IEA raises global 2014 oil demand growth forecast on stronger Q1 data
Tom Brown
15-May-2014
LONDON (ICIS)–The
International Energy Agency (IEA) on Thursday raised its
global oil demand forecast for 2014 slightly to 92.8m bbl/day
on the back of higher data for the first quarter of the
year.
The forecast increase is driven by an uptick in demand from
non-OECD countries, in particular India, China and Saudi
Arabia.
Crude supplies also rose 700,000 bbl/day in April, the IEA
added, with roughly half the increase due to production
increases from OPEC producers.
OPEC crude oil production was down 960,000 bbl/day compared
to the same period in 2013, but a 1.8m bbl/day output
increase for non-OPEC producers more than offset that
decline, leaving total global crude production up 820,000
bbl/day year on year during the month, according to IEA.
Despite the year on year decline in OPEC production during
April, output of 29.9m bbl/day indicates a rebound from March
output levels, when production was a at a five-month
low.
Nevertheless, global refinery crude output hit a seasonal low
in April, IEA said, on the back of plant maintenances in OPEC
and non-OPEC countries and seasonally low demand. Refinery
runs are predicted to rise steeply until August as more
refineries come back onstream and demand increases, IEA
added.
Turnarounds and outages helped to support a slight month on
month increase in crude prices during April, helped
further by rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
Despite fears over the impact of any escalation in the
current situation, which has seen the Donetsk region claim
independence following a disputed referendum, Russian oil
demand remained strong at 3.4m bbl/day in March, representing
a 5.3% increase and 13 consecutive months of growth, IEA
said.
OECD oil demand contracted by 0.1% year on year in
February and expanded by 0.4% in March, with the flattened
demand over the period potentially representing a
longer-running trend, as the bloc struggles to deal with
economic stagnation and structural issues, according to
IEA.
“Despite signs of a rebound in oil demand in 2013, OECD oil
markets remain entrenched in long-term
structural decline as anticipated efficiency gains
outstrip the effect of economic growth,” IEA said in its
April oil market report.
“The [second-quarter 2013 to fourth-quarter 2013] saw a break
from this trend, as OECD economic momentum swung quickly from
near recessionary conditions to renewed growth, but oil
demand gains look unlikely to outlast that economic bounce,”
it added.
Improved non-OECD oil demand is likely to
remain a fixture of 2014 due to gradually improving economic
drivers, IEA added.
“Momentum is likely to build over the course of the year as
the underlying macroeconomic situation improves.
Total non‐OECD deliveries are forecast to average out at
around 45.8m bbl/d in 2014, 3.1% up on the year,” IEA
said.
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