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US entered recession a year ago - official

Last March, the blog supported Warren Buffett's statement that "by any commonsense definition, the US is in recession". I also wrote an article for ICB in April, " Building your defences " to suggest how companies could develop contingency plans to deal with the "real threat"...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 12-01-2008
The aptly named Mr Darling

In August, the blog welcomed the statement by UK Finance Minister, Alistair Darling, that the ' global economy was at a 60-year low'. It noted that he was 'the first western politician to abandon reassurance and instead to focus on the reality of current problems'. But it still took until...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 10-14-2008
GM, Ford, Chrysler may face bankruptcy - S&P

Ratings agency S&P warn today that a major recession might force the 3 top US carmakers to file for bankruptcy. Clearly they share JD Power's fears, noted yesterday , about the potential for an 'outright collapse' in global auto markets. S&P says operating cash-flow needs at the firms...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 10-10-2008
OPEC tries to hold the oil price

OPEC has called an emergency summit for 18 November 'to discuss the global financial crisis, the world economic situation and the impacts on the oil market'. Its president, Chakib Khelil, added that it was 'very likely' they would cut output. This morning's price is already down to...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 10-10-2008
The zeitgeist continues to change

The German word 'Zeitgeist' describes 'the ethos or mood' of a select group of people. Back in Januar y, the blog noticed that the financial zeitgeist was clearly changing. Today brings another example, from the Wall Street Journal , normally a cheerleader for the financial community...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 10-08-2008
'The time for piecemeal solutions is over'

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has now increased its estimate of total sub-prime losses to $1.4 trillion, versus $945bn in April . And Dominique Strauss-Kahn , the IMF MD, has called for the major economies to respond to the credit crisis with 'a collective commitment by authorities to address...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 10-07-2008
'Demand and prices in free fall'

The moment the blog has long feared, and warned about , may be about to arrive. It appears that we may be about to revisit 1980, when for some weeks it seemed that demand for many petchem products had simply stopped. As Nigel Davis notes in an excellent ICIS insight article , we are not there yet. But...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 10-07-2008
Blue skies disappear

A year ago, the blog was in a minority of one, with its forecast for 2008. Its heading was ' Budgeting for a Downturn' . By contrast, the consensus post-EPCA was for $70bbl oil, debt market problems to be contained, and for chemical margins to remain at 2007 levels. This year's EPCA mood...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 10-05-2008
Bailout passes, Wall Street falls

'Buy on the rumour, sell on the news' is the classic definition of a weak market. So the US stock market's reaction to the passing of the US bailout is a worrying indication that further problems may lie ahead. On 19 September, the Dow rocketed to 11388 as the bailout was confirmed. Last...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 10-04-2008
China's export dependency grows

New light has been shed on the critical question of whether domestic growth in China, and Asia, can substitute for slowing western growth. It turns out, according to research by the Royal Bank of Scotland, that both have become more export-intensive in recent years, not less: • China's exports were...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 09-29-2008

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