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Bank shares drop on LyondellBasell exposure

The fallout from the Lyondell bankruptcy continues to grow. One analyst has suggested Swiss bank UBS has exposure of $500m - $1.5bn . Other banks, including the UK's RBS, also have large exposures. Writing-off these debts will in turn reduce the banks' own capital. And so it will further reduce...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 01-08-2009
The CEO's survival guide

The past few weeks have not been good for the chemical industry, with 4 major companies suffering significant problems: BASF warned that "customer demand in key markets has declined significantly" since October, and have temporarily shutdown 80 plants worldwide, whilst reducing production at...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 01-06-2009
The impact of banking crises

The blog has been searching the websites of the major central banks, such as the IMF, World Bank, Federal Reserve and Bank of England, for research on the history of credit crises. Several readers, including Paul Noble of Parsons Brinckerhoff, have also kindly forwarded helpful studies. The most comprehensive...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 12-28-2008
A "V-", "U-", "W-" or "L-shaped" recession?

There is now general agreement that we are in a global recession. The World Bank's new 'Global Economic Prospects' report forecasts global GDP growth of 2.5% in 2008, and just 0.9% next year. This is well below the 3% level that signals recession. And the Bank also forecasts that world trade...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 12-14-2008
Soros on leverage

George Soros is one of the most successful investors in recent decades. The blog came across today a report of Soros' graphic description of the dangers of having too much debt in a business, or personally: "Leverage was like driving along a straight, clear freeway with a sharp spike pointing...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 12-13-2008
China focuses on domestic growth

In September, the blog wondered whether "China's interest in remaining the manufacturing capital of the world may be starting to wane". Yesterday , Lou Jiwei, the chairman of China's sovereign wealth fund (China Investment Corporation) confirmed the new focus on domestic growth. He...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 12-03-2008
INEOS' covenant waiver request causes concern

INEOS is the world's 3rd largest chemicals company. Its €7.29bn debt burden ($9.2bn) means that it is also Europe's largest issuer of high yield debt. This is an unfortunate combination, given today's chemical markets. Last month , INEOS was forced to ask its lenders for a waiver on its debt...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 12-03-2008
Dow Jones' 1st year fall worse than 1929

The chart presents a sobering view of recent stock market performance. It shows (courtesy of chartoftheday.com) the Dow's performance in the first year of all bear markets since 1900. Since its 2007 peak, the Dow has fallen more than in any other bear market, even more than in 1929.

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 12-02-2008
US entered recession a year ago - official

Last March, the blog supported Warren Buffett's statement that "by any commonsense definition, the US is in recession". I also wrote an article for ICB in April, " Building your defences " to suggest how companies could develop contingency plans to deal with the "real threat"...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 12-01-2008
Hope for recovery, plan for downturn

Surprisingly, our 7th European conference this week in Cologne (co-organised with ICIS), was one of our most successful. Delegate numbers were down, as companies cut travel budgets. But those attending said they had gained much more, than if they had stayed in the office. For a start, there was the opportunity...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 11-30-2008

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