business, Oil & Gas, Naphtha & other feedstocks, General Motors, Company Strategy, US-Asia exports, China self-sufficiency, Dalian Commodity Exchange
Lack of visibility makes planning a nightmare

Is it just me or is sentiment in chemicals markets even more erratic than usual? Only two weeks ago people were talking about an imminent supply glut in polypropylene , but now the talk is of tightness and stable prices. Perhaps those with more time on...

Published 17 Mar 2009 8:23 by Asian Chemical Connections

Filed under: China, India, Olefins, Polyolefins, Projects, financial meltdown, corporate restructuring
Cracker margins remain under pressure

The chart above, from Paul Ray's excellent 'ICIS Weekly Margin Report', clearly shows the level of pain currently being suffered by naphtha-based cracker operators. Based on European pricing, it also demonstrates the great difference between...

Published 9 Mar 2009 8:57 by Chemicals & The Economy

Filed under: Economic growth, Petrochemicals, Olefins, polymers
Short-term gain could equal long-term pain

In the depths of the Asian financial crisis an American industry executive said, "I don't know why Korea has a petrochemical industry. It should be just shut down." There were also widespread complaints over "soft" government-directed...

Published 26 Feb 2009 14:56 by Asian Chemical Connections

Filed under: aromatics, Olefins, Polyolefins, Business, Oil & Gas, Company Strategy, trade protection, Asian financial crisis, high leverage, soft loans
I don't want to gloat but I told you so....

It looks like olefins and aromatics prices are on the retreat in Asia as I predicted earlier this month. I only feel slightly smug because it seems obvious that naphtha was a big driver - and that markets were being talked up by producers desperate to...

Published 24 Feb 2009 10:00 by Asian Chemical Connections

Filed under: China, aromatics, Olefins, Polyolefins, Business, Oil & Gas, Naphtha & other feedstocks, Company Strategy, mini bubbles, talking markets up, Q4 inventory disaster, disastrous benzene, talking markets down
How to make money in a downturn Part 1

Herein begins an occasional series where I offer advice on how to make a little cash. By the way, is it me or do I get the sense that a lot companies haven't woken up to the severity of the crisis we are in? A recovery this, and I think quite probably...

Published 9 Feb 2009 13:16 by Asian Chemical Connections

Filed under: Economics, China, Indonesia, Europe, India, aromatics, Japan, Middle East, Olefins, Polyolefins, Styrenics, Business, Markets, Methanol & Derivatives, Malaysia, Philippines, Fibre Intermediates, Company Strategy, South Korea, financial meltdown, Kate Beckinsale, trade protection, antidumping petitions, living in cloud cuckoo land, John Cusack

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The next oil shock and petrochemicals

Net lending declines by 70-80% in Q2 in China

US-Asia Propylene arbitrage closes

Is it better to be right for not quite......

It's getting darker and darker out there

The China Recovery Conundrum

Some important new petchem trends

China polyolefins even harder to read

Asian petchems: A H2 Outlook

US petchem exports to lessen the pain?

Lack of visibility makes planning a nightmare

Cracker margins remain under pressure

Short-term gain could equal long-term pain

I don't want to gloat but I told you so....

How to make money in a downturn Part 1