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The global stock market decline

Alan Greenspan's comments ( below ), led the blog to investigate how the world's major stock markets had moved since their recent peaks. All, as shown in the chart, are now in bear markets. Stock markets often forecast economic developments 6 - 12 months ahead, and so this represents a negative...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 09-18-2008
August highlights

Many readers have been out of the office during August on a well-deserved break. I am therefore highlighting below the main postings over the past month, in the hope this will help them to catch up quickly on key developments - please click on the highlighted title if you want to read the original posting...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 09-01-2008
The blog's first birthday

Its now a year since the blog started. Since then, 213 postings have appeared. It is now read in 72 countries and 620 cities (shown above). Most encouragingly, readership continues to steadily increase. Since January, it has risen a further 301%. The blog's aim is to identify 'the influences...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 07-05-2008
Asian stockmarkets fall on stagflation risk

I noted earlier this year that China was now exporting inflation, rather than the deflation of the past decade. Working in Asia again this week, one can see a major change in attitudes is now underway. Rising food and energy prices are having an enormous impact, and Asian governments are clearly nervous...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 06-15-2008
Interesting quotes (5)

Every now and then , a few interesting quotes come along, which seem to recent summarise developments, and set the tone for the next few months. The last few days is a good example of this process at work: 'The era of cheap energy is over, as oil production isn't rising fast enough to meet demand...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 06-09-2008
Sinopec receives $1bn subsidy in April

Sinopec is now losing 3000 yuan ($425) on every tonne of oil product sold, due to China's price freeze, according to Sinopec spokesman Chen Ge yesterday . And this is on top of official government subsidies paid to Sinopec, which rocketed to $1bn in April. This was more that the entire subsidy paid...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 05-27-2008
China exports inflation (2)

I noted back in February that China is no longer exporting price deflation, and is instead causing global prices for commodities and manufactured goods to rise. A reader has now kindly sent me an interesting report from Credit Suisse, commenting on the potential inflationary impact of new labour laws...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 05-06-2008
Russian crude supply 'peaking'

Russia is the world’s 2nd largest oil producer. And it has been the main source of increased crude production in recent years. Its output rose 58% between 1999-2006, from 6.2mbd to 9.8mbd. Now Lukoil’s VP, Leonid Fedun, has told the Financial Times that he thinks 2007 output will be ‘ the highest he...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 04-16-2008
Inflation worries increase in China, USA

China announced yesterday that inflation had soared again last month, reaching 8.7%, versus the government target of 4.8%. Part of the increase is clearly due to the effects of recent major storms . But with the US Fed likely to cut rates soon, China remains in a difficult position. If it increases interest...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 03-11-2008
4 issues driving today’s oil price

Quietly, oil has moved back to the $100/bbl level . This is quite different from January, when it first hit the magic $100/bbl number. Financial players had jumped on the trend from November as crude rose above $80/bbl, and then wanted to ‘get out at the top’. Their thinking was that a US recession would...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 02-21-2008

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