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A debate opens up

Peer Steinbrück, the German finance minister, has joined the growing list of politicians with a view on the current economic crisis. But his analysis differs markedly from that expressed by President Bush on Wednesday . 'The financial market crisis is above all an American problem', Steinbruck...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 09-26-2008
5 key questions about the US bailout

The proposal now before Congress to authorise the spending of $700bn to bail out Wall Street contains just 849 words. It avoids the need to go into further detail via its suggestion that the Treasury Secretary should simply have unlimited authority to act as he 'deems necessary'. But 5 key questions...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 09-21-2008
OPEC says oil market 'over-supplied'

This morning, the blog is awarding itself a pat on the back. This is because, almost alone, it forecast in mid-July that oil prices 'could easily fall $50/bbl to $100/bbl' in the absence of any military action on Iran. And it had the courage to repeat this comment on 4 August . It added that...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 09-10-2008
US house prices keep on falling

US house prices, according to today's S&P/Case-Shiller Index, are still falling quite sharply. As shown in the chart, they are now down 17% versus last year. The key influence, according to S&P, is that 'the markets that were the high-flyers during the recent real estate boom continue...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 08-26-2008
China's growth slows

China's growth rate is slowing quite sharply. Exports to the US grew just 9% in H1 , half the 2007 rate. In addition, ICIS news has reported that China's important textile industry has seen a 25% decline in orders, whilst US polyethylene exports to China are also slowing. And the above chart...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 08-24-2008
The nudist beach on Wall Street

When you're the richest man in the world, you can generally say what you think. Thus Warren Buffett reflected reality back in March , when he commented that 'by any commonsense definition, the US is in recession'. Yesterday, he probably ruffled a few more feathers when he commented on CNBC...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 08-23-2008
BASF reduce 2008 global GDP forecast

BASF have now reduced their 2008 GDP forecast from 2.8% to 2.4%. This may sound a small amount, but it means it is now in line with the Global Downturn Scenario set out in our Feedstocks for Profit Study. Previously, it had been just below our Base Case Scenario. CEO Jurgen Hambrecht still sounds confident...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 08-19-2008
Every silver lining has a cloud

I am currently lucky enough to be visiting Asia every month. This also gives me a chance to ‘check the temperature’ as regards people’s outlook on the economy. And I think its fair to say that the mood has moved from optimism to caution. Good news is tempered by its potential downside. Nothing typifies...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 04-13-2008
India feels credit squeeze

India is apparently facing its own subprime crisis . Banks have cut back on lending, as the Bank of India has caused real interest rates to rise to around 7%. Loan growth is already down 20% this year, with personal unsecured loans facing the greatest cutbacks. ICICI, India’s largest bank, has withdrawn...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 03-13-2008

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