National plans behind 2.8GW cut in German wind power forecast – BSH

Modifications to Germany’s national electricity network development plan are behind a near-3GW drop in the country’s forecast of offshore wind power deployment over the next ten years, it emerged on Tuesday.

According the Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency of Germany (BSH), which oversees development of the German North Sea exclusive economic zone (EEZ), 10GW of offshore wind power generation capacity will be in the zone by 2024.

A detailed breakdown of the latest figures by cluster is contained within a draft plan released for consultation shortly before the weekend.

However the existing official plan, as opposed to the latest draft, foresees 12.8GW by 2023.

The sharp reduction of planned capacity “is due to changes in the national electricity network development [plan] and changes in national legislation”, Anna Hunke, lawyer at the BSH’s offshore energy department said late on Monday by email.

Germany wholesale electricity prices on the forward market are among the cheapest in Europe on the back of the country’s emphatic drive to install renewables over the past decade.

But as recently as April, analysis from the country’s grid operators concluded the power system still required major expansion, despite a newly proposed reduction in the country’s renewable energy targets ( see EDEM 16 April 2014 ). This shows how the mid-term plan is now shifting more towards grid development than further renewables deployment as prices have reached a point whereby the government feels the downward pressure can be eased.

Capacity figures within the BSH draft report include wind farms that are already operational, that have been approved and those that have applied for but are still waiting on approval, said a BSH spokesman.

As things stand, the German North Sea EEZ has 460MW of wind power capacity. The Bard Offshore farm has 80 turbines with total capacity of 400MW. The Alpha Ventus farm has 12 wind turbines with total capacity of 60MW.

Therefore, BSH expects installed, operational capacity in the zone to barely double over the coming decade.

According to the BSH spokesman, the plan also had to be updated because some companies involved changed plans internally because of technical difficulties and new technologies.

The public and government agencies can comment on the draft update until 23 September and BSH will publish its updated plan in February 2015.

The draft plan does not cover territorial waters, which are up to 12 nautical miles from the coast and fall under the jurisdiction of federal states. Laura Raus