LONDON (ICIS)--World oil demand in 2014 is projected to grow at a higher rate than in 2013, rising by 1.0m bbl/day, or 1.2%, from 2013 levels to average around 90.7m bbl/day, OPEC said in its monthly oil market report for July.
Non-Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries are projected to lead oil demand growth in 2014 with an increase of 1.2m bbl/day, while OECD nations are expected to continue to contract, falling by 200,000 bbl/day.
Gasoil and diesel are expected to see the largest share of growth in 2014, due primarily to transportation and industrial sector consumption in non-OECD countries, OPEC added.
However, OPEC said the world oil demand estimate for 2014 is subject to uncertainties depending on the pace of recovery in economic growth in the US, eurozone, and China.
“Oil demand in 2014 could be capped by the further implementation of policies targeting energy efficiency in the transportation sector, subsidy developments in some countries in the Far East and elsewhere, global weather conditions – especially in high demand areas – and the restart of nuclear power plants in Japan,” it said.
World oil demand growth for 2013 has been revised down by a marginal 12,000 bbl/day from last month’s report. Growth for 2013 now stands at around 800,000 bbl/day.
“The revisions are based on actual and preliminary data for the first half of the year, as well as the more sluggish-than-expected performance of the world economy in the first six months of the year,” it said.
Demand for OPEC crude for 2013 is forecast to average 29.9m bbl/day, almost unchanged from the previous report and a decline of 400,000 bbl/day from 2012.
OPEC’s July monthly oil market report also revised down estimates for 2013 world economic growth to 3.0% from 3.2%, driven mainly by slowing growth in emerging economies.
“In 2014, an expected rebound in the OECD economies should lead to global growth of 3.5%. US growth remains at 1.8% for 2013 and is forecast to grow by 2.5% next year. [The] Eurozone’s growth remains unchanged at minus 0.6% for this year, but is expected to rebound to plus 0.6% in 2014,” it said.
“Japan’s growth for the current year has been revised up to 1.8% from 1.5%, but is forecast to slow to 1.4% next year. Decelerating total investments and slowing exports continue to impact China and India. China’s growth in 2013 has been revised down to 7.7% from 7.9% and is forecast to grow at the same level in 2014. India’s growth this year has been revised down to 5.6% from 6.0%, and is expected to expand by 6.0% in the coming year,” it added.