With RGGI holding its 2nd auction of the year on June 4th and the EPA announcement earlier this week hinting at increased activity in the space, all eyes are on the US carbon trading arena.
Following the 2013 reform that saw prices jump from the price floor ($1.86) to the price ceiling ($4) in Q1 2014, tomorrow’s auction will be uncapped. Carbon trading experts from across the globe will be eagerly watching for the results of the auction and leading market intelligence provider, ICIS, has provided its expert view ahead of the unique CO2 allowance auction.
“Smaller companies are less likely to hedge their positions, putting them at higher risk to carbon exposure as prices continue to climb. Thus medium and small utilities are expected to be short and they usually purchase allowances on auctions.
“Based on the current allowance holdings end of 2013, 23% (75m) of allowances are held by non-compliance entities. Some of the bigger compliance entities hold large amounts of allowances, while other still need to buy considerable volumes to be able to comply in 2015.
“In the next three auctions, 54m allowances will be offered. Provided that compliance players and speculative traders will continue their bidding strategy as in the last year, only around 50% (27m) of that volume will go to compliance players. With large volumes going to compliance players in the most recent auctions, many smaller players could remain short. This could make it more difficult to comply unless they participate in secondary market trading.
“Even with the overall system being oversupplied, some players might not be able to meet their compliance obligation due to unevenly distributed banked allowances and many players participating in the upcoming auctions.
“With the due date coming closer and having only two auctions left in the second half of 2014, smaller entities without banked volumes are forced to be price takers and will have to give high bids in order to receive allowances. Thus we expect the price to increase significantly from the closing price of $4 in the previous auction.”
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