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August highlights

Many readers have been out of the office during August on a well-deserved break. I am therefore highlighting below the main postings over the past month, in the hope this will help them to catch up quickly on key developments - please click on the highlighted title if you want to read the original posting...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 09-01-2008
A sombre outlook

Housing is a vital market for chemical companies. It boomed in the US and other Western countries as credit standards were relaxed between 2003-7. Now it is at the centre of the credit crunch. Martin Feldstein, Harvard economics professor, and the man who chairs the Board that determines the duration...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 08-27-2008
The 'slow motion train wreck' continues

A year ago, the noted investment analyst, Jeremy Grantham, described the credit crisis as a 'slow motion train wreck'. The Financial Times has now updated the metaphor to describe what has happened since. It notes that train crashes happen more quickly than economic ones, and that there are pauses...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 08-19-2008
BASF reduce 2008 global GDP forecast

BASF have now reduced their 2008 GDP forecast from 2.8% to 2.4%. This may sound a small amount, but it means it is now in line with the Global Downturn Scenario set out in our Feedstocks for Profit Study. Previously, it had been just below our Base Case Scenario. CEO Jurgen Hambrecht still sounds confident...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 08-19-2008
Global inflation on the rise

Pimco, the world's largest bond investors, are worried about rising inflation . Their main concern is that many Asian and Middle Eastern countries had 'anchored' their currency to the US$. 'With that anchor gone', they comment, 'due to the US Federal Reserve's focus on preventing...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 08-14-2008
Bank of England warns on inflation

Andrew Sentance of the Bank of England has issued a very clear analysis of current oil and commodity price movements. It rejects the view that these have been caused by speculators. Instead it points to increasing demand, and lack of supply, as the principal causes of today's higher prices. The slide...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 07-17-2008
European refining margins 'at 4 year low'

European refining margins are falling, as the US's need for gasoline imports reduces. Margins have reached a 4 year low of minus $6.21/bbl , according to Bloomberg. And the problem is likely to get worse, as the US moves towards greater self-sufficiency in gasoline via refinery expansions and increased...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 07-08-2008
The 'difficult task of damage control'

The central bankers' bank (the Bank for International Settlements) is not very impressed with its members' efforts over the past year. Readers may remember that its Report last year explicitly warned of the problems that were about to occur in world financial markets. This year's Report expresses...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 07-08-2008
The blog's first birthday

Its now a year since the blog started. Since then, 213 postings have appeared. It is now read in 72 countries and 620 cities (shown above). Most encouragingly, readership continues to steadily increase. Since January, it has risen a further 301%. The blog's aim is to identify 'the influences...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 07-05-2008
Israel's training exercise worries oil markets

The US has now confirmed what oil traders have been suspecting - that Israel is preparing for a bombing raid on Iran's alleged nuclear facilities. According to Bloomberg and the New York Times , around 100 Israeli aircraft took part in a full-scale training exercise in early June. The distance it...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 06-24-2008

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