ICIS Blogs : economics

Raining on the Optimists' Parade

Asian Chemical Connections — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 09:09:41 GMT

Source: The Guardian newspaper Apologies for letting this bog slip again. I am on leave, but still pondering where on earth we are heading. This makes a welcome relief from staring up at the grey skies and thinking "summer? What summer?" Yes...(read more)

Be very careful what you wish for...

Asian Chemical Connections — Fri, 29 May 2009 06:17:34 GMT

Source of picture: The Nymex To continue the same theme of earlier this week, I agree with my fellow blogger Paul Hodges when he warns that OPEC's price target for $75-80/bbl could nip the nascent economic recovery in the bud. As he quite rightly...(read more)

Maybe it's not as bleak as I've made out...

Asian Chemical Connections — Mon, 18 May 2009 08:07:23 GMT

Consensus opinion tends to swing firmly in one direction and then the other. For example, in the good old days of 2007 you would have been pretty hard-pressed to find many in the chemicals industry who saw anything but a mildly cyclical downturn. But...(read more)

It's about scaling down rather than up

Asian Chemical Connections — Thu, 14 May 2009 07:06:31 GMT

One of the new skills being learnt in this current crisis is how to run plants efficiently at low operating rates. "It's funny that for years now, we've worried about how to scale up profitably. Now industry is faced with just the opposite...(read more)

Net lending declines by 70-80% in Q2 in China

Asian Chemical Connections — Tue, 12 May 2009 05:42:43 GMT

This very interesting note from Jun Ma, chief economist for Greater China at Deutsche Bank (see the end of this post) offers evidence to support what this blog has been worried about for some time - the quality of China's economic rebound. The government...(read more)

How long can bear-market rallies last?

Asian Chemical Connections — Mon, 11 May 2009 13:26:49 GMT

The current run-up in equities might go on and on - perhaps even for several years, according to economist Russell Napier. But he warns, in this excellent video interview with FT journalist John Authers, that an extended boom in equities doesn't necessarily...(read more)

Aussie on a losing wicket

Asian Chemical Connections — Sat, 09 May 2009 16:25:54 GMT

The timing of when to strike the ball is everything in the wonderful sport of cricket - and also, apparently, in the American pastime of baseball. An Australian banker is fond of reminding the English how much better his country is at playing cricket...(read more)

Micro-management gone too far?

Asian Chemical Connections — Fri, 08 May 2009 06:26:49 GMT

"Nobody can see until the end of the month - never mind into the third quarter," commented an olefins trader recently. "The reason is that very senior managers are too busy micro-managing everything, from getting involved in trying to track...(read more)

Reasons to be cheerful?

Asian Chemical Connections — Wed, 06 May 2009 09:48:09 GMT

Any excuse to make a reference to the late, great and wonderful Ian Dury. I sent the following email to my friend in response to the stock market rallies and the green shoots of optimism seemingly turning into beautiful May flowers: "I take it nothing...(read more)

It really is a Mad World

Asian Chemical Connections — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 01:47:35 GMT

As the potential swine flu pandemi threatens more lives - and even more damage to the global economy - it's time to watch American Idol re-runs. It would be great if we could all collectively retire to some paradise island where Manchester Utd and...(read more)

It's getting darker and darker out there

Asian Chemical Connections — Fri, 24 Apr 2009 10:25:19 GMT

It would be nice to start the weekend with a little cheer, but I'm afraid no amount of gormless optimism would work. DuPont, as you can see from this excellent piece from my colleague Nigel Davis at ICIS , has revised its forecast for 2009 global...(read more)

China's economy: A case of wishful thinking?

Asian Chemical Connections — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 09:53:05 GMT

Could the chemicals industry be in danger of wanting to believe something so much that ignores overwhelming evidence to the contrary? The widespread perception is that China's economy has reached a turning point. "The worst of the crisis is over...(read more)

The China Recovery Conundrum

Asian Chemical Connections — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 06:24:16 GMT

Good news, bad or indifferent? It was hard to gauge a clear picture from the Q1 macroeconomic numbers for China. While retail sales grew at 14.7% in March compared with 11.5% in February, exports fell 20% during the first quarter. GDP (gross domestic...(read more)

Asian petchems: A H2 Outlook

Asian Chemical Connections — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 09:48:10 GMT

Petrochemical markets, as is the case with stock markets, are I believe in the midst of a bear-market rally. As chemicals consultant Paul Hodges predicted on his blog last year, restocking in Q1 was inevitable after the great inventory run-down of the...(read more)

If manufacturers started buying up their suppliers....

Asian Chemical Connections — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 14:44:06 GMT

This excellent article from The Economist about vertical integration got me thinking that if, say, auto makers start buying up parts suppliers in developed markets (in developing markets the plastics processing industry is too fragmented) we could end...(read more)