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The blog in 2008

The blog is now 18 months old. It has a truly global readership, and as shown in the above map, is now read in 1244 cities and 89 countries. Its aim has always been to identify 'the influences that may shape the chemical industry over the next 12 - 18 months', and to 'develop useful insights...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 01-03-2009
Roubini on the 2009 Outlook

Prof Nouriel Roubini has long been correctly bearish about the economy, and was one of the first to highlight the deflation risk . In a new interview , he sets out his thoughts for 2009, and concludes: "I don't believe we are going to be in a depression - but we could end up like Japan that...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 12-22-2008
A "V-", "U-", "W-" or "L-shaped" recession?

There is now general agreement that we are in a global recession. The World Bank's new 'Global Economic Prospects' report forecasts global GDP growth of 2.5% in 2008, and just 0.9% next year. This is well below the 3% level that signals recession. And the Bank also forecasts that world trade...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 12-14-2008
Dow Jones' 1st year fall worse than 1929

The chart presents a sobering view of recent stock market performance. It shows (courtesy of chartoftheday.com) the Dow's performance in the first year of all bear markets since 1900. Since its 2007 peak, the Dow has fallen more than in any other bear market, even more than in 1929.

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 12-02-2008
Hope for recovery, plan for downturn

Surprisingly, our 7th European conference this week in Cologne (co-organised with ICIS), was one of our most successful. Delegate numbers were down, as companies cut travel budgets. But those attending said they had gained much more, than if they had stayed in the office. For a start, there was the opportunity...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 11-30-2008
Benzene hits a floor

Regular readers of the blog will know that it believes price movements in benzene have great predictive power. This is due to the fact that benzene is one of the oldest of the major chemicals, and has the widest industrial usage. Thus in March , when benzene prices hit a "ceiling", the blog...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 11-21-2008
LyondellBasell debt downgraded, INEOS seeks waivers

Current market conditions are causing problems for everyone in the chemical industry. But as the blog has long feared, they are particularly testing those companies with higher debt levels. On Friday, Moody's announced a downgrading of the Corporate Family Rating of Lyondell Basell Industries to...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 11-18-2008
Credit crunch causes demand destruction (2)

I gave an interview to ICIS radio at EPCA in September , in which I warned that the destocking process would go through two phases: • The first, which took place during Q3, was when companies destocked in response to the falling oil price, to a more "normal" level of stock • The second, which...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 11-13-2008
The blog's forecasting record

The blog's forecasting record is reviewed in ICIS Chemical Business this week . The blog's aim is to "highlight relevant information for the busy executive, and to provide relevant and actionable analysis of key issues". The article particularly notes the blog's willingness to challenge...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 11-12-2008
"A fundamental reassessment of the value of every asset"

"Our normal customers have no orders to place with us, and our credit department won't let us sell to others who might want to buy". The blog was given this plain-spoken assessment of current chemical market conditions by one of the majors yesterday. Coincidentally, US Fed Governor Kevin...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 11-08-2008

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