ICIS Blogs : housing

Gasoline markets slip, financial markets stumble

Chemicals & The Economy — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 19:47:44 GMT

Yesterday's financial market action was very revealing. As Olivier Jakob of Petromatrix perceptively describes it, "liquidation on gasoline led to a correction in crude oil, which in turn pressured equity markets". The problem is that financial...(read more)

China and US house prices

Chemicals & The Economy — Wed, 27 May 2009 20:39:03 GMT

The Financial Times highlights the overwhelming importance of falling US house prices to the outlook for the global economy. It notes that prices are now falling by 2.2%/month, causing a $380bn wealth loss in March alone. It adds that if prices continue...(read more)

US house prices, building permits, see record declines

Chemicals & The Economy — Tue, 26 May 2009 16:27:24 GMT

US house prices are still seeing "record declines" according to today's Case-Shiller home price index . The national price was down 19.1% from March 2008, and 32% from the Q2 2006 peak. As before, the over-built Sunbelt led the way, with...(read more)

House prices falling around the world

Chemicals & The Economy — Thu, 14 May 2009 08:55:37 GMT

Only 8 countries saw house prices rise, adjusted for inflation, in 2008, out of 32 major property markets. And according to Global Property Guide , "downward price momentum significantly accelerated" in Q4, with 9 countries seeing 5% price falls...(read more)

US housing starts stabilise

Chemicals & The Economy — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 13:48:55 GMT

As the blog had hoped , US housing starts have stabilised in recent weeks. As the chart from Wall Street Journal shows, single-family home starts in March remained at c360,000 for the 3rd month running. Equally, the National Association of Home Builders'...(read more)

US house prices below 1979 levels in real terms

Chemicals & The Economy — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 14:31:12 GMT

US house prices remain on a "downward path" according to today's latest S&P Case-Shiller house price index . S&P report that in terms of nominal prices (including inflation), "average home prices across the US are now at similar...(read more)

US housing market decline may start to slow

Chemicals & The Economy — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 07:18:09 GMT

US new home sales began falling in 2005, when they peaked at 1.4 million a month. Last month, as the above chart from the ACC weekly report shows, they were down to just 337,000. Similarly, new home inventory has risen to 12 months. Each new home uses...(read more)

US home sales keep falling

Chemicals & The Economy — Sun, 01 Mar 2009 07:24:22 GMT

Kevin Swift at the American Chemistry Council issued a new 2009 Outlook this week. His analysis suggests that we will see a V-shaped recession, as the "massive stimulus being injected into the US and other world economies will foster demand and a...(read more)

25% of US sub-prime loans "seriously delinquent"

Chemicals & The Economy — Mon, 16 Feb 2009 15:48:08 GMT

Speaking today , Federal Reserve Governor Elizabeth Duke produced some doleful figures about the current state of the US housing market. She noted that 25% of sub-prime loans, and 13% of near-prime loans, are now "seriously delinquent" - either...(read more)

The man with a plan

Chemicals & The Economy — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 06:55:56 GMT

Yet again, as in October, 'buy on the rumour, sell on the news' has been the financial markets' reaction to the latest efforts to solve the financial crisis. A 5% fall on Wall Street last night, in response to the Geithner plan, tells its...(read more)

Brazil's exports fall 29%

Chemicals & The Economy — Wed, 04 Feb 2009 11:40:08 GMT

The emerging economies, which built their growth on exports to the West, are being badly hit by the global recession. Brazil, where poverty levels were at their lowest level for 30 years, is now seeing recent gains unwind. Its exports fell 29% in January...(read more)

Global chemical production down 4.4% in November

Chemicals & The Economy — Sun, 25 Jan 2009 17:43:49 GMT

Global chemical production is now falling at an alarming rate, down over 4% in November, as core demand from housing/construction and auto markets collapses. Only the Middle East is now seeing positive growth year-on-year. As the chart shows (using ACC...(read more)

INEOS announce €1bn inventory loss in Q4

Chemicals & The Economy — Sun, 25 Jan 2009 17:14:22 GMT

In early October , I forecast that we were about to revisit "the scariest moment of my 30 year chemical career", adding that: "The moment the blog has long feared, and warned about , may be about to arrive. It appears that we may be about...(read more)

Asian economies hit: US home starts slump

Chemicals & The Economy — Thu, 22 Jan 2009 14:36:30 GMT

Asia is hard-hit by the downturn in the Western economy. Today, China said its Q4 GDP had grown just 6.8%, the slowest level since 2001. This led premier Wen Jiabao to say the outlook for jobs was "very grim". It also increased speculation that...(read more)

INEOS, Georgia Gulf, Chemtura bond prices plunge

Chemicals & The Economy — Tue, 20 Jan 2009 15:47:11 GMT

Bond markets are a good place to look if you want to understand the outlook for major companies in the chemical industry. A key market is in 'credit default swaps' (CDS), which offer insurance against the possibility that a company might default...(read more)