ICIS Blogs : recession

World Bank sees deeper recession

Chemicals & The Economy — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 09:57:51 GMT

The chemical industry is always a leading indicator of the global economy. One of the blog's oldest friends used to be a central banker, and he made no secret of the fact that our discussions about demand levels were often an important factor in his...(read more)

After destocking, chemical volumes remain down 15-20%

Chemicals & The Economy — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 19:06:24 GMT

The great wave of destocking is finally coming to an end. And it is clear that underlying global demand is well below previous "normal" levels. The evidence for this can be seen in the above chart, based on American Chemistry Council data, which...(read more)

Industrial output decline follows Depression trend

Chemicals & The Economy — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 12:34:22 GMT

Sweden is an influential adviser on credit crunch issues. This is because of the lessons it learned during its own major banking collapse in the early 1990's, which has close parallels with today's global crisis. Its central bank argues that the...(read more)

The Boom/Gloom Index©

Chemicals & The Economy — Sun, 14 Jun 2009 06:01:30 GMT

Markets are driven by two factors, sentiment and fundamentals. Fundamentals can be followed by analysing hard data. In chemical markets, for example, key areas include new housing starts, auto sales, industrial production, Asian exports, etc. This data...(read more)

Markets in Wonderland

Chemicals & The Economy — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 13:41:19 GMT

"Sometimes, I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast" said the Queen in Lewis Carroll's famous book, 'Alice in Wonderland' Today would have been a good day for her to practise this ability, as she read...(read more)

Saudi confirms $75/bbl oil price target

Chemicals & The Economy — Thu, 28 May 2009 08:10:43 GMT

Back in December , the blog analysed statements by King Abdullah, and concluded that Saudi Arabia had a 'target range' for oil prices of $75 - 100/bbl. Yesterday , this analysis was confirmed by Saudi Oil Minister, Ali Naimi, who said the world...(read more)

"Green shoots" likely to be "yellow weeds"

Chemicals & The Economy — Sun, 24 May 2009 02:55:26 GMT

The full extent of the recent damage to chemical industry output can be seen in the above chart, based on new figures from the American Chemistry Council. The story is stark: • Global chemical output was down 14% in March, after falling off a cliff in...(read more)

EU GDP falls 2.5%, auto sales down 12%

Chemicals & The Economy — Sat, 16 May 2009 09:13:58 GMT

Continental Europe is now in its worst recession since World War 2. GDP fell 2.5% in Q1, following a 1.6% fall in Q4. Germany, often viewed as the 'motor' of the eurozone, saw its GDP fall a shocking 3.8% as markets for its export-driven economy...(read more)

Price is king even in green

Green Chemicals — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 19:59:56 GMT

Be green all you want but admit it - the amount in your wallet (especially at times like this) is more important than your green conscience. A study from consulting firm Deloitte confirmed the same sentiment among shoppers although Deloitte said some...(read more)

Boom, bust and blondes

ICIS Chemicals Confidential — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 08:47:46 GMT

You can tell there's a recession on by the amount of chemicals we're putting on our hair. It's the equivalent of the "lipstick effect": when money is tight, it's a cheap way to update your look. Figures from L'Oreal show...(read more)

Deflation worries hit Europe

Chemicals & The Economy — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 12:52:39 GMT

Parts of Europe are now following the US lead and seeing deflation. Spain saw prices fell 0.1% last month, for the first time since records began in 1961. In the UK, the retail prices index fell 0.4%, to register the first decline since 1959. Prices have...(read more)

A forecasting joke

ICIS Chemicals Confidential — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 12:04:24 GMT

My friend Paul Hodges was here in the office on Friday and showed me a shocking slide from a presentation which a well-known chemicals consultancy had given at an industry briefing in June 2008, showing peak oil continuing for years to come and hence...(read more)

Deflation hits the USA

Chemicals & The Economy — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 08:54:40 GMT

US consumer prices fell for the first time since 1955 last month . Deflation was more common before 1955, and in the 1929-33 period prices fell by c10% a year. The danger of deflation is that it changes the entire psychology of purchasing. With inflation...(read more)

Restocking begins but the downturn continues

Chemicals & The Economy — Sun, 12 Apr 2009 18:41:25 GMT

Recently the blog has identified a number of signs that US housing and auto markets are stabilising, at least temporarily. This should feed through into chemical demand during Q2, and enable production volumes to show some improvement. W hat happens next...(read more)

Benzene price surge indicates end to destocking

Chemicals & The Economy — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 05:53:45 GMT

Benzene is the blog's favourite leading indicator of chemical industry demand. It is one of the most widely used products and, as a liquid, it is also widely traded. Its recent successes as an indicator include calling a peak on industry profitability...(read more)