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Israel's training exercise worries oil markets

The US has now confirmed what oil traders have been suspecting - that Israel is preparing for a bombing raid on Iran's alleged nuclear facilities. According to Bloomberg and the New York Times , around 100 Israeli aircraft took part in a full-scale training exercise in early June. The distance it...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 06-24-2008
Asian stockmarkets fall on stagflation risk

I noted earlier this year that China was now exporting inflation, rather than the deflation of the past decade. Working in Asia again this week, one can see a major change in attitudes is now underway. Rising food and energy prices are having an enormous impact, and Asian governments are clearly nervous...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 06-15-2008
Interesting quotes (5)

Every now and then , a few interesting quotes come along, which seem to recent summarise developments, and set the tone for the next few months. The last few days is a good example of this process at work: 'The era of cheap energy is over, as oil production isn't rising fast enough to meet demand...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 06-09-2008
High inflation, or global downturn?

Central bankers had it easy over the past decade. Now they are going to have to earn their money. Inflation is rising rapidly, and growth rates are falling. But unfortunately, as I first noted back in March , they still seem to have differing ideas about what policies will best counter these twin challenges...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 06-08-2008
Dow raises prices by up to 20%

Dow today announced that it is raising prices for 'all of its products by up to 20 percent - depending on their exposure to rising energy, feedstock and transportation costs - and will review all terms to all customers'. Dow CEO, Andrew Liveris, said that Dow's 'first quarter feedstock...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 05-28-2008
Sinopec receives $1bn subsidy in April

Sinopec is now losing 3000 yuan ($425) on every tonne of oil product sold, due to China's price freeze, according to Sinopec spokesman Chen Ge yesterday . And this is on top of official government subsidies paid to Sinopec, which rocketed to $1bn in April. This was more that the entire subsidy paid...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 05-27-2008
Russia's oil trader

Increases in Russian oil supply have played a major role in balancing world oil markets, at a time when other non-OPEC sources such as the N Sea have been declining. Production rose from 6.2mbd in 1999 to 9.6mbd by 2006. But as I noted last month , there are signs it may now have peaked. The reason for...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 05-18-2008
Interest rates to rise by the end of May

Headline interest rates are set by central banks. But the ones that we actually pay, as consumers or companies, are set by the banks themselves. And most of these are based on LIBOR - the London Inter-Bank Offer Rate - which is the main benchmark for $62 trillion of borrowing around the world. Now it...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 05-14-2008
China exports inflation (2)

I noted back in February that China is no longer exporting price deflation, and is instead causing global prices for commodities and manufactured goods to rise. A reader has now kindly sent me an interesting report from Credit Suisse, commenting on the potential inflationary impact of new labour laws...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 05-06-2008
We all make mistakes

Anthony Bolton’s investment column this weekend contains another nugget of wisdom. Coincidentally, it is linked with Archie Norman’s ‘tip for management’ which I quote below. Bolton is the UK’s most successful fund manager . And he certainly shares Norman’s sense about the need to be humble. In fact...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 05-04-2008

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