Established energy market intelligence provider, ICIS, has launched the German Spot Price Forecast, a highly predictive new price forecasting tool for traders and analysts operating in the German day-ahead energy market.
Leveraging the success of the predictive capabilities of the carbon market analytics developed by Tschach Solutions, the ICIS German day-ahead Spot Price Forecast uses a combination of sophisticated learning algorithms backed by the expertise of analytics experts. The resulting predictive analysis has proved to be particularly strong, including during volatile renewable generation periods.
The German day-ahead market is the most liquid in Europe, making reliable forecasts key if opportunities are to be maximised. The potential to make the most money occurs when the markets are most volatile – for example during difficult to predict consumption peaks or adverse weather conditions. This unique new solution is different from the traditional stack model commonly used in market forecasts as it has the ability to learn from past outcomes as well as taking into account a host of current market fundamentals.
Sebastian Stüetz, Lead Analyst Power at Tschach Solutions now part of ICIS, commented: “We are filling a gap in the market with a robust new price forecasting product that is based on neural network machine learning algorithms. The German Spot Forecast is dedicated to build confidence in German day-ahead trading. Its predictive value particularly extends to market situations of price spikes, negative prices, weekends and public holidays.”
Each forecast is based on a variety of inputs including high resolution weather data, latest capacity availabilities, power demand forecasts, wind and solar power production forecasts, fuel prices etc. The information is incorporated into ICIS neural networks which learn by identifying the patterns and key factors in the data. State-of-the-art algorithms continuously incorporate new data into the models and, uniquely, go on learning over time, thus becoming more and more accurate.
Subscribers will benefit from a forecast that takes into account input volatilities and predicts a price that is more in line with actual market activity. The German Spot Forecast tool also has usability features built in including showing forecasts for the next days, the option to select confidence levels, access to older forecast runs, and the ability to easily compare forecasts with the actual price movements that occurred.
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ICIS is the world's largest petrochemical market information provider and has fast-growing energy and fertilizer divisions. Our aim is to give companies in global commodities markets a competitive advantage by delivering trusted pricing data, high-value news, analysis and independent consulting, enabling our customers to make better-informed trading and planning decisions. We have more than 30 years' experience in providing pricing information, news, analysis and consulting to buyers, sellers and analysts.
With a global staff of more than 800, ICIS has employees based in Houston, Washington, New York, London, Montpellier, Dusseldorf, Karlsruhe, Milan, Mumbai, Singapore, Guangzhou, Beijing, Shanghai, Yantai, Tokyo and Perth. Some 350 of ICIS’s staff are journalists engaged in reporting market prices and news, and ICIS is fully committed to upholding the highest journalistic principles of verification, corroboration and authentication. ICIS has a compliance framework that along with its methodologies and business processes adheres to the requirements of the IOSCO PRA Principles.
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