Strong oil demand in February and bullish forecast for 2014: IEA

14 March 2014 11:44 Source:ICIS News

LONDON (ICIS)--The International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday global oil supplies rose by 600,000 bbl/day in February with the OPEC countries producing most of the increase on the back of strong demand in the US and Canada.

Supplies worldwide reached 92.81m bbl/day in February. Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) contributed the most to the growth, with 500,000 bbl/day more to total 30.49m bbl/day.

Paris-based IEA, of which 28 advanced economies are members, noted oil output from Iraq reached in February a 35-year high.

The general improvement resulted in higher oil prices in February, with WTI futures trading above $100/bbl for the first time in five months on the back of cold weather and strong refiner demand, the IEA said.

However, both the WTI and Brent benchmarks trended lower again in early March ahead of planned refinery turnarounds.

The IEA also said the economic environment is improving and in 2014 emerging markets – “despite their recent volatility” – will account for most of the improvement in oil demand during the year, which the agency expects to reach 92.7m bbl/day.

The agency expects non-OPEC global supplies to increase by 1.7m bbl/day in 2014, representing the highest rate of growth since at least the early 1990s.

The IEA forecasts in 2014 global demand will expand by 1.4m bbl/day to 92.7m bbl/day, a slightly more optimistic forecast than that published by OPEC on 12 March.

The majority of the growth in demand in 2014 is forecast to be attributable to non-Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries in 2014, with non-OECD Asia accounting for roughly half the global gain, the IEA said.

Natural gas liquids (NGL) supply is expected to reach 6.56m bbl/day in 2014, up from 6.40m bbl/day in 2013.

On refining, the IEA said it expects crude throughputs to expand during the first quarter of 2014 by 1m bbl/day to reach 76.6m bbl/day.

Robust growth [in refining] in the US, the Middle East and Russia is partly offset by contracting runs in Asia and Europe. Seasonal maintenance is set to curb refinery activity to a low of 74.8m bbl/day in April, taking global runs to 75.9m bbl/day on average for Q2 2014, or up 1m bbl/day year-on-year,” said the IEA.

The IEA added oil markets have not been too affected by the Ukrainian crisis as the country is not a major transit country for Russian oil sold to the West, it said.


Global oil supplies (left) and refining crude throughputs.

opec and non-opec oil supply y-o-yglobal refining

Source: International Energy Agency

 

By Jonathan Lopez