ICIS Blogs : olefins

The next oil shock and petrochemicals

Asian Chemical Connections — Sun, 24 May 2009 14:23:10 GMT

Apologies for letting this blog slip again, but have been busy trying to make a crust presenting ICIS training courses. And so as a bonus for our army of avid readers, here are my extended thoughts on the above: In the midst of the economic crisis it...(read more)

Net lending declines by 70-80% in Q2 in China

Asian Chemical Connections — Tue, 12 May 2009 05:42:43 GMT

This very interesting note from Jun Ma, chief economist for Greater China at Deutsche Bank (see the end of this post) offers evidence to support what this blog has been worried about for some time - the quality of China's economic rebound. The government...(read more)

US-Asia Propylene arbitrage closes

Asian Chemical Connections — Mon, 04 May 2009 09:07:21 GMT

As flagged up on this blog last week, ICIS news has confirmed that the US-Asia propylene arbitrage has shut following a rise in US domestic refinery-grade C3 prices. This could be good news if West-East arbitrage in general becomes more difficult. During...(read more)

Is it better to be right for not quite......

Asian Chemical Connections — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 14:33:33 GMT

......all the right reasons than to be wrong altogether? Sounds a dumb question, perhaps - unless you take particular pride in being one of those know-it-alls. The point I am trying to make (and assuming that chemicals pricing doesn't collapse beforehand...(read more)

It's getting darker and darker out there

Asian Chemical Connections — Fri, 24 Apr 2009 10:25:19 GMT

It would be nice to start the weekend with a little cheer, but I'm afraid no amount of gormless optimism would work. DuPont, as you can see from this excellent piece from my colleague Nigel Davis at ICIS , has revised its forecast for 2009 global...(read more)

The China Recovery Conundrum

Asian Chemical Connections — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 06:24:16 GMT

Good news, bad or indifferent? It was hard to gauge a clear picture from the Q1 macroeconomic numbers for China. While retail sales grew at 14.7% in March compared with 11.5% in February, exports fell 20% during the first quarter. GDP (gross domestic...(read more)

Some important new petchem trends

Asian Chemical Connections — Wed, 15 Apr 2009 00:22:03 GMT

To keep you updated on what we believe is happening in petrochemicals, here are some important recent trends: *Futures markets in China are playing an increasingly important role in influencing pricing in polyolefins, methanol and PTA. Trading volume...(read more)

China polyolefins even harder to read

Asian Chemical Connections — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 15:13:26 GMT

I heard this evening this polyolefins prices are heading south in China, just as I'd finished writing this piece. Expect many more bear-market rallies and dips like this. But at least somebody has made some money for a couple of months. But if the...(read more)

Asian petchems: A H2 Outlook

Asian Chemical Connections — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 09:48:10 GMT

Petrochemical markets, as is the case with stock markets, are I believe in the midst of a bear-market rally. As chemicals consultant Paul Hodges predicted on his blog last year, restocking in Q1 was inevitable after the great inventory run-down of the...(read more)

US petchem exports to lessen the pain?

Asian Chemical Connections — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 08:19:10 GMT

There are reports, confirmed by one consultant, of a flood of US polyolefin exports from the US to Asia, China in particular. Staggering polyolefin import figures for China in January-February show big percentage increases both year-on-year and month...(read more)

Lack of visibility makes planning a nightmare

Asian Chemical Connections — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 08:23:26 GMT

Is it just me or is sentiment in chemicals markets even more erratic than usual? Only two weeks ago people were talking about an imminent supply glut in polypropylene , but now the talk is of tightness and stable prices. Perhaps those with more time on...(read more)

Cracker margins remain under pressure

Chemicals & The Economy — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 08:57:57 GMT

The chart above, from Paul Ray's excellent 'ICIS Weekly Margin Report', clearly shows the level of pain currently being suffered by naphtha-based cracker operators. Based on European pricing, it also demonstrates the great difference between...(read more)

Short-term gain could equal long-term pain

Asian Chemical Connections — Thu, 26 Feb 2009 14:56:32 GMT

In the depths of the Asian financial crisis an American industry executive said, "I don't know why Korea has a petrochemical industry. It should be just shut down." There were also widespread complaints over "soft" government-directed...(read more)

I don't want to gloat but I told you so....

Asian Chemical Connections — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 10:00:18 GMT

It looks like olefins and aromatics prices are on the retreat in Asia as I predicted earlier this month. I only feel slightly smug because it seems obvious that naphtha was a big driver - and that markets were being talked up by producers desperate to...(read more)

How to make money in a downturn Part 1

Asian Chemical Connections — Mon, 09 Feb 2009 13:16:42 GMT

Herein begins an occasional series where I offer advice on how to make a little cash. By the way, is it me or do I get the sense that a lot companies haven't woken up to the severity of the crisis we are in? A recovery this, and I think quite probably...(read more)