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The global stock market decline

Alan Greenspan's comments ( below ), led the blog to investigate how the world's major stock markets had moved since their recent peaks. All, as shown in the chart, are now in bear markets. Stock markets often forecast economic developments 6 - 12 months ahead, and so this represents a negative...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 09-18-2008
Auto sales fall around the world

August was a bad month for US auto sales. GM said sales were down 20%, Toyota were down 9%, Ford down 26% and Chrysler fell 35%. They even lost 4th place in US ranking, as Honda's sales fell 'only' 7%. This set the blog wondering about relative performance, and the chart shows the result...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 09-14-2008
The blog's first birthday

Its now a year since the blog started. Since then, 213 postings have appeared. It is now read in 72 countries and 620 cities (shown above). Most encouragingly, readership continues to steadily increase. Since January, it has risen a further 301%. The blog's aim is to identify 'the influences...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 07-05-2008
Agriculture - the new focus for chemical demand

A first visit to Cambodia. I'm here en route to our Asian Conference in Bangkok, and the picture shows the famous line of Buddhas at Angkor Wat. But the main topic of conversation when talking to local people is the high cost of food and energy. With wages averaging $30 - $35 a week, these costs...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 06-22-2008
Oil hits $140/bbl

Chemical companies are still getting used to the idea that crude is trading above $100/bbl. For many of them, this was a complete shock, as many had believed the consensus view and budgeted for a $70/bbl average in 2008. Now, however, worse news is in prospect as forward prices have been racing away...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 05-21-2008
A tale of two outlooks – part 2

In an early blog last July , I marvelled at the contrast between the then upbeat nature of financial markets, and the gloom apparent elsewhere. I suggested that these two views of life couldn’t ‘continue to exist alongside each other for ever’, and suggested that whatever scenario came out on top would...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 04-20-2008
India feels credit squeeze

India is apparently facing its own subprime crisis . Banks have cut back on lending, as the Bank of India has caused real interest rates to rise to around 7%. Loan growth is already down 20% this year, with personal unsecured loans facing the greatest cutbacks. ICICI, India’s largest bank, has withdrawn...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 03-13-2008
4 issues driving today’s oil price

Quietly, oil has moved back to the $100/bbl level . This is quite different from January, when it first hit the magic $100/bbl number. Financial players had jumped on the trend from November as crude rose above $80/bbl, and then wanted to ‘get out at the top’. Their thinking was that a US recession would...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 02-21-2008
The law of unintended consequences

There’s an interesting article on Bloomberg, suggesting that the US Fed’s dramatic interest rates reductions are ‘ driving Asia’s governments back to controlled economies’ . Its argument is that by cutting rates, Bernanke is ‘limiting his Asian counterparts’ ability to curb inflation'. It goes on...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 02-19-2008

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