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  • China's exports fall, imports collapse

    China has just reported its first fall in exports for 7 years. These were still growing at 19.1% in October, but fell 2.2% in November. The suddenness of the downturn is also shown in the import figures, which were down 17.9% versus 2007. The numbers confirm the blog's long-expressed fear that China...
    Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 12-10-2008

  • China's export dependency grows

    New light has been shed on the critical question of whether domestic growth in China, and Asia, can substitute for slowing western growth. It turns out, according to research by the Royal Bank of Scotland, that both have become more export-intensive in recent years, not less: • China's exports were...
    Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 09-29-2008

  • The end of 'stretch targets'

    There is little doubt that chemical growth is weakening. The above chart, taken from Kevin Swift's excellent weekly report for the American Chemistry Council, indicates that a serious downturn is underway. Since January, world production growth (the solid green line) has halved - from 4.1%, to 1...
    Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 07-27-2008

  • Asian stockmarkets fall on stagflation risk

    I noted earlier this year that China was now exporting inflation, rather than the deflation of the past decade. Working in Asia again this week, one can see a major change in attitudes is now underway. Rising food and energy prices are having an enormous impact, and Asian governments are clearly nervous...
    Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 06-15-2008

  • A tale of two outlooks – part 2

    In an early blog last July , I marvelled at the contrast between the then upbeat nature of financial markets, and the gloom apparent elsewhere. I suggested that these two views of life couldn’t ‘continue to exist alongside each other for ever’, and suggested that whatever scenario came out on top would...
    Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 04-20-2008
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