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  • Current account deficits start to matter

    The US Fed’s decision to keep cutting interest rates is causing a major change in Asian investment behaviour. This will slow world economic growth quite significantly, and is bad news for chemical industry sales. It also means that the informal Bretton Woods II (BWII ) system of currency management has...
    Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 03-31-2008

  • Oil price volatility rises

    Volatility has been rising in the crude oil and feedstocks markets. Different players have completely different strategies. This makes it difficult for chemical companies to plan ahead in terms of their feedstock costs. In turn, this will adversely impact their margins. Last Monday, crude reached a new...
    Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 03-24-2008

  • The US$ tumbles

    The US$ took a major tumble yesterday, as traders decided the Bear Stearns news meant there was little risk of central bank intervention. Against the Japanese yen it fell almost 2.5% during the day, closing at ¥97.35, as shown on the chart. It also fell 2% against the Swiss Franc to SwFr 0.98, and continues...
    Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 03-18-2008

  • US$ falls below ¥100, crude goes above $110/bbl

    The US$ had now fallen through the ¥102 level, which has held since 1995, and went straight to the psychologically important ¥100 level . The dollar peaked 9 months ago at ¥124, and so it has now fallen 19%. This is dramatic by any standards. I forecast back in November that an ‘old-fashioned currency...
    Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 03-13-2008

  • Buffett says US is in recession

    ‘If it walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then its a duck’. This simple logic probably best sums up Warren Buffett’s position on the current state of the US economy. ‘By any commonsense definition’, said Buffett yesterday, ‘ the US is in recession’ . Buffett is the world’s leading investor. And...
    Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 03-04-2008

  • Japan’s factory output weakens

    The blog has been following the debate over ‘decoupling’ with some interest. With the US going into a downturn, it is critical to understand whether Asian chemical markets will follow. Until recently, they have been buoyant, allowing US companies to make up for some of the decline in their domestic markets...
    Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 02-28-2008

  • 4 issues driving today’s oil price

    Quietly, oil has moved back to the $100/bbl level . This is quite different from January, when it first hit the magic $100/bbl number. Financial players had jumped on the trend from November as crude rose above $80/bbl, and then wanted to ‘get out at the top’. Their thinking was that a US recession would...
    Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 02-21-2008

  • The renminbi keeps rising

    I noted last month that China seemed to have changed policy with regard to the renminbi. Since then, its rise versus the US$ has accelerated, as shown in the above chart from Merrill Lynch (ML). Since August, it has been rising at an annualised rate of 13%. ML’s explanation is that the government is...
    Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 02-10-2008
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