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  • A "V-", "U-", "W-" or "L-shaped" recession?

    There is now general agreement that we are in a global recession. The World Bank's new 'Global Economic Prospects' report forecasts global GDP growth of 2.5% in 2008, and just 0.9% next year. This is well below the 3% level that signals recession. And the Bank also forecasts that world trade...
    Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 12-14-2008

  • A low-key G-20 meeting

    The first-ever G-20 meeting of Heads of State was a relatively quiet event , without the presence of President-elect Obama. Two main areas seem to have been discussed : • Regulatory reform, where finance ministers have been given until the end of March to work out new rules for the world's financial...
    Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 11-18-2008

  • Bank of England cuts to 3%, warns on deflation

    UK interest rates have just been cut by 1.5% to 3%. The Bank of England had been very concerned about inflation, currently at 5.2%, compared to a target of 2%. But the Bank now sees no danger from inflation in the future. Instead, it is warning that there is "a substantial risk of undershooting...
    Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 11-06-2008

  • Obama wins, Bush stays in office

    Sen. Barack Obama duly won a landslide victory in yesterday's US Presidential election, but will not take office until 20 January. I suggested last month in ICB, that "this delay, at such a critical moment, is not good news for chemical companies or for their customers". The blog therefore...
    Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 11-05-2008

  • A downturn, not a dip (1)

    Sometimes markets move because of sentiment, sometimes because of fundamentals. Sometimes (luckily rarely), because of blind panic. The latter is what we are seeing at the moment. Investors suddenly feel they MUST sell - whether because they need the cash, have completely lost confidence, or because...
    Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 10-26-2008

  • A downturn, not a dip (2)

    The blog first raised this issue last December , when noting that global chemical industry production growth had already "slowed significantly". At that time, it questioned whether "central bankers will be able to wave the magic wand that restores us to a growth path". And it warned...
    Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 10-26-2008
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