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IEA says "world's energy system at crossroads"

The International Energy Agency (IEA) is the global energy watchdog. Its new annual report, just published , says "the world's energy system is at a crossroads", and adds that "current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable". As examples, it...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 11-16-2008
Russia's economy stalls

A few months ago, Russia's economy seemed to be recovering from its problems in the late 1990's. High prices meant oil revenues were increasing, and the currency was strong. Now, the combination of the oil price collapse and the credit crunch has reversed the position. Yesterday , the central...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 11-12-2008
The blog's forecasting record

The blog's forecasting record is reviewed in ICIS Chemical Business this week . The blog's aim is to "highlight relevant information for the busy executive, and to provide relevant and actionable analysis of key issues". The article particularly notes the blog's willingness to challenge...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 11-12-2008
4 tips for survival

Last month, the blog titled its 2009 Outlook, Budgeting for Survival . This week, the Financial Times has begun a series on developing recession survival strategy . Its key tips are: • Manage your cash. Don't spend money unnecessarily. • Keep a strong balance sheet. Have as little debt as possible...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 11-08-2008
TOTAL focus on lower debt, higher oil prices

TOTAL have adopted a very clear strategy for surviving the downturn. The results statement today particularly highlights their success in strengthening their balance sheet. Net debt to equity now stands at just 15.4%, whilst they are "maintaining a high-level of liquidity and divesting non-strategic...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 11-05-2008
Asian naphtha falls below $300/t

ICIS is reporting today that Shell sold open spec naphtha to Cargill at $267 CFR Japan, for the first half of January. Normally the naphtha: crude ratio is around 9.5: 1. But with January Brent at $66/bbl, the ratio is now just 4:1. The blog can safely say we have never seen it this low before. And naphtha...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 11-04-2008
Oil producers at a crossroads

The blog has been thinking about last week's leaked report from the International Energy Agency (IEA). This said that the world needs "to invest $360bn each year until 2030 to replace falling oil production and increase supply". The IEA based this sum on a new analysis of 500 oilfields...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 11-02-2008
OPEC cuts production, worries about demand

Two main factors weigh on oil markets. The first, as PetroMatrix point out in their latest weekly report , is that speculative players in virtually all commodity markets are being forced to deleverage their positions. Therefore, "the bottom will be dependent on the end of the firesale". The...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 10-28-2008
Oil futures focus on $50/bbl for December

Futures markets are taking an increasingly gloomy view of oil demand. And over the past 2 weeks, the volume of NYMEX contracts to sell crude at $50/bbl has soared 50-fold. But so far, as the blog expected, physical prices have stabilised at the $70/bbl level in advance of OPEC's emergency meeting...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 10-20-2008
Budgeting for survival

The blog prefers to be optimistic. But 30 years in the chemical industry has taught it to be extremely realistic. So it proposes 'batten down the hatches' is its motto for 2009. Chemical companies are likely to be sailing in some very rough seas, with treacherous currents and plenty of dangerous...

Posted to ICIS Blogs (Weblog) by Anonymous on 10-19-2008

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