Europe styrene to tighten but pricing will depend on benzene
Truong Mellor
28-Jan-2013
By Truong Mellor
LONDON
(ICIS)–Numerous scheduled turnarounds in March and April are
expected to tighten the European
styrene market, sources said on Monday, but it remains
unclear whether this will translate into soaring spot
prices.
The upcoming turnarounds have already been planned for by
many in the market, with many players in discussions
regarding supply for later this year as early as
December at the last European Petrochemical Luncheon
(EPL).
“We have been stockpiling since the end
of last year,” said one downstream producer, who also noted
that there were many roll deals taking place, with players
keen to move their positions forward in anticipation of
emerging tightness.
Styrene spot values have seen some price erosion
towards the end of January as upstream benzene values
continued to weaken, although traders agree that the
volatility on styrene has been less pronounced.
“We actually expected January to come down
further,” said one buyer. “Selling interest has been high and
demand is not great.”
Spot values for February were at
$1,700-1,720/tonne (€1,258-1,273/tonne) FOB (free on board)
Rotterdam this morning and looked set to edge up further, but
one distribution source said that with truck number around
€1,350/tonne on a delivered basis, anything above
$1,700/tonne was unworkable.
With styrenics demand so far failing to
demonstrate any major upturn, pricing for the monomer has
been largely driven by upstream benzene numbers, which have
recently showed signs of weakness amid lower pricing in
both Asia and the US.
While styrene availability for February is
tightening, imports from abroad are expected to begin landing
in Europe towards the end of next month. One trader estimated
that another 15,000 tonnes was destined to arrive in
March.
But despite the proactive purchasing ahead
of the turnarounds, planning for the upcoming months is still
difficult, as many remain wary of building large inventories
in an uncertain macroeconomic environment.
In addition to the turnarounds in Europe,
there are also planned shutdowns on styrene in both the US
and the Middle East. Some estimates put the total capacity
potentially withdrawn from the global market over March and
April as high as 900,000 tonnes – almost 25% of total
capacity for the monomer worldwide.
“Nobody wants to hold that sort of inventory,” said one
trader. “Then you get the issue of delayed imports, so that
can also lead to short spikes on pricing.”
Propylene oxide (PO) demand has slowed down in the first quarter
of 2013, with one PO/styrene monomer (SM) producer seen in
the styrene spot market this month, so those units are
unlikely to make up the shortfall in material.
However, tightened availability on styrene
may not necessarily led to astronomical prices if benzene
prices are under pressure.
The removal of this much styrene
production capacity from the market will free up
significant volumes of benzene, and with several phenol and
cyclohexane shutdowns on the horizon, this could put further
downward pressure on pricing.
European benzene players have struggled to glean any clear direction
in the market so far this year, with some aggressive bidding
combined with global bullishness pushing prices up while
better availability conversely helping bring numbers back
down.
($1 = €0.74)
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