Energy demand to grow by 35% in ’10-’40 − US ExxonMobil

HOUSTON (ICIS)–World energy demand will likely grow by 35% in 2010-2040, requiring the development of all forms of energy, US-based producer ExxonMobil said in its annual energy outlook.

Energy demand will increase because of population growth, better living standards and increased urbanisation, the company said. Nearly all of the increase in global energy use will come from countries that are not part of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

In those non-member countries, demand will grow by about two thirds, ExxonMobil said.

By 2040, the population of the world will reach 9bn, up from about 7bn, ExxonMobil said. At the same time, the global economy will grow by an average annual rate of nearly 3%, doubling in size between now and 2040.

The company stressed that the world must address increased demand by developing all forms of energy and by embracing technology and efficiency. Without improving the efficiency of automobiles and other sources of energy consumption, world demand could more than double.

Although ExxonMobil stressed that the world must develop all forms of energy, oil and natural gas will continue to meet nearly 60% of energy demand.

Liquid fuels such as gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and fuel oil will continue to be the main energy source for transportation because such sources are affordable, available, portable and energy dense, ExxonMobil said.

As a result, oil demand should increase by 25%, ExxonMobil said. That demand will be met by developing technology that can develop deep-water, oil-sands and tight-oil reserves.

Among the major sources of energy, natural gas will continue to be the one with the fastest growth, with demand rising by about 65%, ExxonMobil said.

Natural gas will supply more than a quarter of the world’s energy needs by 2040, and it will overtake coal as the largest source of electricity, ExxonMobil said.

Among other energy sources, nuclear will continue to grow − especially in the Asia Pacific region, where output should increase from 3% of total energy in 2010 to nearly 9% by 2040, ExxonMobil said.

Renewable energy sources, meanwhile, will grow by nearly 60%, ExxonMobil said. Renewables include biomass, hydro, geothermal, wind, solar and biofuels. Among this group, wind, solar and biofuels will make up about 4% of energy supplies in 2040, up from 1% in 2010.

Energy used for power generation will continue to be the largest component of world demand, ExxonMobil said. Demand from power generation should grow by more than 50% by 2040 − caused by better living standards and higher incomes.

ExxonMobil expects electricity use to rise by 90%, led by developing countries. Currently, 1.3bn living in those countries lack access to electricity.

Despite increased energy demand, ExxonMobil expects carbon-dioxide emissions to stabilise at around 2030 before declining toward 2040. The cause of this trend is market forces and public policy.