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Hope for recovery, plan for downturn

Surprisingly, our 7th European conference this week in Cologne (co-organised with ICIS), was one of our most successful. Delegate numbers were down, as companies cut travel budgets. But those attending said they had gained much more, than if they had stayed in the office. For a start, there was the opportunity...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 11-30-2008
Benzene hits a floor

Regular readers of the blog will know that it believes price movements in benzene have great predictive power. This is due to the fact that benzene is one of the oldest of the major chemicals, and has the widest industrial usage. Thus in March , when benzene prices hit a "ceiling", the blog...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 11-21-2008
US equities and crude oil follow each other

An interesting note from PetroMatrix highlights the close linkage that has now developed between changes in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and WTI crude oil prices. The chart, showing market action on Thursday, makes the point very clearly. PetroMatrix's analysis suggests that "the correlation...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 11-18-2008
LyondellBasell debt downgraded, INEOS seeks waivers

Current market conditions are causing problems for everyone in the chemical industry. But as the blog has long feared, they are particularly testing those companies with higher debt levels. On Friday, Moody's announced a downgrading of the Corporate Family Rating of Lyondell Basell Industries to...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 11-18-2008
Credit crunch causes demand destruction (2)

I gave an interview to ICIS radio at EPCA in September , in which I warned that the destocking process would go through two phases: • The first, which took place during Q3, was when companies destocked in response to the falling oil price, to a more "normal" level of stock • The second, which...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 11-13-2008
The blog's forecasting record

The blog's forecasting record is reviewed in ICIS Chemical Business this week . The blog's aim is to "highlight relevant information for the busy executive, and to provide relevant and actionable analysis of key issues". The article particularly notes the blog's willingness to challenge...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 11-12-2008
G-20 tries to support growth

The G-20 was created in 1999, after the financial crises that had hit emerging countries from 1997 onwards. It includes the G7 group of major industrial companies, plus the main emerging economies, including the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China). Its ministerial meeting this weekend became...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 11-10-2008
TOTAL focus on lower debt, higher oil prices

TOTAL have adopted a very clear strategy for surviving the downturn. The results statement today particularly highlights their success in strengthening their balance sheet. Net debt to equity now stands at just 15.4%, whilst they are "maintaining a high-level of liquidity and divesting non-strategic...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 11-05-2008
Asian naphtha falls below $300/t

ICIS is reporting today that Shell sold open spec naphtha to Cargill at $267 CFR Japan, for the first half of January. Normally the naphtha: crude ratio is around 9.5: 1. But with January Brent at $66/bbl, the ratio is now just 4:1. The blog can safely say we have never seen it this low before. And naphtha...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 11-04-2008
Oil producers at a crossroads

The blog has been thinking about last week's leaked report from the International Energy Agency (IEA). This said that the world needs "to invest $360bn each year until 2030 to replace falling oil production and increase supply". The IEA based this sum on a new analysis of 500 oilfields...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 11-02-2008

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