March crude supply fell by 1.2m bbl/day on lower OPEC output – IEA

Jonathan Lopez

11-Apr-2014

IEALONDON (ICIS)–Global crude oil supplies fell in March by 1.2m bbl/day month on month, with a lower output from OPEC countries, although year-on-year supply is still 1.1m bbl/day higher than in March 2013, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday.

Total global supplies reached in March 91.75m bbl/day, 1.2m bbl/day less than in February.

Of the total output per day in March, non-OPEC countries produced 55.7m bbl/day, down 300,000 bbl/day, and OPEC members’ output stood at 29.62m bbl/day, down by 890,000 bbl/day.

The fall in OPEC countries’ output came on the back of lower supply from Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Libya.

Among the non-OPEC countries, US output stood higher although supply from Europe, Canada and countries from the former Soviet Union (FSU) all fell, affected by maintenance, operational issues and higher declines at legacy fields.

The monthly report from the IEA also revised its forecast of total non-OPEC supply growth for 2014 downwards to 1.5m bbl/day, or 250,000 bbl/day less, compared to the report published in March.

Among the OPEC countries, Iran was highlighted by the IEA as a growing producer, with an increase in output compared to 2013.

“Imports of Iranian oil are also running well above 2013 levels for the third month running, with an upward revision for February pegging volumes at 1.65m bbl/day, the highest level since June 2012, before easing again in March,” said the IEA.

The IEA said refinery activity will decline seasonally through April on maintenances in the Atlantic basin and the Pacific, although it forecasts demand will rebound sharply afterwards to meet peak summer demand.

“Refinery activity is set to plunge by nearly 2m bbl/day from February through April due to spring maintenance. US refinery outages are expected to have already peaked in early March. European and Russian turnarounds are expected to peak over April and May, while maintenance in Asia Oceania runs is concentrated over May and June,” said the IEA.

As for global demand, the IEA said it remains practically unchanged from its previous monthly report, published in March, at 92.7m bbl/day. Neverthless, demand from Russia was revised downwards for 2014 on the back of the Crimea events, to 3.5m bbl/day, down by 55,000 bbl/day.

One month after the events in Crimea, the IEA said “market watchers are taking stock of their impact on oil markets. Given the still volatile nature of the situation on the ground, there are more questions than answers”, and noted how the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank have both reduced the GDP forecast for the country in 2014.

Crude oil supply (observed and projected), IEA

Source: IEA

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